Daniel Gradwell

Professional economist at ANZ, full time property market observer and amateur footballer. All views are my own.

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

@WomenEconAU @masters_joanne @WomensAgenda Wow congrats @masters_joanne!! Great news

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

@zbollman @crushthemarket Hey Zach, APRA data for December say just under 40% of new loans were at LVR>=80% so that'd be the best proxy for LMI

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

Always getting asked where people/businesses can invest for a half decent return these days. I don't know the best answer to that, but I do know that lower interest rates usually means commercial property yields compress and values rise.

[bluenotes @ANZ_bluenotes]

Historically low interest rates are the catalyst for a drop in a number of key economic indicators explains @danielgradwell https://t.co/LDjFTisO4J

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

@JasonCannock @big_dubw @JameslaneANZ Looking good, hope the weather stays that way for when I get up there tomorrow!

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

@cherellemurpfry @JLL @ANZ_Research Have fun Cherelle, it's all happening in Adelaide! Changes to land tax could be a spanner in the works for comm prop though

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

@JasonCannock I thought your usual practice when it's cool in Melbourne was to head back to Brisbane! The pier snapped and floated away in Frankston, it's all happening down here...

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

Some good data in the ABS environmental accounts. Would be cool if it was released more frequently and more timely (already 2 years old). Our energy usage per person hasn't moved in the last decade - as well as changing our energy mix this would be a pretty good starting point

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

@AleckShivers Can't make that exact chart, but the ANZ/CoreLogic affordability report shows just that on page 10 for Sydney and 14 for Melbourne. Mortgage repayments in line with history, but time taken to save a deposit is over 11 years in Sydney
https://t.co/qrIbb3a0m2

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

There have been a number of comments and articles saying affordability for first home buyers is the best in xx years. But affordability and mortgage serviceability are different things. If the price of petrol falls, it doesn't make a Ferrari more affordable.

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

@JasonCannock @big_dubw @jclayto72 @JameslaneANZ @HodgkinsonSusan Not bad! Cold and wet back in NZ...

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

What a win! NZ on track for a world cup double in 2019!

[BLACKCAPS @BLACKCAPS]

WE'RE INTO THE @cricketworldcup FINAL! @JimmyNeesh gets the final wicket, caught behind by Latham. We're off to the @HomeOfCricket!

#INDvNZ #BACKTHEBLACKCAPS #CWC19 @PhotosportNZ

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

Victoria bucking the trend of weak housing construction data, with the number of units currently being built in the state actually rising to a new record level (50,600). But won't last much longer as building approvals remain soft...

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

Confirmation in APRA's letter that the 2.5% buffer will be applied on the actual loan rate (excl honeymoon rates), not the headline standard variable rate. With plenty of rates now into the low 3's, serviceability calculations could come around 6% - a pretty material difference

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

Another sign of a better outlook for housing – this has been a good leading indicator of where building approvals are likely to go. Having said that, it’s suggesting finance availability will stabilise over the next 12 months, not rebound to where it was a few years ago.

[Felicity Emmett @felicity_emmett]

Our ANZ-Property Council survey shows a solid bounce in housing industry sentiment helped by a sharp improvement in expectations of credit availability #ausecon

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

@AleckShivers We'll find out in a few hours! But I agree, rates going back up feels a really long way off

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

Interesting how quickly sentiment in housing has improved after one rate cut - in previous cycles it's taken 6-12 months after the first cut for prices to stop falling. Combination of election result and APRA's proposed serviceability changes clearly having an impact too.

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

@DAJKeffa I think so too, especially given APRA's changes haven't actually come in yet.

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

Really interesting read. First I've learnt about how female dominated jobs were awarded lower wages because women “have to find their own food, shelter, and clothing; not food, shelter and clothing of a family”. Seems we've come a long way since then but still further to go.

[Peter Martin @1petermartin]

The flaw at the heart of that equal pay decision 50 years ago today: https://t.co/0xR0i34Ekg @leonora_risse @RMIT @ConversationEDU @ANUCrawford #ausecon #auspol

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

Victoria's population growth continued to slow over the December quarter, but is still very strong. The population grew by 140,000 people through 2018, which requires a whole lot of investment in infrastructure/housing/amenities.

[Daniel Gradwell @danielgradwell]

Really sensible commentary on Aus housing by @ricyet and @felicity_emmett. Plenty of excitement lately with auction results and daily price movements improving. But weak income growth and stretched affordability are still issues.

https://t.co/Rz0f8Ks5Wr