Douglas McNeill

Portfolio of advisory roles. No.10 & Treasury special adviser 2016-24, latterly as chief economic adviser to the PM. Stock market analyst before that.

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

Funny how fashions change. Way back in investment 101, we were taught that “home bias” was bad – irrational and likely to depress returns. Now, some of the best brains in the business, like Andy Haldane here, see it as something to be encouraged.
https://t.co/WpCajjVfiZ

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

The fiscal rules are topical once again as the embryonic Burnham administration weighs up its policy options. I’ve written about how to think about this over on Substack. issue.https://t.co/IXMMckM2Af

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

https://t.co/3BQTLr94qq I appeared on Radio 5 Live's this morning to talk about the week's economic data and the implications of the Makerfield by-election. Link here:

[Narendra Modi @narendramodi]

A historic milestone for India-UK relations.

Delighted to note that the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement will enter into force on 15th July 2026.

This agreement will significantly boost our bilateral trade and investment.

It will also unlock numerous opportunities for Indian farmers, workers, MSMEs, startups and innovators and contribute meaningfully to the realisation of Viksit Bharat 2047.

Both PM Starmer and I, who are in Evian for the G7 Summit, are naturally very happy with the significant momentum being added to our economic ties.

@Keir_Starmer

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

I'm surprised that this flawed idea is still doing the rounds. I explain why on Substack. https://t.co/x2ibZVD4jo

https://t.co/q9i8qerqH0

[Stewart Wood @StewartWood]

The idea of removing defence spending from the scope of fiscal rules is gaining traction. Andy Burnham mentioned it yesterday (“There’s certainly a case, when we look at the pressure on defence spending, to consider that exceptionally outside of the rules”). What might this mean?

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

I appeared on #WakeUpToMoney this morning to talk about the latest ups and downs in the oil price, tea inflation outlook, and the options available to the Bank of England's rate-setters. Link here. https://t.co/wKHTwPAHYI

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

I appeared on @bbc5live this morning to discuss events in the Gulf and this week's changes to tax and employment rules. Link here. https://t.co/TsCV4qcAay

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

https://t.co/pVTdICzwTN
In the light of Robert Jenrick's promotion today, I discussed what it takes to be a successful Chancellor on BBC 5Live. Link here (0'25).

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

...to whom he was once an assistant. Kevin knows that central bankers must stay humble and avoid becoming doctrinaire, a mindset which will serve him well at the Fed. He’s an excellent choice and I wish him well with the Congressional approval process and the challenges beyond.

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

I’ve been fortunate enough to meet Kevin Warsh a few times in recent years and always found him very impressive, partly thanks to his keen awareness of the limits of our knowledge when it comes to managing economies – something drummed into him by the great Milton Friedman...

[Civic Future @civic_future]

Our programmes are very competitive, but if you or someone you know is exceptional, applications are open until 8 March.

https://t.co/ecK9ze6ycH

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

I discussed the ups and downs of the gold price with @FelicityHannah on Today this morning - link here, at about 1'20. https://t.co/jyPAtwTzpF

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

I enjoyed appearing on #WakeUpToMoney on @bbc5live this morning alongside @_Anna_Macdonald and expertly hosted by @FelicityHannah. We discussed UK-China trade relations, AI and the leadership of the Fed.
Wake Up to Money - Deadline Day ... no, not that one. - BBC Sounds

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

I discussed the resignation of Richard Hughes from the Office of Budget Responsibility on @bbc5live this morning - his time at the helm, the role of the institution, and where it goes from here. It's at 1:39:00 here: 5 Live Breakfast - 02/12/2025 - BBC Sounds

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

One of the key findings of the OBR today, showing the average person with £250 less disposable income in the current fiscal year than it thought back in March, and £350 less next year, 2026-27.

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

The dilemma is that if this continues, then if and when inflation falls, so too will the growth rate of nominal GDP – and the debt ratio will then start to head upwards. (ENDS)

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

The optimistic take on today’s UK public finance statistics is that whilst borrowing is high – perhaps as high as 5pc of GDP for calendar 2025 – it’s not high enough to push up the debt ratio, which actually ticked down this month. (1/4)

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

Meanwhile, the deficit is not coming down in line with the government’s plans – it was nearly 10pc higher than planned over the first seven months of the fiscal year. (3/4)