Convex Bets

L/S equity. Change my mind fast. Keep it simple. Post investment ideas and thoughts on markets and life. Not financial advice.

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

I have 5 years of buy-side equity experience working across hedge funds and a family office. Worked directly with PMs on idea generation and research. Currently looking for a new seat (remote/UK/relocate). I am a generalist, focusing on SMID caps across the US, UK and Europe. My approach is to focus on key variables that can move the stock within the next 1-3 years. I tend to tilt towards fundamental value-oriented ideas, but I am not attached to any particular style. Extensive experience in single-name shorts. Public write-ups and research updates here: https://t.co/5Nlkoff0zK.

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@TheKoopaGuy San Francisco

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

DM if you want to connect at the conference

[Active Investor Conferences @activemanagers]

We are pleased to announce the final agenda for the London Value Investor Conference on 24th June 2026. 🗓️ 24 June 2026 | London | https://t.co/tGVkFOMZC2

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@West4thCapital Got it, thanks

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

I’ll be in Las Vegas for the MicroCapClub conference from 16-18 June, then in SF from 19-23 June

DM me if you’d like to meet for coffee

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@WaterworldCapi1 Open DM. I will send you an idea

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@dipinvest Koyfin has the best screener compared to the cheaper alternatives. Otherwise, the options are limited either the two you mentioned or Koyfin.

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@joinyellowbrick For US companies, I’d start with the federal statutory rate + company-specific blended state tax, based on the 10-K tax footnote

Effective tax rate can be misleading due to one-offs

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@gregoryblotnick From observation, in the US most in fact don't care about it, but in Europe/UK it is another story (sadly)

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@W98AB Just move it to IB

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@MicroCapClub I just checked your application requirements. Rules for application state United States, Canadian, European and Australian/NZ traded companies. To confirm, are UK companies not accepted?

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@emilhartela Talk tomorrow then

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@emilhartela Would be happy to discuss the stock tomorrow, if you are free. I have some other thoughts re ## in Q1 and the rest of the year

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@emilhartela interesting article: https://t.co/Qst2Lc2vGW

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@emilhartela I am looking at data from semrush.

Nicokick Q1'26 total visits 21% y/y and down 33% q/q. Q4'25 was 99% y/y

northerner Q1'26 total visits -2.2% y/y and up 14% q/q. Q4'25 was -21% y/y

Total US (nicko + north): Q1'26 11% y/y and -20% q/q. Q4'25 40% y/y

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@thegresearch Got it, thanks

[Convex Bets @cvx_bets]

@thegresearch Yeah, I saw the numbers. Do you have any view? Bullish/bearish going forward? Why?