I talk about Canadian ๐จ๐ฆ Oil | Low cost-of-supply permabull | Won some cool awards ๐ | Not a qualified financial advisor, but a very qualified SAGD expert โจ๏ธ
Marty, 2015-2020 wouldโve been brutal for CAPEX deployment, 2020-2021 was ๐ชฆโฆI think we did the best we could all things considered, maybe Justin Turd-eau penalizing leadership aligned well with getting our capital allocation discipline back, likely an unpopular view but something to think aboutโฆ
Much respect to Rich and the Suncor team for continuing as planned with their planned maintenance and prioritizing SAFETY and facilities INTEGRITY.
In my opinion, Ottawa lied about postponing maintenance for the sector.... remember how the Federal government promised our allies to boost production and postpone maintenance something, in my view without even talking to the producing companies.
Well, just looking at the actual data for April.... and zero evidence that any of the companies made any changes to their planned turnaround season. Example below...
Sad, mainly b/ everybody can say anything they want at this point, zero accountability, consequences and journalists likely underpaid and unfairly treated to have skills and motivation to understand these dynamics as of course government dudes will gaslight and tell some cool stories about something that may or may not have happened. This is the world we live in I guess, not just Canada....as per my Pakistani army general sources...
Now to the actual numbers:
The Apr-26 reported monthly OIL production rate for $SU.TO SUNCOR ENERGY INC. FIREBAG SAGD asset was 216,290 bbl/d. Previous month oil production was 240,273 bbl/d, yielding change in production oil rate of -9.9%. The average injected STEAM rate was 503,313 bbl/d from the identified 363 SAGD injectors, with overall Steam to Oil Ratio of 2.3 Source: AER, Petrinex ๐ซก๐ช
The Apr-26 reported monthly OIL production rate for $COP ConocoPhillips Canada Surmont SAGD asset was 151,235 bbl/d. Previous month oil production was 157,391 bbl/d, yielding change in production oil rate of -3.9%. The average injected STEAM rate was 322,142 bbl/d from the identified 193 SAGD injectors, with overall Steam to Oil Ratio of 2.13 Source: AER, Petrinex ๐ซก๐ช
$CJ.TO Reford SAGD oil rate plateau confirmed from my analysis based on my personal work. The team could optimize prd by further reducing subcool. Forecasting 6,500 bbl/d by August if no further adjustments made.๐ซก๐ช
Precisely. Gulf Coast refineries run complex cokers and hydrocrackers built for heavier feeds to maximize distillates. That structural demand keeps Canadian heavy blends like WCS flowing in, while the SPR's lighter 30-40ยฐ API profile can't substitute. Export light shale, import heavy โ classic mismatch that supports heavy molecules long-term.