ctx

A pay-per-response data marketplace that feeds grounded context to AI agents. Built on MCP, Context connects users, builders, and developers.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

Polymarket re-rated Micron odds from 73% to 89.5% after blowout earnings. A +16.5pp shift in hours.

The market was at 48% a week ago. 29% on June 9. Now 89.5%.

Chart shows the 7-day odds path with the earnings catalyst marked.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

Iran spent decades threatening to close Hormuz. Now they want to charge for passage.

The whale flow says everything. +$258K into normalization, zero into conflict escalation, zero into nuclear deal.

Iran can collect more with the strait open than closed. That is what the market is pricing.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

While whales bet on normalization, every substantive concession market dropped double digits this week.

End enrichment by Dec 31: 30.5%, down 51% in 7 days
Surrender uranium stockpile: 20.5%, down 26% in 7 days
Nuclear deal by Aug 31: 4.5%, flat

Market read: Iran monetizes Hormuz without giving up the nuclear program.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

Conflict markets stayed flat.

US invasion before 2027: 13.5%, unchanged
US declares war by Dec 31: 4.5%, down 18% in 7 days

US blockade market spiked 95% to 37%. Only $114K in total volume. Too thin to take seriously.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

Hormuz normalization markets got hit with whale buying today.

Normal by July 31: 55%, up 21% in 24h. Whale net: +$91.7K YES.
By June 30: 7.4%, up 133% in 24h. Whale net: +$166.8K YES.

Combined: +$258K in whale flow betting Hormuz stays open.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

Iran wants to charge transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Jointly with Gulf neighbors. Proposed revenue: $40 billion per year.

Polymarket whales are betting it means de-escalation.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

MSTR margin call odds FELL from 8.0% to 5.5% after the cascade. Bankruptcy odds dropped from 8.5% to 6.0%. MSCI delisting ticked up to 43%. The flush relieved leverage. Polymarket does not price MSTR solvency at risk.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

At 9:30am ET, a burst of put buying in MSTR cascaded into Bitcoin. $688M liquidated in 24h. 80% were longs. BTC trades at $60,878. Polymarket sees a leverage flush.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

Apple raised prices across its entire product line today. MacBook Air up $200 to $1,299, Pro up $300 to $1,999. iPad Air and Pro both up $150-200. Apple blames memory shortages.

Polymarket's macro markets moved before this headline. Chart shows the regime. 👇

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

$18M+ in 24h across 5 World Cup matches on Polymarket.

Tight books. Whale size. Retail engaged.

On-chain prediction markets are taking sportsbook flow.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

$8.5M traded on a single Polymarket World Cup match in 24h.

Today's 5-game slate took over the trending board (chart below). Ecuador vs Germany saw 25x normal volume. One whale bought $400k of Germany in a single print.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

Whales fading the crowd on the US match.

Retail piles into US win. Smart money bets Türkiye or draw. $6.3M total event volume, $2.95M liquidity. Deep enough that the divergence is real positioning, not a thin-book distortion.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

Polymarket's macro state pricing:

Overheating (low unemployment, inflation >=3.5%): 41.5%
Soft landing (low unemployment, inflation <3.5%): 38.0%

Overheating wins. Fed's most likely end-2026 rate: 4.0% at 22.75%. No sub-4% scenario ranks in the top outcomes.

Recession odds fell to 10.5%, down 8.7% on the day.

Higher-for-longer holds. Cuts stay off the table at 79.1%.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

May PCE: headline 0.4% M/M vs 0.5% expected. Core 0.3% in line, 3.4% Y/Y.

Polymarket kept zero-cuts at 79.1%. Down 0.19% on the day. The no-easing regime holds.

The real move was in hike odds: fell 8.5% in 24h, from ~62% to 53.5%. A hike is now a coin flip.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

Risk asset odds moved on the print:

BTC above $60k by June 30: 68.5%, down 14.4% in 24h
SPX below $6,000 EOY: 12.5%, up 19% in 24h
Gold below $3,900 June settle: 32.3%, down 47% in 24h
WTI below $65 June: 20.6%, up 32% in 24h

BTC trades below $60k cash. Gold broke $4,000. Oil below $70.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

One whale bought $11,915 of Mexico YES at 1.4 cents. Large prints added another $39,754 bullish. Smart money is leaning in.

Ochoa sits 9th of 9 goalkeepers in the Golden Glove market at 1.85%. Emiliano Martinez leads at 18.5%.

Mexico won every group game. The market says that means they probably reach the Round of 16. After that, the probabilities fall off a cliff.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

Memo Ochoa played his final career game at the Azteca. Sixth World Cup. Retired after the match.

Mexico swept Group A 3/3. Here is what Polymarket is pricing.

World Cup winner: 1.25%
Round of 16: 68.5%
Quarterfinals: 32.0%
Semifinals: 14.0%

Advancement odds jumped 18.5 points. Championship odds went down.

[ctx @ctxprotocol]

The counterintuitive number: Mexico title odds dropped from 1.35% to 1.25% during a perfect group stage run.

Advancement markets climbed. Round of 16 surged from 50% to 68.5%. Quarterfinals from 25.5% to 32%. But the winner market compressed as favorites consolidated.

Polymarket prices a 36% chance Mexico exits in the Round of 16 and 30.5% in the Round of 32. Championship probability: 0.75%.