diogo

[ResearchPulse @ResearchPulse1]

According analysts from HSBC the 3B write down on $NVO capacity is connected with a broader focus on oral over injections.

That the 3B stems from reduced sourcing of devices that NVO had booked.

I don’t know if that’s true or not. But it’s very clear they have upped focus at oral for obesity. More resources put into R&D on new orals and improving bioavailability for peptides. (Reduce the amount of API consumption)

They have an oral amylin that has not been officially announced. I think this could be Amylin 355 since they have a new patent for a DACRA with very significant WL vs Cagrilintide.

No doubt that IF you can develop oral amylin with 15% WL and very low side effects as seen with injectable amylins, then you would have a multi billion dollar molecule.

Maybe they will reveal the amylin at upcoming CMD in September

$LLY $VKTX

[Reggie B. @reggiebblue]

Fetterman: Does Israel engage in a genocide?

Stewart: In Palestine? Yes.

Fetterman: I strongly disagree. There wasn't a genocide. The Jewish community actually experienced a true genocide.

Stewart: They've killed like 1,200 Palestinians since the ceasefire.

Fetterman: Yeah. That's necessary. It's entirely appropriate to eliminate them.

[Luís Figo @LuisFigo]

Today I join others from across our game and call for Gianni Infantino to resign as FIFA President.

Infantino has debased the office that he promised to elevate. He has lied, deceived and tried to feather his own nest at the expense of the game he is supposed to serve. 

He has lost the support of his senior staff, his closest advisers, the vast majority of people who devote their lives to this sport and even, it would seem, the FIFA Peace Prize winner. 

It is too late to save his dignity but it is not too late to save football. He should go. Now.

#Infantinout

https://t.co/j93k5MnlK2

[diogo @daaunon]

@SualemBetancor Pero si, totalmente de acuerdo que hay que tener mil ojos puestos en todo

[diogo @daaunon]

@SualemBetancor Creo que Tesla tiene muchas más limitaciones que las inherentes a una flota de coches autónomos estilo waymo. Tesla bulls seguramente que no lo ven así :)

Nunca he visto una entrevista donde Dara hable de Tesla, sólo lo escuché hablar de socios y por eso no siento q mienta

[GrapheneOS @GrapheneOS]

Revolut recently banned using GrapheneOS without any justification. They're falsely claiming to do be doing it for security reasons. In reality, they're enforcing licensing Google Play. Revolut doesn't enforce security standards. It runs on Android 9 with no patches since 2018.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

If UST reserves cannot be sold in a crisis without making said crisis worse by threatening a debt spiral, then UST’s are no longer fit for purpose as FX reserves.

In contrast, earlier this year, gold reserves were sold easily & quickly & de-escalated the crisis.

Let’s watch.

[Derek Quick @derekquick1]

$NVO Novo Nordisk had a recent -16% pullback after the largest 3 month buying volume in company history after a bullish er.
The stock is now trading around its 2021 price and is down approximately 12% over the last 5 years, while $LLY is up 344%.
This is the same general price area Novo traded at before the stock rallied more than 240%.
Despite being widely viewed as the two dominant companies in the GLP-1 market, Eli Lilly is currently valued at approximately 5.5x Novo Nordisk's market capitalization.
After updating my comparison across 9 of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, I still can't believe how many key metrics Novo Nordisk ranks #1 in.
If oral GLP-1 adoption continues accelerating globally, I believe the market may be significantly underestimating Novo's long-term earnings power.
Novo Nordisk ranks #1 out of 9 in
• #1 Highest ROIC 45.29%
• #1 Highest Pretax Margin 47.52%
• #1 Highest Net Margin 37.23%
• #1 Lowest P/E 10.45x
• #1 Lowest P/S 3.87x
• #1 Lowest P/CF 12.84x
• #1 Lowest EV/Revenue 4.50x
• #1 Lowest EV/EBIT 9.89x
• #1 Lowest EV/EBITDA 8.64x
• #1 Highest CapEx $13.51B
• #1 Upside to 52 Week High 44%
• #1 Global GLP-1 Market Share
• #1 Oral GLP-1 Launch Trajectory
• #1 Weekly Oral GLP-1 Prescription Growth
• #1 GLP-1 Prescription Scale
• #1 GLP-1 Brand Mindshare
• #1 Diabetes GLP-1 Franchise

Novo Nordisk ranks #2 behind Eli Lilly in
• #2 Highest Operating Margin 45.45% (LLY 47.30%)
• #2 Highest ROA 24.14% (LLY 24.54%)
• #2 Highest Revenue Growth 16.79% (LLY 47.44%)
• #2 Lowest PEG 0.39 (LLY 0.31)
Despite ranking #1 or #2 across nearly every metric I value most, Novo Nordisk trades at the cheapest valuation multiples among these 9 pharmaceutical companies.
5-Year Performance
NVO -12%
LLY +344%
That performance gap is remarkable.
Lilly has been one of the greatest pharmaceutical investments in history and deserves a premium.
However, today's valuation gap between these two companies is one of the widest I've seen between businesses competing in the same long-term therapeutic market.
Novo is producing industry-leading profitability while trading at valuation multiples typically associated with mature, slow-growth companies.
One of the biggest reasons I'm bullish is oral GLP-1s.
In 2024, GLP-1s demonstrated enormous demand, but injections remain a hurdle for many patients.
Millions of people who may never choose a weekly injection could be willing to take a daily pill if it helps them lose weight, improve diabetes outcomes, and reduce cardiovascular risk.
Early prescription trends for oral Wegovy have been encouraging, and competitors continue investing heavily in obesity assets, reinforcing how valuable they believe this market can become.
If oral GLP-1 adoption continues scaling globally, I believe this could become one of the largest recurring healthcare markets in history.
With today's geopolitical uncertainty, I continue to favor companies with exceptional free cash flow, elite returns on invested capital, industry-leading margins, and valuations that already reflect significant pessimism.

I've been buying shares and options over the last day, and Novo Nordisk has become one of the largest positions in my other Deep Value Fund.
If I had to hold one healthcare stock through a bear market today, Novo Nordisk would still be my pick. This post will probably get like 10 likes and like most will only get coverage when the stock is up 100% + , people will say why didn't I see this before... Same with $DK $UNH $LEU $TGT $WEN $CNC $OSCR the last year in relation to value thesis stocks I bought and did DD on. lol

[Damian Brik @eldaminato]

$MELI baja 4.7% en el after (llegó a estar 10% abajo unos minutos gracias a los bots) después de presentar resultados del 2Q26 por encima del consenso y creciendo a toda velocidad.

Me parece importante no caer en el lugar común de asumir que el balance decepcionó al mercado ni mucho menos. Y menos aún sacar conclusiones por lo que pasa en el after.

Cada vez vemos mayor nivel de volatilidad de corto plazo donde se esperan swings del +-10% post earnings en compañías de mediana y larga capitalización como si fuera algo normal. Y en realidad no es normal, pero es parte del paisaje al que nos tendremos que acostumbrar.

Pequeño recordatorio: el 7 de mayo cuando presentó resultados del 1Q26 costaba $ 1.870. El negocio creció al 49% interanual mostrando compresión de márgenes con caída de la ganancia operativo y EPS que activaron el sell off, en particular cuando el management aclaró que no saben cuanto tiempo durarán esos márgenes mas comprimidos pero que no les preocupa porque priorizan el crecimiento del negocio. Luego del sell off la acción llegó a tocar los $ 1495 unos días después. Desde ahí hasta el cierre de hoy rebotó 28.5% , quedando incluso 2.7% arriba de los valores que tenía previo a informar el balance del trimestre pasado. Volvió a los mismos valores pero en el medio "pasaron cosas".

La compresión de márgenes puede ser una excelente excusa para vender o tomar ganancias después de un rebote de casi el 30% en pocas semanas. Mas aún cuando el movimiento de la cotización resulta algo mas probable, al menos de super corto plazo, en el sentido de que luego de los últimos balances el mercado la castiga y vienen los downgrades de ciertos analistas que la cubren (hasta que un trimestre no ocurre eso y se da vuelta, matando consensos).

Miremos rápidamente algunos números que no dejan de sorprender:

Los ingresos totales crecieron al 50% interanual pero el costo de ventas viajó al 62%, en gran parte por el impacto del free shipping y eso pega en el margen bruto, por eso se comprime.

Nuevamente la provisión por cobro dudoso (ya comentamos varias veces cómo es el cálculo que hace la compañía producto del crecimiento en el otorgamiento de los cr��ditos y cómo impacta contablemente) es relevante para dañar la foto. La provisión fue de USD 1.27B en el trimestre, 85% mas alta que un año atrás y acumula USD 2.5B en el semestre. Quiere decir que el 13% de los ingresos o el 37% del total de costos operativos se fueron en provisiones. No es dinero tirado, es un mecanismo contable para prever posibles pérdidas. Es el problema de crecer créditos muy rápido en un portafolio que ahora es de mas de USD 16B. Hace un año era de USD 9.3B. Por eso le cuesta crecer al margen operativo y al margen neto, mientras el negocio de crédito se sigue expandiendo al 75% interanual. El NIMAL incluso mejoró, saltó al 20.7% cuando hace 3 meses era del 17.8%. El portafolio de créditos aumentó en casi USD 2B en 3 meses y la compañía mejoró en casi 3 puntos el margen neto para el cobro de esos préstamos. Y la morosidad se redujo del 8% al 7% en 3 meses para las deudas vencidas entre 15 y 90 días. De nuevo, mas clientes, un portafolio de créditos mas grande (que implica mas provisiones) en el que se cobra mejor y hay menos mora. Todo eso pasó en los últimos 3 meses.

Veo una compañía que acaba de marcar record de ingresos netos trimestrales con crecimiento del 50% interanual y +15% en 3 meses, con récord de clientes usando su ecosistema. Los compradores únicos crecieron 25% interanual. Los usuarios activos en Mercado Pago aumentaron 29%. La compañía vendió 44% mas de ítems que un año atrás y +43% en GMV. En todo ese contexto las inversiones tampoco desaceleraron: el Capex creció 54%.

El negocio en Brasil, producto de la campaña de free shipping que impacta en los márgenes, está creciendo revenue total al 59% interanual (GMV al 57%). El trimestre pasado crecía al 55%. Un año atrás crecía al 25%. Eso es un auto que pasó de viajar a 90 km/h por el carril del medio, a acelerar por el carril rápido en una larga recta a 190km/h. Y si, va a consumir mas combustible que yendo a 90, lógico.

México creció ingresos totales al 55% interanual cuando un año atrás era del 25% y ahora es un negocio mucho mas grande.

Argentina estuvo mas floja, creció ingresos al 20% pero el GMV aumentó 13% interanual cuando en el 1Q26 era del 5%, del -1% en el 4Q25 y del 2% en el 3Q25, con lo cual ahí hay una buena recuperación.

La ultima vez que el negocio creció a esa velocidad fue hace 4 años atrás, en la salida de la Pandemia, con la diferencia que ahora genera 4x mas de ingresos.

Que logre un margen operativo del 6.7% y un margen neto del 4.6% no es deterioro del negocio. Es el costo que está dispuesto a pagar el management en el corto plazo para crecer mas rápido, para ampliar su ecosistema y seguir liderando el mercado. Mas adelante habrá tiempo para priorizar los márgenes (como hizo Amazon por ej.), con el negocio seguramente mucho mas grande.

Sigo convencido que esa estrategia en el largo plazo compensará la espera.

En lo personal sigo manteniendo mi posición core en $MELI (es mi principal tenencia) y si el mercado prioriza la foto del corto plazo y castiga mas la cotización, estoy interesado en volver a aumentarla. No es recomendación de nada, solo comparto mi visión. Cada uno debería hacer su propio análisis antes de invertir.

Perdón por lo extenso, seguiré profundizando mas adelante.

[Fiscal.ai @fiscal_ai]

30 consecutive quarters of 30%+ revenue growth.

Insane growth at scale.

$MELI

[Demis Hassabis @demishassabis]

I’ve been working towards AGI my whole life, and as we enter this pivotal moment, I’m stepping into a new role as Chair of Google DeepMind & Chief Scientist of Alphabet. This will allow me to focus on long-term strategy, and accelerating scientific breakthroughs, including leaning into my work at Isomorphic to help cure disease.

I’m excited that @koraykv will be stepping up to lead GDM as SVP, alongside @joshwoodward and our exec team. I could not be more excited and confident about our amazing next chapter! 🚀

https://t.co/2WtlIIlTUa

[Alex Kendall @alexgkendall]

Huge news today: @TfL has granted Private Hire Vehicle licences to @wayve_ai AVs! This is a big step for our @Uber partnership to bring autonomous rides to London, starting with early access trips to over 100,000 Londonders who've already signed up.

Let's go London! 🇬🇧

[ResearchPulse @ResearchPulse1]

Market completely misreads $NVO Q2 ER

Huge upgrade of both revenue and profit.

Gross margin is reported 78.2%. Down from 82.7% last year.

This could easily be miscalculated as low margin on wegovy pill.

BUT in Q2 NVO did another smaller re-org in supply chain and stoped a new capacity expansion fill finish project in Denmark. In Odense.

They took a non cash 3B dkk writ down on capacity. They don’t mention specifically the project in Odense. But it fits with timing and an amount there around.

If we deduct that 3B then gross profit would have been 82% vs 82.7% last year.

During Q2 NVO had said to analyst that wegovy pill margin would be the same as gross margin reported earlier.

Wegovy revenue hit exactly analysts concensus at 22.7B. But it was actually wegovy injections in IO (all markets except US) that surprised.

Seems as IQVIA has overstated wegovy injections in US.

But the main surprise Ozempic was up. Some adjustments on previous rebates in US. So it landed 3B dkk or 20% higher than my estimate.

But Ozempic also did better in IO. Higher volumes.

Overall the numbers are a bit “muddy”. Ozempic US does move things. But even excluding that, ER was much better than anyone had expected.

IO sales up by 10%!

One very interesting information is FDa has accepted filing of MASH indication with wegovy pill. FDA decision in Q1 2027

If wegovy pill gets MASH indication, that’s a way for many to get insurance coverage for wegovy pill. That could potentially be a boost for 2027

With this Q2 ER SP should be UP and not down.

I expect less negative reactions tomorrow morning when stock exchange in Denmark opens. And then it’s up to management to shed more light on what ever concerns investor might have.

[diogo @daaunon]

@TheBioMAHunter @investseekers Sell and move on

[diogo @daaunon]

@investseekers Happy to add more.

At least we know it’s not a rare thing to be happening lately. Companies making tremendous results followed by 5-10% drops. Looking forward to that conference call tomorrow.

[diogo @daaunon]

@TheBioMAHunter @investseekers Every stock is a sinking ship till the price goes up and everyone wants to get in

[ResearchPulse @ResearchPulse1]

$NVO upgrades 2026 revenue and income
Guidance.

Huge huge surprise NVO had 7% growth in Q2 where everyone including myself had negative growth.

Also adjust guidance range much more than anyone had expected

$LLy $VKTX

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

UKRAINE: NO REPLACEMENT FOR BLACK SEA GRAIN EXPORTS

Ukraine's farm minister says there is "no real long-term substitute" for Black Sea ports for grain exports.

Alternative export routes will not reach full operational capacity before the end of August and can handle only around half of Ukraine's normal export volumes.

The minister said Ukrainian farmers are already facing an average 30% drop in crop prices, while losses from Russian strikes on Black Sea infrastructure could reach $1.5B–$3B.

He warned the attacks threaten global food security and will drive consumer food prices higher.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

U.S. PLANS BAN ON NEW CHINESE DATA CENTER PARTS

Reuters reports the Trump administration is drafting a ban on imports of new Chinese optical transceivers used in AI data centers over national security concerns.

The proposed FCC rule, expected this year, aims to prevent espionage, malware, and supply chain risks.

The move could hit China's Zhongji Innolight while benefiting U.S. rivals such as Coherent and Lumentum, though it may increase costs for cloud providers like AWS.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Translation: "Mr. President, you have repeatedly demonstrated in recent months that you cannot defend our infrastructure from Iran's missiles. So if you attack Iran again & our infrastructure gets hit in retaliation, we will publicly withdraw all US investments we committed to."