CB

LO large cap PM
Not financial advice

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

Writing outlook as I type this. Current hypothesis, blow off the top in Q1/H1 26.
Tax refund mask any consumer weakness, Trump incentivized to win mid-terms at any cost, AI returns are unknown, anything US govt does is justifiable if one uses big enough numbers.

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

Bought it
Good management etc, could be the Aussie $FIX

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

so haven't bought a small cap for awhile.

But Tasmea might be the pivot of the century

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@jukan05 You might say its a whole new world

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@citrini That ticker is genius

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

Yes

Jassy called ai an once in a lifetime opportunity
Google now telling you ai is an once in a lifetime opportunity

Do you have more granular data on what AI can do? Or better insights in compute demand growth?

If not, maybe consider at least a little exposure to AI.

[Pythia Cap: Partially Conductive @PythiaR]

Collected thoughts on $GOOG:

1) Significant chunk of the ATM will be used for employee SBC tax obligations (screenshot).

2) Ruth Porat is a very savvy financier and zero chance she was not involved in this in some way, meaning how this was structured (specifically: equity vs. debt) was very deliberate.

3) All the hypers can see future capabilities, cloud pipelines etc. you cannot, and are making investment decisions accordingly h/t @GavinSBaker @TMTLongShort

4) The entire supply chain is strained and $NVDA is showing that the only real way to continue your lead is to throw money around that nobody else can match to secure supply. $GOOG can also play that game, and given #3... they probably should.

5) For $GOOG, this is existential. Larry Page stated internally he'd rather go bankrupt than lose this race. During Google's early days the vision for Google was AI that understood the web, it's no surprise they would pull every stop out with that kind of outcome in sight, and relatively few competitors who can credibly compete.

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@insane_analyst

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@akramsrazor GS following UBS footsteps

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

Time to reshare my bull market mantra
Just because it is priced in, does not mean it cannot be priced in again.

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@akramsrazor

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@jukan05

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@malhotra_monal Snow beat and raise saved them

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

People dumpster diving into $INTU

Out of the 1k SaaS stocks that are down this year, you pick this one?

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@malhotra_monal Correct
-2% aftermarket
I think DD tomorrow

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

Shilling

Severe Correction Imminent: Shilling projects a 60% to 70% probability of a U.S. recession unfolding over the next year, with an acute risk of stagflation. He anticipates that a broader economic downturn will trigger a major equity market correction

Crisis averted

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@jukan05 @zephyr_z9 My working hypothesis is Elon is no longer motivated by monetary returns.
But he wants the best co in every next gen industry.
So yeah, he’s going to build xAi into a frontier lab, whatever the cost

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@HatfieldCapital It's okay, he's friends with Munger and Buffett

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@insane_analyst Everybody saying sk Hynix means micron is going to two trillion

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@zephyr_z9 Long NAND for 26 and 2027 H1
DRAM for 2027 H2
I believe capacity adds are limited in 26 and 27 for NAND, but meaningful for DRAM.

That is if you believe hyperscalers will use Chinese NAND/DRAM.

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@HatfieldCapital No reason you say?

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@jbulltard1 And the juicy part, Berkshire partaking in the ipo blowing peoples minds

Would be funny if they did it again.

[CB @cultivatedbeta]

@Kente_Clarke Where there is a will, there is a way.

Jassy, Zuckerberg, Musk, Altman, Pichai maybe Nadella see ai as once in a lifetime opportunity. Jassy said it twice on earnings calls.

They control hundreds billions of unlevered FCF with the ability to lever 3x
Everything else is noise