Kim Kaivanto

economics & finance, normative & behavioural, academic & applied, blue skies & green fields

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

CRUCIAL has launched markets for the joint outcome between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) for the coming Sep–Nov, Dec–Feb, Mar–May, and Jun–Aug periods.

IOD touches the lives of millions.

https://t.co/x2VGT0bv3J

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

@LBC @ Jack: please get in touch; I’m very interested to learn about the productivity-enhancing AI tools you created.

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

Can AI governance reconcile caution and progress, or are we doomed to choose between safety and innovation?

An AI-generated summary minus technical jargon generated by https://t.co/ryvbA6kgkl. Excellent!

https://t.co/p79F7t4ndj

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

This paper presents a decision-theoretic model that simultaneously captures the Precautionary Principle and the Innovation Principle.

The upshot is that it also serves as a model of regulatory #sandboxing, which is topical due to recent interest in AI innovation governance. 1/2

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

Researchers to use the power of markets to break El Niño’s ‘Spring Barrier’

The Climate Risk and Uncertainty Collective Intelligence Aggregation Laboratory is rolling out 6 new El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) markets starting 9 June.

https://t.co/XDn4Sdg6aJ

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

The same applies to the 1% probability that prediction markets assigned to Robert Prevost.

The question needs to be, was this a well-calibrated forecast?
3/3 end

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

@mkonnikova @NateSilver538
You're both great at what you do, and I am a fan.

In RiskyBusiness you spent a lot of time reasoning through why the Conclave outcome was "not well predicted" by prediction markets.
1/3

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

BUT, just because it rains following a forecast of "10% chance of rain", it doesn't mean that the forecast was bad, or wrong.

*Calibration* is the gauge of forecast quality here: When the forecast was "10% chance of rain", what proportion times did it actually rain?
2/3

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

Main implication for AI innovation governance: frontier AI models are not suitable for regulatory sandboxing.

@TheFCA @CEPS_thinktank

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

This paper presents a decision-theoretic model that simultaneously captures the Precautionary Principle and the Innovation Principle.

The upshot is that it also serves as a model of regulatory #sandboxing, which is topical due to recent interest in AI innovation governance. 1/2

[Computers and Society Papers @WGOV]

The Precautionary Principle and the Innovation Principle: Incompatible Guides for AI Innovation Governance?. https://t.co/lMXoLQqxdU

[Computers and Society Papers @WGOV]

The Precautionary Principle and the Innovation Principle: Incompatible Guides for AI Innovation Governance?. https://t.co/lMXoLQqxdU

[Lancaster University Management School @LancasterManage]

@cue4ward @C_R_U_C_I_A_L Watch a short summary of the CRUCIAL project here:

https://t.co/VJqvZDi881

[Lancaster University Management School @LancasterManage]

When it comes to climate change and natural disasters, improving probability forecasts is key.

Dr Kim Kaivanto (@cue4ward) explains how @C_R_U_C_I_A_L assembles leading minds to provide more accurate predictions.

https://t.co/q4B2SAsqKR

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

For full details, see #CAHM24 bulletin:

https://t.co/fzlMQeSbhD

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

CRUCIAL Atlantic Hurricane Market 2024 #CAHM24 expert prediction market implies a 42% prob of >10 hurricanes this season, up from 37% last month.

For >12 hurricanes the prob is 23%, ie above the 10% freq over the last 20y, also above the 4% & 2% freq over the last 50y & 100y.

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

Not all storms reach 'hurricane' status. Even the short-lived max 40 mph tropical storm 'Chris' caused destruction in Mexico, and claimed 6 lives.

Since Beryl other forecasting organisations, such as Colorado State University, have also upped their forecast for the season.

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

Great progress in the acceptance and utilization of predecition markets!

Bodes well for our expert prediction markets for climate-risk outcomes at https://t.co/5vsFaBy02x !

https://t.co/D06bSHPj7z
@JennHughes13 @FT
@LancasterManage @C_R_U_C_I_A_L

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

Breaking News!
Code UFB!!!

The planet has now averaged 1.60°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline over the last 365 days.

I'm sure this will make the news worldwide and help change everything starting today.

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

Mushrooms sprouting out of complex animal life.
Life imitating @TheLastofUsHBO #TheLastofUs #TheLastOfUsPart2

https://t.co/EsjMGqg1VC

[Kim Kaivanto @cue4ward]

2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin 14 March 2024. #CRUCIAL

@LancasterUni
@LancasterManage
@UniofExeter
@BSC_CNS
https://t.co/QTDC3qzrvy