Just in case you were wondering who the end users of $SIVE likely were:
Sivers lasers -> $AMZN (Marvell's 8-K SEC filings).
Amazon has purchase agreements for "photonic fabric" from Celestial, which maps to Sivers lasers through two-hop connections.
Marvell's share value under the agreement was $87/share, so Amazon is very incentivized to buy as much as they can (Marvell is trading at $139+).
These volume orders help $SIVE the most out of this supply chain, given their size.
This is just one-relation to Amazon, I wanted to point out.
But at $720m MC...
Markets missed Sivers as the critical laser supplier for the upcoming hyperscaler optical supercycle based on new architectural changes.
@javimedi95 Thanks, I believe the 28s are 10% and the 30s are 10.375%. 28s have $1280m o/s and 30s have $661m. Obviously will have to take into account amort during the year but still higher
@javimedi95 Opex needs to be bumped up quite a bit.. last year they had 90% utilisation and had $456m opex. You’re assuming they’ll have $386m in FY25?? 2/x
@javimedi95 $1.3bn revenues assumes 90% utilisation in $160k day rate.. my numbers have 1Q at $150k so to get average to $160k is a bit rich. And the 90% is also very high all things considered.. 1/x
@javimedi95 For interest I have c.$205m, maybe you’re missing convert interest. On top of this you have $135m a year of amortisation on the bonds. Then next year you have a large cash flow sweep in play
@RhoRider As i said, the only viable model for bitcoin mining is simply the generic mining model - sell what you mine, like $IREN. O&G companies don't hold all the oil they buy, and neither do metal miners... You need to generate cash flow otherwise dilution is inevitable
@blondesnmoney @TiehackCapital Not sure how you do it given how embedded they are in bond docs, risk models. I’d anything, if I see a company with a rogue credit rating, it would be a red flag 🤣
@javimedi95 @Jon_Costello_@CoronelMustard1 And I don’t agree that they will be FCF positive on just the 2026 contracts they have now. They also have a $135m per year amort payments and a cash flow sweep they’ll have to pay next year. I think they raised the equity because they knew things may get tight
@javimedi95 @Jon_Costello_@CoronelMustard1 I agree they have time but for comparison, by Q1 last year, Borr had already contracted 71% of its 2025 capacity. I just worry that the newly awarded 2026 contracts at $102k may indicate a strategic pivot towards prioritising
utilisation over pricing