Simon Daly

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@CommodMkt @robin_j_brooks @biancoresearch @cnbcAsiaTV Your providing very useful and insightful information for the investing public Jeff! Many thanks!

[Community Notes & Violations @CNviolations]

The most entertaining two minutes I've watched today.

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@dampedspring I’ll keep an eye out for it! Thanks!

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@dampedspring That’s fair. Do you feel that the SP500 has been more responsive to liquidity this year rather than earnings or impending economic slowdown. Seems like something else has been driving the rally?

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@dampedspring @JeffSnider_AIP You can see this in suppressed term premise also and this is severe in the Eurozone at present…

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@dampedspring @JeffSnider_AIP There are securities maturing in May that are also being bid well below fed funds. The collateral shortage is coming from years of QE and government austerity creating an under supply of safe assets. I think this is the point that Jeff is making

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@dampedspring @JeffSnider_AIP I think the point Jeff is making is that there is a collateral/liquidity shortage globally and not just in UST’ss. Michael Howell from cross border Capital has made this same point and has reiterated it recently. This same issue gave rise to the Repo mini-crisis in 2018.

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@JeffSnider_AIP So what happened with the very latest auction…which was very weak?? Has the defrosting finished??

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@RaoulGMI Yes more QE coming due to liquidity problems once again but will interest rates be cut all the way back down to zero?? Your macro reasoning has some inconsistencies chief👍

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@josephwang Thanks for taking the time to share your insights Joe! Great book too!

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@BobEUnlimited Great analysis! Thanks Bob👍

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@AndreasSteno Didn’t you say that inflation would be negative during the second half of 2022 in the US also…this too didn’t come to pass…

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@TotemMacro https://t.co/KQsc1p75ol

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@TotemMacro Governor Waller actually mentioned at a recent conference that US banks could be expected to raise deposit rates if they need to attract liquidity when reserve balances become depleted from a drawn out QT process. More competitive deposit rates would attract flows from the RPP..

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@jnordvig I read somewhere that the banks involved in calculating the pricing of inflation breakevens basically take the forecast from the relevant central bank and add a market premium/ discount, so if CB’s are forecasting 2% long term inflation…

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@BobEUnlimited But the risk for markets isn’t the potential for a massive fiscal drag which would be against the interests of all politicians in congress but the massive treasury issuance that would have to come after an impasse is resolved to rebuild the TGA account to fund a growing deficit

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@BobEUnlimited Zoltan mentions that the US could technically default on some short term obligations if the debt ceiling impasse drags on through the the summer…so it’s not just amateurs that are saying this could happen…

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@JulianMI2 By extension will bunds also take Eurodollars along for the ride, or how will that dynamic play out in your view? Eurodollars are tracking the treasury curve closely…

[Simon Daly @dalysv92]

@LukeGromen 🧵4) understanding of current market dynamics? It is fair to say that the Fed doesnt consider/connect the dots around global FX hedging dynamics, the US BOP dynamics and the current dynamics around the supply of liquidity in the primary dealer markets in the US?? Thanks.