Nick Kephala

Deep value investor. Buy flowers when they look like weeds. Then water them and go and play golf.

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

@Tbone_Al The conduct of this CEO is beyond embarrassing. I wonder why Cunningham resigned as CEO? 🤔

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

@BlackCatASX $GRR

[Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader]

If Apple shares dropped near to $0. I would buy up all the shares, own 100% of the company, fire Tim Cook and make myself chairman and CEO. I would collect $112 billion in net profits every year and give all my friends free iPhones and MacBooks for life.

If Bitcoin dropped to near $0, what would I do with it if I bought all the bitcoins in the world ? Stare at the cute computer code?

That is the difference between a productive asset and a non productive asset

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

Could it go negative like oil in 2020?🤔

[Kevin Svenson @KevinSvenson_]

Don't worry, #Bitcoin has a promising support level coming up

. . . 😂

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

Many small cap fundies owned this steaming pile of 💩. They have celebrated their returns based on owning $DRO and $360. The party is over fellas.

If you own overvalued stocks, sell them now!

[DG23 @Godfrey04Dusty]

$DRO an interesting series of events

1. 3 Nov, 25m contract, 200m ttm rev kpi hit
2. CEO Oleg Vornik 14,806,833 shares issued, Peter James 2,750,000, Jethro Marks 1,460,000
3. Share price on the decline, 380ish time of issue down to 320s
4. 10 Nov, New contract announced for 7.6m, stock price pops back to 350. Contract withdrawn, was restating one already issues, "administrative error"
5. 12 Nov, Sub notices AH, every single share sold. The CEO now holds 0 shares in the company (still holds incentive through the 300m, 400m and 500m ttm rev kpi's).

Share price -29% on the vote of confidence in the company from management

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

@DividendTalks Look at free cash flow yield dude

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

@SixSigmaCapital If you like META at 620 you'll love it at 310.

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

@Mr_Derivatives Next stop $160 FOR $META

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

At $350 Zuck will reduce capex dramatically.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

$META is officially in a bear market, by definition anyways. It’s now -20% from the ATH’s set just 2.5 months ago.

RSI now lowest since the Nov 2022 absolute lows.

Today’s candlestick almost completely outside the lower Bollinger Bands.

Was up some 37% ytd as the high water mark. Now almost round tripping all of it.

Forward P/E lowest of all the Maggy 7’s by a bit now and dangerously close to becoming a teenager again.

This was a darling of the Maggy 7’s all year, what happened?!

Buy when blood in the street.

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

@StockSavvyShay Smart. Keep buying the dip all the way down to $160.

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

@joecarlsonshow $160 is a good entry point.

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

@mondyinvest I used to hold $RTH but sold out. Happy to share my views with you privately.

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

All financial metrics for Bapcor $BAP.AX are trending down. NPAT down from $125m in FY22 to barely profitable in FY26. Share price reduction of 67% over the same period.

But not all is lost. Director's fees are up. Presumably to reward excellence. Well done team.

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

So good...

[Kerrisdale Capital @KerrisdaleCap]

We're short $BMNR. Report at https://t.co/3bqQCVvys0. The DAT playbook has become basic & unoriginal: as near-identical copycats overwhelm the market, premiums are collapsing and the ability to issue shares well above NAV to boost ETH-per-share is disappearing. RIP DATs🪦🥲 1/8

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

100% agree. Feels like the back end of 2021...the market will bounce around at these levels for a while until the last retail investor gets set and then reality sinks in and next year might be ugly.

[Josh Wolfe @wolfejosh]

Full disclosure––i now own puts (550 strike thru Q1 2026) on QQQ (~45% weighted Mag7)

While Lux is hugely long AI from edge-inference to open source to dev tools to infrastructure to applications + AI in the physical world + i believe the top private companies we + other VCs own are not even close to fairly valued yet...and the destruction to SaaS businesses still to come (as companies go from using 60 saas providers to like 2 or 3 as AI does much of this internally)

BUT––it is very plausible my puts expire worthless and AI consensus continues + retail pours in. Alas you pay high price for cheery consensus: everyone i talk to is bullish consensus on data centers + energy needs+ GPU demand + the news cycle reaction to any deal that gets announced with "AI" involved and the balance sheet equity investments later used to book as revenue driving beyond organic demand (or ability to pay) are reminiscent of early 00s bubble telecom roundtrip deals + now leverage entering the system

My speculation is Nasdaq falls 10-15% possibly much more rehitting lows below 450 from today 608

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

When Australian companies say that are expanding internationally in a "capital light" fashion, this means that they want to go broke slowly instead of quickly. Smart.

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

@ArrowInvestor The only way they will use the money wisely is to return it to shareholders. But that won't happen. They'll find a way to burn the cash.

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

Betr's $BBT.AX clumsy and overpriced attempts to buy $PBH.AX should be used by business schools as a case study in how to destroy shareholder capital.

[Nick Kephala @cypriotstatsman]

You never know for sure when markets have topped, but there will be signs. 🙃

[Tom Richardson. @tommyr345]

Mike Frazis' fund is +83% off its April lows + the market maverick plans to launch an ASX-listed ETF October 1 to bring his unique style to more investors https://t.co/d83brRqXhc