I keep seeing $TSLA price targets that incorporate Robotaxi valuations of $2,000/share, $3,000/share or more. Most erroneously assume TSLA somehow takes 99% of the ride-hailing business away from UBER and LYFT once TSLA is approved for unsupervised autonomy and is awarded robotaxi licenses in every state. Most of these analyses take a supply-based approach (# Cybercab fleet x days/year x hours/day x trips/hour x miles/trip x $/mile x TSLA take rate), without considering the demand side of the equation. Even if $TSLA took 100% of UBER and LYFT profits it would only add $1.50/share to TSLA EPS.
One can’t assume TSLA takes 100% share when TSLA doesn’t have a first-mover advantage, has no ride-hailing marketing, and hasn’t been approved for a single autonomous deployment license in any state yet (although TX is likely coming). We believe both Uber and Lyft will offer fully autonomous rides with no driver at about the same time as TSLA since they already have national platforms and infrastructure, and will employ other manufacturers’ self-driving cars approved for unsupervised autonomy.
We have seen this movie before where $TSLA investors assume TSLA will be winner-take-all and ignore that at least a dozen other auto manufacturers - plus $NVDA - are investing billions in unsupervised autonomy to ensure they can compete in the autonomous ride hailing market as well. Despite TSLA’s fleet, data, and compute advantages, unsupervised autonomy will prove no different than any other automotive innovation. TSLA will get there first, but regulators will ensure that others are approved soon after. And TSLA’s lack of marketing skills remains its Achilles heel.
I’m not criticizing $TSLA ‘s “toe in the water” go-slow approach to Robotaxi. One mishap or injury in Austin and the MSM will be all over this - particularly with no TSLA PR effort.
Investors need to recognize there is a huge difference in valuation between $GOOGL and $TSLA: GOOGL trades at 17.5x 2025 Non-GAAP EPS, while TSLA trades at 114x 2025 Non-GAAP EPS. TSLA’s robotaxi test with 10-20 cars employing remote drivers to some extent to ensure no mishaps does not YET warrant $ billions of robotaxi valuation potential. If the 10-20 TSLA robotaxis work as anticipated without mishap and the platform can be expanded nationally or globally (technically, infrastructure-wise, and legislatively), we would assume incremental valuation in our $310/share TSLA price target. Some investors’ estimates of $500B-$1.0T ($150/share - $300/share) in incremental TSLA valuation when the business concept hasn’t been proven out yet seems absurd.
In our pre-mkt summary for Subscribers: Trump’s threats to remove Fed Chair Powell spark concerns about Fed independence, U.S. dollar confidence; $TSLA earnings Tuesday will be bad; bigger issues are update on more affordable models, Austin unsupervised autonomous ride hailing test, FY’25 delivery outlook and brand equity taint; Earnings season moves into full swing as $GOOG, $INTC, $PG, $PEP, $CMG, $GE, $V all report this week.
Trusting President Trump will get this call right, Art Laffer just published an important article on the destructive impact of tariffs. The historical perspective—back to the 1920s—and the logic are the best I have seen. Let us know what you think. https://t.co/JQUvhcZ5ez
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