Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL

KISS Philosophy, KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID. Management+Price+Future economics of the business

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

Trading at ~5.4x EV/EBITDA and <6.5x forward P/E, the downside feels heavily protected by a sustainable ~9% dividend yield backed by >75% EBITDA-to-FCF conversion. Execution and cannibalization risks are real, but at these multiples, the risk-reward is highly asymmetric.

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

Wall Street lazily buckets $BWMX as just another legacy analog direct-sales firm. They are completely missing the tech element: 98% of their orders are fully digital via app, generating a stellar 21% EBITDA margin and a return on capital (ROIC) north of 28%.

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

The synergy here is textbook asset-light expansion. $BWMX is plugging Tupperware—a household name with 95% brand awareness in Mexico—straight into their own pre-existing digital logistics network and 1.2M micro-distributors. The incremental cost to scale this is near zero.

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

The volume drop is real but it's a cycle. Premiums spiked, people dropped coverage. Now the big insurers are cutting rates. Coverage comes back, volumes come back. Buying $CPRT at 21x PE, 34% below its historical average, while waiting for that seems like a fine trade.

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

$CPRT down 46% from highs. Everyone's panicking about insurance volumes. Meanwhile: zero debt, $5.5B cash, $1.6B in buybacks this year, and operating margins at 37%. The business is fine. The stock is pricing in a broken thesis. It's not broken.

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

What people miss on $CPRT: total loss frequency was 15% in 2015, it's 24% today. A bumper hit used to cost $1,200. Now it's $2,800 — radar recalibration. Insurers total the car. Happens more every year as vehicles get more complex. 40 year trend, no signs of stopping.

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

#na9
There are many things that don't quite add up for me about this "friendly" acquisition. Seeing the market price, capped at 81 plus 1 dividend, it seems I'm not the only one.

I have my reservations that this will end as the guide says.

[Martin Pelletier @MPelletierCIO]

This is probably one of the most serious risks to the global equity market and so few see it.

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

#na9 quietly partnered with Cursor and Addverb — AI dev tools meets warehouse robotics. Stock at €36, analysts targeting €80. The market is sleeping on this one.

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

$bwmx

BeFra announced the successful completion of its previously announced acquisition of 100% of the Tupperware brand’s operating assets in Latin America, primarily in Mexico and Brazil

Calculate the new EPS. Connect the dots.

[Miguel Dabán Baines-MDBbolsa @MDBBolsa]

S&P GLOBAL $SPGI : Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference

La dirección dejó mensajes muy potentes:
• 8T$ de deuda vencen hasta 2028, creando un maturity wall históricamente alto para Ratings.
• La emisión Investment Grade sigue muy fuerte incluso excluyendo hyperscalers.
• Además, ya empiezan a reaparecer operaciones grandes de M&A.

Hace 5 años, incluso la propia CEO pensaban que modelos como Snowflake, Databricks o los frontier LLMs podrían desintermediar Market Intelligence.

La compañía viene a decir lo contrario: cuanto más complejo es el ecosistema de datos, más valor tiene una fuente trusted.

De hecho, comentaron el caso de un gran banco que probó un frontier model en sandbox y tuvo que apagarlo rápidamente en producción porque no podían confiar en el output.

En mercados financieros regulados, una respuesta rápida pero incorrecta no sirve. El coste del error es enorme. El cliente necesita confiar en el dato y la responsabilidad reputacional acaba recayendo sobre S&P, no sobre el LLM.

Además:
• La mayoría de su IP ni siquiera es pública.
• Los clientes quieren respuestas “de S&P”.
• Y muchos seguirán usando workflows dentro de Cap IQ y las plataformas propietarias, simplemente con IA integrada encima.

El mercado probablemente sobreestima cuánto riesgo real tiene aquí el modelo seat-based:
• Cap IQ Pro es <6% de ingresos del grupo.
• Y solo ~20% de Market Intelligence sigue dependiendo de licencias por asiento.

La IA probablemente cambie la interfaz. Pero no necesariamente destruye el moat si sigues controlando el dato, el workflow y la confianza del cliente.

Y sinceramente, cuanto más escucho a management hablar del tema, más me parece que S&P puede terminar siendo uno de los grandes “AI enablers” del sector financiero, no una víctima de la IA.

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

@InvertirDesde0 @robchamo Completamente innecesarios

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

@AlvaroLens El+71% neto viene sobre todo de una tasa impositiva normalizada y menos extraordinarios q el año pasado, con ingresos casi planos. El FCF de -0,3M€ y DSO subiendo a 86 días justifican el castigo. Lo bueno es q los márgenes operativos aguantan; el reto es puramente de circulante

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

#na9
Nagarro’s Q1 shows a clear disconnect. While net profit surged 71% and margins remain solid, the market is rightfully punishing the stock due to cash flow metrics. Historically, investors here are ruthless when FCF takes a hit and DSO worsens, regardless of guidance

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

Looking ahead, the long-term thesis remains intact. As the temporary working capital drag normalizes and projects transition into recurring revenue, the 71% profit jump proves the underlying engine is still firing. For patient investors, this is just short-term noise

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

The mix of flat EUR revenue growth and negative OCF has triggered short-term alarms, overshadowing the operational progress. This sell-off is justified by optics: the market is pricing in the cash conversion lag and the DSO spike to 86 days. Fundamentals vs. Cash

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

$BABA Cloud is back. Q4 FY26 revenue grew 38%, driven by triple-digit AI demand. The 380B yuan investment in infra hit margins, but management is prioritizing long-term AI dominance over short-term GAAP. The shift to an AI-first giant is accelerating

[Fiscal.ai @fiscal_ai]

Uber spent all of its cash flow (and then some) on buybacks in Q1.

$UBER

[Daniel IC. PRIVATE CAPITAL @DanielAlGu1]

@robchamo Exacto