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This post is for the serious students of investing strategy.
Thought I would highlight a few aspects specifically about Global and global macro investing:
1. In 1998 after the Asian crisis, wee decided as a company that we must diversify our assets and income globally. It came out of de- risking net worth and business. We got RBI permission to set up Global subsidiaries,remit capital and the rest is history. Of course, to research & invest globally, we put up a 30-40 person analyst team, and did extremely detailed research from Sony in Japan, to Carrefour in France, and to 100+ US cos. Clients were Institutions across the world.
2. That gave me liberation. In Year 2000: it told me that the only way to create a permanent Bull market in your assets is to have access to the widest possible universe of traded securities. Global Macro is an outcome of that freedom. You can dance & surf over waves around the world. Because there is always a giant wave somewhere.
3. The beauty of global macro is that I don't have to talk to anybody at all. I don't read any blog, see any video from any so called expert, I barely read newspapers except two in India and one international. Global macro is only about data and data alone, IMO. ( On a lighter note, I marvel at @riteshmjn on how he does so much!). Global macro requires no interaction with anybody just the dashboards. It is a hermit/ monk like work, which I love. It suits me. Stock level is noisy. Macro makes smoother return paths.
4. The key in the graphs below is: it shows how Sharp falls or bear markets are the only places where you can generate massive Alpha: in March, I was up 17%, vs minus 10-12% market. This is massive. BUT the trick is to lock it in. Oil gave me that alpha: ~20-25% position on March 2. Today: ~2%. The moment you make massive Alpha, you need to neutralize the positions that gave you that, otherwise you will lose it. Never overstay your welcome in Bear Market alpha.
As you can see, since April, I am moving with the broad equity markets.
But ~ 20%-25% alpha is now in my wallet.
So these are my learnings: having access to the widest range of instruments gives you an edge like nothing else. Of course you need to build your capabilities to understand & handle them.
The less the number of people you seek opinions from the more your effectiveness is going to be eventually. Take it from me: I have done the opposite and regretted it: bottom of 2009. Listened to people. Didn't cut my 1.4 year shorts even though I wanted to. Never again.
Finally, Global macro gives me the time to enjoy the fruits ( eg:beach + champagne) because it takes no more than a few minutes per month: once you get the broad trends, there is a very smooth ride.
Hopefully, Baccha Party 🎉 learnt something from this, esp the beach ⛱️
Oldest Books Ever Written
1) 🇪🇬 Pyramid Texts ~ 4400 years ago
2) 🇮🇶 Epic of Gilgamesh ~ 4100 years
3) 🇪🇬 Coffin Texts ~ 4100 years
4) 🇪🇬 Book of the Dead ~ 3550 years
5) 🇮🇳 Rigveda ~ 3500 years
6) 🇮🇷 Avesta ~ 3200–2600 years
7) 🇮🇱 Hebrew Bible ~ 3200–2200 years
8) 🇨🇳 I Ching ~ 3000–2750 years
9) 🇮🇳 Upanishads ~ 2800–2200 years
10) 🇬🇷 Iliad ~ 2750 years
11) 🇬🇷 Odyssey ~ 2725 years
12) 🇮🇳 Ramayana ~ 2500–2100 years
13) 🇨🇳 The Art of War ~ 2500 years
14) 🇮🇳 Mahabharata ~ 2400–1600 years
15) 🇨🇳 Tao Te Ching ~ 2400 years
Note: Ages are approximate based on earliest known compositions.
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, UNESCO, historical texts
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