Daan PRIVATE

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

We officially just started the next phase of the bull market.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

gm ☀️

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Have ZERO hate towards meme coin culture etc.

But meme tokens/cults "changing the world"...is an example of the really silly bull market narratives we develop to drive a market.

Profit from movements, just don't drink the Kool-Aid, it will lead to horrible judgement calls.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

You didn’t sit through 7 months of chop to start thinking about the exit already. $BTC.

You can endure the same amount of time again.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

In a bull market most things just do well. Not so hard. Yet we end up spending all the time chasing things and being reactionary.

In reality you should just be sitting tight/committed/content, focusing energy solely on controlling emotions and making rational decisions.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

New detailed report for members of #Bitcoin Live

"Send It" - Link > https://t.co/XuKwxOevkV

$BTC $SOL $ETH

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

True.
I’ve spent many years moving to as an emotionless and rational state of investing as possible.

It’s just at certain times, when things align so well, it’s important to do some bigger swinging and throw a little caution to the wind…within reason.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

I mean, the president-elect of UNITED STATES OF AMERICA is talking #bitcoin, has cabinet full of crypto degens, launching his own coin, did an NFT drop. And we know he's a degen too.

Could you imagine this 2 years ago? Hell we never thought we would get an ETF 18 months ago.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

34 week consolidation for $SOL best performing crypto of Cycle (that stayed strong while most shat)

$SOL to ATH within 14 days wouldn't be surprise now. This one could get silly in 2025.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Markets sure like a clear winner and clarity. Stocks hit their mid-point of the Weekly Cycle. Trend remains strong.

#stocks $SPY

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Gold's weekly Cycle is now finally in the declining phase.
The Silver bull run will have to wait to 2025.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

The fat lady is singing.

Congrats #Trump. Cya @GaryGensler good riddance.

Good for you @RealRossU enjoy the freedom.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Elon would be able to tweet about $DOGE with absolute immunity.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Leaning significantly Trump now.

Will take just one Blue Wall state to close it out now.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Way early, but this data doesn’t seem too dissimilar to 2020. Some small swings both way. Certainly no wave either side.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Really looking forward to getting back into ‘markets only’ mode again soon. Careful reading into things early, suspect we’ll get some wild swings if it’s tight for days.

Time to chill. Have a good night.

[Morgan Housel @morganhousel]

“The polls don’t tell us much, let’s turn now to the degenerate gamblers to see if we can learn anything.”

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Did a very deep dive on the election, state by state analysis, here is my analysis and prediction. It’s a close one folks!

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

OK, just so we're not thinking with only blinders on. Here is the #bitcoin bear case. Left or Middle translated Cycle, down into a (yet to be identified) 16 yr Cycle Low in late 2025. Making this the declining 4yr cycle (4 x 4yr cycles) of a 16yr cycle.

Here we would be showing either the upthrust of a distribution phase having just occurred or one more thrust to come.

Is there a rational reason to believe this? Well, yes on a long time-frame. I've maintained since the first 4yr cycle videos that the Cycles will at some point give us a bear cycle. Whether it's this cycle or the next, it will come at some point. There is no power law is my argument.

But to think that comes now versus later is the key question. In cycle theory, we place far greater weight on what has been occurring vs what "i am afraid" might occur. Just like trend following, we place greater weight and trust on the current trend and then look for "real" signs of a change in trend.

Some points to consider though. ALT's have been dead entire cycle. Faith (outside of money/bitcoin) in crypto being revolutionary is only believed by a core group now, meaning that the retail base is not growing and the use cases have not materialized. For bitcoin many will argue it doesn't care about "crypto", but I think that's still very important in attracting new capital. New retail speculators are not asked to believe in anything revolutionary anymore, which makes onboarding difficult. We're reduced to the simplistic/lowest form of speculation now, and it's come much sooner in the cycle that before. Like betting on two flies on a wall.

So what could be some of the price action signs this could be unfolding? Looking at the monthly, a close below the 10ma this stage of a bull market is a red flag. Also the current high set recently broke the consolidation trend and should follow through, so seeing price form a swing high and close below the lows of that candle would be another big red flag. So essentially a monthly close below $58,800 would have me worried. What chance would I give it? Firstly, probabilities based on arbitrary data are mostly useless, but let's throw out a number of 10-15%. What it is is a "possibility", and certainly not a zero one like many will believe.

Absent of this, worrying about a bear market or early cycle top is mostly based in fear of losing your open profit. The past evidence and cyclicality highly favors this being the most opportune time of the cycle. I just want you to know that by posting mostly or only bullish views doesn't mean I think it's a certainty, I do think of other outcomes. Having a high degree of confidence on an outcome does not make it a guarantee of an outcome.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

The Shake phase.

The election will determine how long it takes to the break out.