Daniel Michael 🛢

Petroleum Engineer • All views are mine • #WreckEm 🏈 | #NanookNation

[Erik Townsend 🛢️ @ErikSTownsend]

Crude Oil Tweeps: What are the most reliable/authoritative ONLINE sources of info on Hormuz traffic?

I've seen reports saying there's been a brisk increase in transits post the "peace deal" signing, and others saying there's almost no traffic flowing.

Obviously lots of biased people spinning the story to suit their own narrative. Is there a good, OBJECTIVE online source of real data on Hormuz traffic?

I'm particularly curious to know whether Iran re-closed the strait to passage after Israel's bombing of Lebanon that delayed the Switzerland talks.

cc: @anasalhajji @Rory_Johnston

[Adi Imsirovic @AdiSurreyEnergy]

Bloomberg
Exxon offered WTI Midland in Platts window.
Derivatives have weakened sharply over the past week amid concerns over ample supply including large volumes from the Middle East.
PLATTS:
WTI Midland, CIF: Exxon offered July 21-25 at Dated +$2.40

[Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA]

US. Blow-out sales data MoM and YoY, even ex Gas/autos.

Compare this with China's contraction (-0.6% YoY) shown yesterday!

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

API whoa

Crude -9.1MM
Gasoline -1.2MM
Distillates +1.3MM
Cushing -1.1MM

[Monetary Metals @Monetary_Metals]

AI has chopped off the bottom rungs of the career ladder.

Three graduating classes in a row are stepping into a job market where the entry-level jobs are gone.

@DiMartinoBooth says the potential of AI is real. Healthcare. Education. Areas that have plagued the US for generations.

"But don't call it a productivity miracle when it's also going to show up at the polls as individuals saying, 'I've got a four-year degree that I may as well use as toilet paper because I can't get a job.'"

The number of American teenagers expected to get hired this summer is going to fall to the lowest level since 1948.

And this is not just an economic problem.

Gen Z and Millennials make up 52.5% of the voting population. But what happens when their parents start joining them?

"What if their parents say, 'Not my children'? I co-signed on those student loans. I'm the one saddled with all of this student loan debt, and my kid has no opportunities. How am I going to vote?'"

When Gen X joins that party, it becomes a much bigger discussion than portfolio allocation.

[The Market Ear @themarketear]

BTC isn't a hedge.
BTC isn't tracking tech.
BTC isn't tracking software.
https://t.co/jWbyVO9ZwI

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

I guess Goldman will need to update this chart now.

🤷‍♂️

[Daniel Michael 🛢 @DanielMichael26]

@GasBuddyGuy @RazorOil My condolences, Patrick

[Daniel Michael 🛢 @DanielMichael26]

@Tejanobrown @wtxoil I remember visiting that museum many years ago. What an interesting place!

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Japanese crude oil inventory chart is one of the wildest through the Hormuz crisis thus far.

[Alasdair Macleod @MacleodFinance]

Gold & Silver Are Being Drained Out Of COMEX Vaults https://t.co/BHKxzAumTI

[Z4 Energy Research @ZmansEnrgyBrain]

Exxon SVP at Bernstein speaking to 2x recoveries in the Permian.

And also

Crude oil inventories nearing historic lows; price spikes to $150–$160 possible within weeks if trends persist.

#OOTT

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Wow. Huge jump in refinery throughput to 16.971 million b/d.

EIA reported -12.4 million bbls for crude. SPR release was 9.1 million bbls. Commercial crude storage declined 3.3 million bbls. Larger than expected draw came from the sizable increase in throughput.

Gasoline declined 2.6 million bbls and distillate declined 2.1 million bbls.

Total oil inventory draw of 17.4 million bbls.

Let the BACD continue.

[James Henry Anderson @jameshenryand]

$4,375 oz is approx $Gold's 200-day moving average

How far can it be driven below & for how long?

spot GSR still at 60 for now

[Julianne Geiger @JuliOnTwtr]

API Inventory Moves 5/27
Crude -2.8 million
Gasoline -3.199 million
Distillates +1.1 million
Cushing -2.875 million

SPR - 9.1 million #oott #crudeoil #api #gasoline

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

We are now in a world where Iran is jawboning the oil market down, but the White House is, effectively, talking up the market...

[Brandon Carl @brandonjcarl]

Very interesting data across 2,444 companies.

82% of tokens are spent on AI-generated bugs, rework and review friction.

[Daniel Michael 🛢 @DanielMichael26]

@jackprandelli @notabigdeal111 What API/quality ranges can we expect from that crude? Would it be medium-to-heavy?

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🚨Exxon found 11 billion barrels in Guyana's Stabroek block.

Now it's drilling the same geology northwest of Stabroek, off Trinidad.

Occidental just bought 10% of the bet 🛢️

The block is called Ultra Deep 1. 7,100 km² of ultra deepwater acreage larger than the entire surface area of Trinidad and Tobago.

Water depths: 2,000–3,000 meters.
Location: Same Guyana-Suriname basin trend that made Stabroek one of the greatest deepwater discoveries in history.

ExxonMobil secured the production-sharing contract in August 2025.
3D seismic is running now.
First drill decision expected late 2026📋

The deal:
→ Exxon: operator, 90% stake
→ Oxy: incoming 10% non operating interest
→ Initial work commitment: $42 million for seismic + up to 2 exploration wells
→ Potential long-term investment if exploration succeeds: $20+ billion

Why both companies are here?

Exxon is extending the Stabroek playbook westward same geology, new jurisdiction, contiguous fairway. If it works, Exxon has a second Guyana.

If it doesn't, a partner shares the cost.

Occidental is buying a cheap equity option on a basin extension play operated by the company that discovered 11 billion barrels next door.

Maximum upside.
Controlled downside.
Classic Oxy. 💰

The timeline:

→ Seismic shooting: now → end-July 2026
→ Data interpretation: late-2026
→ First well decision: late-2026
→ Potential drilling: 2027–2028
→ Production impact: 2030s at earliest

This is a 2032 supply option priced today at exploration-well cost.

Trinidad's Atlantic LNG and petrochemicals complex are running on declining legacy fields.

UD-1 is explicitly designed to replace that production base.

In a world where Hormuz is disrupted, Qatar is offline, and every Atlantic Basin buyer is repricing non-Middle East supply a new deepwater cluster off Trinidad in the 2030s is exactly what the structural supply map needs.

Exxon found it once in this basin.
Oxy is betting it finds it again. 🌍

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🚨Is he Middle East LNG era ending?

Qatar supplied Southeast Asia for decades.

Iran destroyed 17% of its capacity.

Now Thailand is in emergency talks with Venture Global for a 15 year US LNG deal.

Thailand is Southeast Asia's biggest LNG importer.

A large chunk of its supply ran through Qatar and Hormuz.

That supply is now offline for 3–5 years.

Thailand's emergency rewrite:

→ Venture Global (US) accelerated 15+ year SPA talks, happening now

→ Malaysia supply talks ongoing

→ Glenfarne Alaska LNG 2 mtpa over 20 years (signed 2025)

→ Engie + Gulf Development 15-year deal signed January 2026

Every single one of these deals is a direct replacement for supply that disappeared after February 28. 💰

🔍Why Venture Global specifically:
Already raised 2026 guidance.
Already signed with Vitol and TotalEnergies this month. Already has 4 tankers sailing to China.
A long-term PTT deal locks in another anchor offtaker into Plaquemines 15 years of fee income from Louisiana to Bangkok. 🛢️

The rewrite happening across all of Asia:
→ Thailand → US Gulf Coast
→ South Korea → BP portfolio supply
→ China → accepting US LNG despite 25% tariffs
→ Japan, Taiwan are accelerating non-Hormuz contracts

Diversifying away from Middle East LNG was a 10-year aspiration before the war.

It became a 12-month emergency on February 28🌍