dust

wasted potential, my opinions are my own. clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right. here I am….

[dust @DaFinancialTool]

@QC_Capitals Nobody goes broke when they take gains

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@sairahul1 Check out arm price earnings +400x. With a forecast eps growth of 9%. That’s normal right?

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@jimstewartson Wow, US taxpayers money invested in the largest asset bubble in the last 100 years. Good luck guys.

[dust @DaFinancialTool]

$arm there is a bubble, who’s going to call bullshit? There is no scenario where someone can explain these 2 metrics as anything else.

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@CGInvesting10 Data centre development is running out of cash and an investment in assets with a less than 5 years life looks less attractive. It will be the victim of its own progress. The old metrics will come back to the forefront. Payback ROI etc. the maths ain’t mathing

[dust @DaFinancialTool]

$ARM price to earnings ratio 331x 10 times more stretched than NVIDIA. I don’t understand it. I’m not playing this game. I have zero confidence in stock market value atm. I clearly have no business investing. It seems to be pure sentiment. Zero facts. There is no bubble

[dust @DaFinancialTool]

$arm if you follow what Elon is saying here, then it indicates that Arm will have issues with capacity for the next few quarters at least, fab capacity is booked. I think arm is inevitable, but it’s a long play, short termists may be disappointed

[GeniusThinking @GeniusGTX]

Elon Musk says every new chip fab takes five years from start to volume.

Every AI company on Earth needed more chips by 2030.

OpenAI. Anthropic. Google. Meta.

Each one had built the budget. The chips didn't exist yet.

Capacity through 2030 had already been booked at every major fab.

"I ask TSMC or Samsung, okay, what's the timeframe to get to volume production?"

Break ground. Climb the yield curve. Reach volume.

Each stage took at least a year, and the curve refused to flatten.

Yield meant percent of wafers that ship. Yield meant survival.

Then Musk dropped the actual number.

"That, from start to finish, is a five-year period."

Musk gave the constraint a name: **the five-year fab clock**.

Five years. No shortcuts.

Musk, who had prepaid TSMC and Samsung through 2030, knew the clock.

His own AI5 chip targets production in 2026's second quarter.

A new fab needed to break ground, install ASML tools, train tens of thousands of operators, run pilot wafers, debug each process step, and ramp from one wafer per day to fifty thousand.

TSMC Taiwan. Samsung Korea. TSMC Arizona. Samsung Texas. All booked.

Every shovel of dirt accounted for.

After Musk drew the clock, every 2027 AI promise became unfulfillable.

Compute would have to wait for cement to dry.

Musk, on the suppliers who were trying:

"They're going balls to the wall, as fast as they can. It's still not fast enough."

What ceiling on your roadmap is bound by physical constraints nobody is naming?

P.S. If you want to stop overthinking, control chaos, and navigate any decision with the clarity...

I made a full playbook breaking down the timeless decision-making mental models used by history's greatest thinkers.

Comment "models" and follow @GeniusGTX so I can DM you a copy.

If you're new here, @GeniusGTX is a gallery for the greatest minds in economics, psychology, and history. Follow along for more similar content.

— Elon Musk ( @elonmusk ), CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, on Dwarkesh Patel's ( @dwarkesh_sp ) podcast

[dust @DaFinancialTool]

$arm its a little confusing, tiny volume in the trades and data centre funding is being constrained. But look at those lovely candles

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@brizzle_x @iamtomnash Good luck to you and I sincerely hope things work out in your favour. But I have seen this before and I can’t risk it

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@stockdatamarket The only way Intel will see growth is through foundry

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@WatcherGuru Intel fab making Apple chips based on Arm architecture. Very interesting

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@MarcosMillaYT So intel are going to fab chips for Apple based off Arm architecture. Arm did enquire about purchasing intel fab operations. So I guess it happened in a roundabout way

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@leshka_eth Everything seems to be fine, no bubbles at all….

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$arm Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on cash and Micheal Burry is shorting the Nasdaq and specifically $NVDA, I’ll be sitting this one out until I see $80-100. I made my money this year

[dust @DaFinancialTool]

@mikalche This is why, they have a value based off a pipeline 2+ years in the future, which they admitted they are going to struggle fulfilling.

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$arm

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@asianinvestors Sorry need to clarify it’s not good NVIDIA has a better eps multiple. So earning over cap indicates it 4 time the industry average. Suggests over values

[dust @DaFinancialTool]

@asianinvestors EPS is over 5 times NVIDIA

[dust @DaFinancialTool]

$arm eps 300 industry average is 66. Numbers don’t lie