Christopher Wall

[Perry E. Metzger @perrymetzger]

🧵It’s impossible for people to keep in their minds exactly how vast the world‘s markets are, how many millions of people are involved directly or indirectly in the production, transportation, and sale of even the simplest product, like a wooden pencil.

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

In the past five years Japan seems to have gone from a place where almost no English was spoken to it now being spoken by literally everyone I have encountered in the transport system, convenience stores, and taxis.

[Perry E. Metzger @perrymetzger]

These devices are from a Chinese startup. I have no reason to believe they’re not fine people, but I want you to imagine it’s five years from now and these or ones from other Chinese firms are are in the hands of the PLA, are being mass produced, are much bigger, are much better, are armed, are autonomous, and are heading inward through the Taiwanese jungle to Taipei.

That scenario will not happen if the United States has comparable capabilities. If everyone is pretty much playing on the same level, then no one is going to do anything because everyone will know that the other great powers could answer back. We would continue to see peace, trade, and security.

But the nature of balance of power politics is that if one side or another believes it has an overwhelming advantage, it is far too tempting to use it, and then something bad usually happens.

Eliezer Yudkowsky, the Effective Altruists, and all the rest of the AI Doom Cult not only want to destroy a vital industry in the name of their vivid hallucinations, they would leave the US and the West completely defenseless against foreign countries that are laughing at their deranged beliefs, and which will keep chugging on with research and development without us if we allow a literal cult to terrify ourselves into inaction.

The world will be fine if we maintain a reasonable balance of power. The US will in fact be far more than fine; we have every reason to believe that we will be vastly, overwhelmingly richer and happier as a nation than ever before. AI, if allowed to develop, will bring us unprecedented economic growth, and with it, an unprecedented improvement in the lives of our population.

But, we cannot even expect to keep the peace and prosperity we currently have if we renounce the most important technological development of our time.

Europe has already more or less dropped out of trying to do anything but regulate foreign technology companies, and is going to end up far poorer and at the mercy of other players because of it. The US could easily follow Europe into self-destruction if it does the same thing.

Whether you like it or not, the world moves forward, and you have to move forward with it. The only thing you manage to do if you refuse to move forward is to end up at the mercy of those that aren’t as foolish.

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

Consciousness is the feeling you get when your brain works.
-Matthew Macdougal

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

@EndWokeness The socialists just won gridlock. Nothing will happen except pols appearing to fight for their voters desires. Happened once before in the 80s.

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

@ChrisJBakke Where is this?

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

@triketora Paris is 1-8 minutes depending on the lines and the time of day. New robotic trains are very timely. Older human operated and commuter rail less so.

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

@anshnasta96 @Jack_Raines They don’t need to “enforce” in Japan.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

I learned from someone with first person knowledge of the @Harvard president search that the committee would not consider a candidate who did not meet the DEI office’s criteria.

The same was likely true for other elite universities doing searches at the same time, creating an even more limited universe of DEI-eligible presidential candidates.

Shrinking the pool of candidates based on required race, gender, and/or sexual orientation criteria is not the right approach to identifying the best leaders for our most prestigious universities.

And it is also not good for those awarded the office of president who find themselves in a role that they would likely not have obtained were it not for a fat finger on the scale.

I have been called brave for my tweets over the last few weeks. The same could be said for those called out Joseph McCarthy during the Red Scare.

I don’t think it will be long before we look back on the last few years of free speech suppression and the repeated career-ending accusations of racist for those who questioned the DEI movement.

We are all shortly going to realize that the DEI era is the McCarthy era Part II.

History rhymes, but it does not repeat.

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

@russell_e_perry @lufthansa Trying to keep a landing slot in Vienna?

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

@adambenowitz @FT Thye probably need some help from a pro.

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

SBF learned the key lesson of socialism. It’s great up till you run out of other people’s money.

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

@elonmusk Seems like a child with unusually good verbal skills but little practical experience of the world.

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

@vwirtschafter @BrookingsInst Terrible! People sharing diverse opinions. Isn’t there a law against all this kind of speech?

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

@perrymetzger How did 4% come up with AGIs but not humans. Seems like a mindless response 🤣

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

@perrymetzger Many commentators stand to gain by “predicting“ a failure. It get them attention and , ironically, new Twitter followers that they can monetize. Their cost of being wrong is minimal.

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

@perrymetzger Making it hard to quit/end/stop service is a common tactic to make your product stickier. The tobacco industry really nailed this one!

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

https://t.co/TeJ6MYVZ9p

[UtterlyInteresting @UtterlyInterest]

If tea spread to your country by sea you call it tea, if it spread by land you call it chai. This is because the ports of Fujian and Taiwan use the coastal pronunciation "te", whereas Mandarin uses "chá"

[Christopher Wall @cwphxam]

@perrymetzger Yes, of course arithmetic does not apply if it contradicts you getting free money.