Dagger

📈 FT Independent Trader & Investor | Quantitative Methods | Founder of Algo Succession concepts.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

Stats from this post:

Charts Posted = 63
Largest Gain = 206% $COIN
Smallest Gain = 8% $XLV
Average Gain = 49.53%
Median Gain = 42%
% of Charts 🟢 = 100%
% of Charts 🔴 = 0%
% Gains Totaling 63 charts = 3,121%

My time is valuable. Chart requests I reserve for those in Discord.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

The following sector ETF��s are either at/approaching harmonic pattern completions for bullish retracement setups:

$SOXX - semiconductors
$SMH - semiconductors
$XLF - financial
$XLK - tech
$XRT - retail
$XLV - healthcare
$XPH - pharma
$XLB - materials
$KIE - insurance

[Dagger @daggercapital]

The first recovery rally from Bitcoin’s bottom in 2022 had a 22.5% drawdown before rallying 62% off the drawdown low into Summer of 2023.

This week Bitcoin hit a 22.5% drawdown from its first recovery rally from the same identical weekly Bullish Shark harmonic pattern 0.886 PRZ.

Now fill in the blanks.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

$BTCUSD bitcoin:native Long Term Supercycle Projections + Corrections + Timeline.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

But not until after OPEX. Expect equal and opposite reactions (consolidation) until that’s over.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

$SPY 785-786

[Dagger @daggercapital]

6/26/26 - $SPY phantom wicks down -1.618% below opening price. Goes on a 5.42% rally topping out in 9 trading days before rolling over.

11/04/26 - $SPY phantom wicks up +1.618% above opening price. Dumps 5.52% below opening price in 1 trading day before reversing.

Today - $SPY phantom wicks down -1.618% five minutes after London Close on a Friday.

Interesting...

[Dagger @daggercapital]

6/26/26 - $SPY phantom wicks down -1.618% below opening price. Goes on a 5.42% rally topping out in 9 trading days before rolling over.

11/04/26 - $SPY phantom wicks up +1.618% above opening price. Dumps 5.52% below opening price in 1 trading day before reversing.

Today - $SPY phantom wicks down -1.618% five minutes after London Close on a Friday.

Interesting...

[Dagger @daggercapital]

Called for 57.7k fall of 2025 when Bitcoin was >120k.
We hit it summer 2026.

Looking forward to referencing this post in the future as well.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

$BTCUSD bitcoin:native Long Term Supercycle Projections + Corrections + Timeline.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

Equal and Opposite reaction to this morning's premarket move. The more you know.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

Until next Friday’s OPEX is over, I’d like us to be anchored off VIX 200dsma, which is ~755 SPY. This anchor is ideal for consolidation.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

read the last sentence.

now here's the reality; this was posted in Fall of 2025.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

It’s spring ‘26.

Bitcoin decouples late ‘25, heads to 77k.

SPY is @ 694.45, the golden ratio extension, resulting from solid Q4 earnings.

Then, SPY corrects to 615.85. Bitcoin corrects to 57.7k. Dip is bought. BTC couples up.

By spring ‘27, SPY goes to 789. Bitcoin to 166k.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

$NVDA bullish Shark retracement

[Dagger @daggercapital]

Until next Friday’s OPEX is over, I’d like us to be anchored off VIX 200dsma, which is ~755 SPY. This anchor is ideal for consolidation.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

Hey @Citadel tell your machine learning guy in Denver to retune his instrument or he’s gonna mess this up for all of us in 2027

[Dagger @daggercapital]

I do not want new ATH’s until December. My forecast is Dec 1, +/-2 days.

If the rate at which we recover is too fast after a Cycle bottom, it opens the door to 20+% corrections into the new year.

Jan 2025 cycle bottom and Dec 2021 cycle bottom are good recent examples.

You should not be making new ATH’s the same month of a 5-6% cycle bottom, not unless you are friends with Wyckoff.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

The rate at which we are recovering is concerning… Lord, help us

[Dagger @daggercapital]

I do not want new ATH’s until December. My forecast is Dec 1, +/-2 days.

If the rate at which we recover is too fast after a Cycle bottom, it opens the door to 20+% corrections into the new year.

Jan 2025 cycle bottom and Dec 2021 cycle bottom are good recent examples.

You should not be making new ATH’s the same month of a 5-6% cycle bottom, not unless you are friends with Wyckoff.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

For the initial relief, I’d like:

VIX 18.29
SPY 759
SPX 7616

[Dagger @daggercapital]

Lemme guess, your Furu told you to buy puts, and is still telling you to buy puts.

Algo-Succession has entered the chat.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

$SPY $VIX
If you have followed me for a while, you know the drill.
.exe

[Dagger @daggercapital]

One salient characteristic about the 3 cycles this fall is they were mainly futures driven with the exception of the 3rd and final cycle which was the High Beta shakeout.

If the next week going into OPEX creates consolidation, it could be futures driven, meaning, they breadcrumb you during the NY session, and drive most major moves overnight.

Short term overnight swings will probably get wrecked in most cases (both directions), similar to the Cycles in Aug and Sep. I think the smart thing would be sticking to late spring or summer expirations and wait for futures to drive the moves down overnight for entries.

Day Traders may be left with breadcrumbs, short term swings pose the biggest overnight risk, and long term expirations and common stock port adds seem the most suitable for the next couple weeks.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

The entire point of this post was VIX arriving to its 200 dsma as an anchor point for the market.

We are here.

PPI this Friday
Vixperation next Wednesday
OPEX next Friday

If they pin us, there’s a decent chance it’ll be here until OPEX is over.

So what do we do?
For every % change in price VIX moves above or below the anchor, anticipate and equal and opposite reaction until opex is over.

Perfect spot to begin consolidation before an end of year rally.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

For the initial relief, I’d like:

VIX 18.29
SPY 759
SPX 7616

[Dagger @daggercapital]

Algo-Succession concepts getting put to work 📈

[Dagger @daggercapital]

In light of Quantitative Exhaustion achieving it's Predicted Bottom today, the following sectors are either at/approaching harmonic pattern completions for bullish retracement setups:

.exe "Denial Rally"

[Dagger @daggercapital]

24hr trading and futures have changed the game. For both corrections, and recoveries. These tools have enabled incredible price stability. The market is highly efficient.

Adapt.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

Fall 2026 they breadcrumb you during the NY session and collect premiums, while they accomplish distribution overnight via futures.

Brutal reality for NY session traders not privy to the change in data reflected.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

Cycle 3 is complete as of 11/5/26

[Dagger @daggercapital]

cycle 1: -2.36% PB 9/1
cycle 2: -3.82% PB 9/16
cycle 3: -5.00% PB date TBD

This cumulative total is 11.18% as I stated. This was a surgical, multi-layered, highly efficient, sector by sector draw down.

On the outside it looks like 5%, which is what makes this incredible...

Under the "hood" we accomplished an 11.18% correction via 3 cycles, mostly driven by price stability for indices provided by 4 sectors (XLK, SMH, DRAM, XLC) while the other sectors corrected 8-20+% during the first 2 cycles.

The 3rd cycle was the final blow, and reserved for XLK, SMH, DRAM, XLC.

Now we're setting up the "Denial Rally", which will piss off permabears.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

We’ve got about 10-11% in corrections left for this year for $SPY . Either one big correction, or two 5-6% corrections.

We don’t have quantitative exhaustion yet, so most likely we will end up going on a nice “denial rally” towards 776-826 EOY.

By then, everyone who’s bearish will transition from their “denial” stage of grief, towards acceptance. And at that point, bears will be bullish again.

My thesis is it’ll take 2 months (Sep 1) to get the quantitative data ready for quantitative exhaustion, leading to 10-11% in corrections heading into November. Once quantitative exhaustion is triggered, it takes about a month to complete the correction, and another month to recover at new ATH’s.

Until then, market will likely grind higher July and August. Monthly quantitative data will be ripe for correction conditions, and then we let it happen.

[Dagger @daggercapital]

cycle 1: -2.36% PB 9/1
cycle 2: -3.82% PB 9/16
cycle 3: -5.00% PB date TBD

This cumulative total is 11.18% as I stated. This was a surgical, multi-layered, highly efficient, sector by sector draw down.

On the outside it looks like 5%, which is what makes this incredible...

Under the "hood" we accomplished an 11.18% correction via 3 cycles, mostly driven by price stability for indices provided by 4 sectors (XLK, SMH, DRAM, XLC) while the other sectors corrected 8-20+% during the first 2 cycles.

The 3rd cycle was the final blow, and reserved for XLK, SMH, DRAM, XLC.

Now we're setting up the "Denial Rally", which will piss off permabears.