Cyn Research

Capital Markets Analyst
NFA

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

Some love for $META recently but not nearly enough so that the stock would trade at its fair value.

Meta has so much room to grow for years to come:
- Single digit % organically (user growth)
- Double digit % ad placements (volume) think Whatsapp, Threads, Meta Glasses
- Double digit % ad pricing (sustainable as AI analytics will make these ads more valuable for buyers)
- Individual Subscriptions
- Cloud Computing

...Then add margin expansion from operating leverage.

At 33% growth, which is accelerating, a 20X fwd. P/E, I simply cannot see how they will not outperform most stocks over the next few years.

Right now the AI suppliers (chips, memory, photonics) are hot but ultimately companies owning the customers and distribution will benefit.

Thats why $META is my second largest position today.

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

Wait for $BTC to pull back here.

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

Time to short $MSTR here for a couple of weeks

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

$BTC

This is likely only a bear market rally and we will see lower highs.

Actually a good spot to short here

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

$NBIS +48% boner candle. Don't short here

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

Start accumulating Bitcoin bitcoin:native

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

$SPY $QQQ

Of all sectors in the S&P500, the information technology sector is the most undervalued compared to its 5yr and 10yr avg forward P/E ratio.

The SaaS selloff likely did a lot to contribute to this. Nevertheless, I expect technology to continue outperforming.

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

Seeing some recovery already, lets see if this is the true low. Could see more volatility into hyperscaler earnings at the end of this month

$MU $NBIS $SKHY $GOOG $META $AMZN $MSFT

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

Imagine thinking we are doomed now AFTER many AI stocks are down 30-60%.

Shorting was valid before, but now the R/R is off.

Dont be a pussy and buy

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

Imagine thinking we are doomed now AFTER many AI stocks are down 30-60%.

Shorting was valid before, but now the R/R is off.

Dont be a pussy and buy

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

$60k more or less held for $BTC, I am expecting lower lows later this year.

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

$BTC approaching $60k

Bids around that level.

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

Is $AMZN the best risk-adjusted play in the stock market today?

Insatiable AI demand, forward P/E as low as during the 2008 GFC

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

$MU and $SK Hynix have one more large leg to the upside ahead of them.

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

$HIMS price action been pleasant these past few weeks

PLEASE dont let this be a top signal

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

$HIMS

My take on HIMS earnings. 4% growth not even bad considering brutal YoY Q1 comps due to GLP-1 business discontinuation.

Guidance is super bullish, 23% YoY growth despite heavy transitioning and investments still needing time to pay off.

EBITDA margin guidance 11% -> implies last two quarters margins of 15% (above HIMS historical average)

-> do we see the unit economics inflection already despite much higher investments first?

That would be super bullish. The only other option is them guiding far too aggressive.

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

Best opportunities in the market today?

$META $AMZN $MU

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

$AEHR

As nice as the story is, even when doubling 2028 revenue estimates of $120M -> $250M

And applying a 15X sales multiple (still fairly high) the stock would only return a total of 4%

There's simply better risk-adjusted opportunities in the market.

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

$BTC approaching $60k

Bids around that level.

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

Nothing better than spending 30-40 hrs/week monitoring the markets, macro, and managing a portfolio

then underperforming a simple QQQ ETF

AND getting long-term anxiety from it

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

Who's playing the $NVDA earnings tomorrow?

Might as well if you can't sleep anyways

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

$HIMS

My take on HIMS earnings. 4% growth not even bad considering brutal YoY Q1 comps due to GLP-1 business discontinuation.

Guidance is super bullish, 23% YoY growth despite heavy transitioning and investments still needing time to pay off.

EBITDA margin guidance 11% -> implies last two quarters margins of 15% (above HIMS historical average)

-> do we see the unit economics inflection already despite much higher investments first?

That would be super bullish. The only other option is them guiding far too aggressive.

[Cyn Research @cyn_research]

The market continues to sleep on $META

This is the easiest outperformance play for the next few years.

Not jinxing.