Daniel Waniel 𓆏

count your blessings. tummy toucher

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

I could absolutely tank a lobotomy

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

if linkedin puzzles have taught me anything it's that I'm a wordcel. Devastating

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

@Degen_CPA More square footage than I'm getting in gramercy park lol. Plus no backyard!

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

@realtimeai @joelgrus Just rich enough

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

@erwdoterw @PrefEquityPeter Fair lol

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

I don't believe for a second a Jump "quantum" sent you anything

[Ventry @ventry089]

A former quantum from Jump Trading sent me the source code of the bot

he said they fired him
for running it from the work server

when i opened the code i didn’t sleep til 4 am

gist of the code:

bot holds two websocket connections

simultaneously direct feed from Binance spot orderbook and Polymarket CLOB API

BTC price on Binance updates ~200ms
polymarket recalculates contracts with 3-7s lag

in this window bot calculates implied probability

compares spot divergence with contract price
over 8% - enters

btc does +0.4% on spot up contract at 53¢
model probability - 87%
bot buys

in 5 mins contract resolves at $1
20-50% per trade 100+ times a day

$284,719 per month off $1,300 bankroll

this isn’t prediction
it’s latency arb between CEX and prediction market

no need for $50k colocation $20 vps and clean code suffices

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

My brother lacks object permanence specifically for cups

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

@cremieuxrecueil @hopes_revenge I miss Big Lenny

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

@BecauseCulture @BoringBiz_ Tell that to the boomer MD who started in the mailroom! Certainly not the case in the past 20 years though

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

@BecauseCulture @BoringBiz_ In most high finance you could make that argument, but I bet you could count the number of C students at millennium or rentech combined on one hand

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

Turns out the "go monk mode and grind math" people were right all along...

[brian @bdguan]

ladies, this is the best time to marry me.

i’m about to become rich, but if you marry me now you were with me before I made it. which makes you much more attractive.

if you wait until i get rich, i’ll have too many options + will wonder if you only want me for my money.

hurry.

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

@RampCapitalLLC Christopher ward twelve in titanium

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

@EmmAriEscobar @Whisgoon R|A is hysterical

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

I've seen fewer empty beer cans at frat parties than I have in Connecticut gas station trash bins

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

@hamptonism If you start, each of your turns is twice as large as your friend's. 2x+x=1 >> 2x = 2/3

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

@BlackSwan_ptf Man's never heard of risk neutral probability. The probability in the binomial model is a function of u,d,r, not actual probability of the stock price going up. This question is actually about interest rates

[Daniel Waniel 𓆏 @Daniel__waniel]

@magdajtaylor You!