Damon 🗳

Founder, Persian Vote Project. Engineer, Amazon. Computational linguist. Data nerd. Opinions are my own.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

Trump lost Orange County by 8.6 points in 2016 and by 9 points this year. On the surface, that’s not a sizable shift, but underneath a LOT changed.

This is how #OrangeCounty voted in 2020 compared to 2016. There is an undeniable realignment in many parts of the county.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@pikappforlife10 The swing district.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

California #redistricting draft maps were released today. First look at Orange County congressional districts:

Porter's (previously #CA45) would become more competitive.

Steel's (#CA48) would become a lot bluer.

Kim's (#CA39) would become slightly bluer and a lot more Asian.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@pikappforlife10 Nothing is final yet, so this could still change, but as it stands Anaheim Hills is still in the same district. If the draft lines hold, Porter would have the option of staying with 45 or "moving" to 48. ("Moving" in quotes because she lives in that new district.)

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@ocbulldog In a jungle primary she'd be the favorite. If she wanted the new district, Rouda would likely step aside himself.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@profnachos Yes. The new district would be north-south from Downey to Long Beach.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@SantGRey @Redistrict Yes, assuming they all stay in their old districts, but even then, Steel and Garcia would be on shaky grounds and could lose even in a *good* GOP year. So even 12 R would be a stretch.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@Redistrict I can't find more than 12 R seats even in a good GOP year. More likely a 41D-11R map in '22.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@Redistrict Porter lives in the new "North OC Coast" district (old #CA48) and can easily beat Steel there. https://t.co/uuHhUgX7Sr

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

Expanding on this with a better map:

If I were Katie Porter, and if this were the final map, I'd happily "move" to the North OC Coast district and comfortably kick Michelle Steel out!

On the flip side, the Inland district would be only lean-D, maybe even toss-up.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

If the draft #redistricting lines hold, these California Republicans would be in worse shape:

Nunes (#CA22)
Garcia (#CA25)
Calvert (#CA42)
Steel (#CA48)
Issa (#CA50)

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@jaxD39 @JulieSuchard Placentia would be in the new "Inland OC" (old #CA45) district.

Larger map:

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@MMorrow72151672 Porter could still win in the new "inland" district as it is Biden+4.5 and trending more blue. Levin would be in a roughly similar district, just slightly less blue.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@fullerton_life Yes. Corrected in the next tweet.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@D_Elms In Steel’s district, the new Coastal one.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@MeitavRoye @TylerDinucci Yeah, I meant Steel's district (old #CA48), not Kim's.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@TylerDinucci Ah, yeah, Steel.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@MeitavRoye @TylerDinucci #CA48 was Biden+1.5. She won by 2%. She wouldn't be safe in this new district at all.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@TylerDinucci I mean, she could stay where she is (UCI side of Irvine) and challenge Kim and win that seat instead.
https://t.co/uuHhUgX7Sr

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

Expanding on this with a better map:

If I were Katie Porter, and if this were the final map, I'd happily "move" to the North OC Coast district and comfortably kick Michelle Steel out!

On the flip side, the Inland district would be only lean-D, maybe even toss-up.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

@otiosebellicose Yeah, a part of Laguna Niguel would be in the "South OC/North SD" (old #CA49) district.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

Expanding on this with a better map:

If I were Katie Porter, and if this were the final map, I'd happily "move" to the North OC Coast district and comfortably kick Michelle Steel out!

On the flip side, the Inland district would be only lean-D, maybe even toss-up.

[Damon 🗳 @DamonMag]

The proposed district "Inland OC" splits Irvine and puts Katie Porter outside of her current #CA45. By giving the bluer half of Irvine to "North OC Coast," the old #CA48 becomes more D-leaning. If finalized, why wouldn't Porter stay in her side of Irvine and challenge Kim?