Alex A.C.

M. Eng. Electronic ⚡ 〰️
Financial data & analysis. Value investing. Growth? at a reasonable price 🦔 🧔🏻

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

A MONTH later....

- Micron $MU : from $724.66 ---> $1,141.75 [+57.5%] 📈
- SK hynix : from €1,080 ---> €1,580 [+46%] 📈
- Sandisk $SNDK : from $1,407.61 ---> 2,200.67 [+56%] 📈

Sorry not sorry for the former Memory Bulls turned... clowns, and a real sorry for the Memory Panicans 😌

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

I'm seeing a new kind of Memory Panicans, but much worse: the former Memory Bulls that have sold their Memory names recently and now are saying:

"ey, the cycle! downturn is near!"🤦‍♀️

Preaching against the ones we're holding. You're pathetic and know nothing🤷

$MU SK hynix $SNDK

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

It has been fascinating to watch this term go from niche to normal, both within institution and sovereigns.

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@LynAldenContact Say your line Lyn....

[SemiVision 🇹🇼 👁️👁️ @semivision_tw]

This raises an obvious question: If CPO represents the future of optical connectivity, why would NVIDIA invest in reinventing pluggable optics?

The answer is not necessarily that NVIDIA has lost confidence in CPO. Rather, the AI infrastructure industry is entering a new phase in which the economics of optical interconnects can no longer be evaluated solely in terms of energy consumed per transmitted bit.

https://t.co/Ij6i979LnL

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

"Your leading merchant suppliers focusing new capacity toward UHP CPO lasers might also unintentionally make shortages around lower end ranges more severe"

As happens in Memory, more advanced HBM consumes more DRAM wafers, higher power Lasers consume more InP wafers

$LITE $AAOI

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$NVDA Jensen Huang on photonics: adding scale-up to optical domain, “is going to be, well, 15x” to aggregate volume.

Relating to $LITE, $COHR, and laser companies..

“I'm fairly certain the amount of optics that we need in the future will be several orders of magnitude” Huang added.

We’re already in a CW laser bottleneck, but given the time/rate for capacity expansion, I definitely don’t see it meeting the scale Jensen envisions…

Your leading merchant suppliers focusing new capacity toward UHP CPO lasers might also unintentionally make shortages around lower end ranges more severe…

Since even if you don’t reallocate capacity (which Coherent implied they’d do to maximize margins), the demand for lower end ranges increase too as pluggable demand grows.

Anyway, you’re gonna need a lot of lasers and given low BOM cost… this might trigger some fun game theory allocation wars + price hikes for supply

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@HiCagr IF they delivers.........

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@josejavierespa Es irrelevante porque la Sociedad no ha aprendido nada y de hecho se está radicalizando más que nunca

Hay HORDAS de radicales izmierdosos de 20 años

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@BenBajarin Will happen like in Oil. There will be some few integrated operators, and there will be upstream, midstream and downstream specialized companies

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@crpandemonium Da igual, ni un solo votonto izmierdista va a cambiar el voto.
Y la fake derecha son unos inútiles.

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@JasonrShuman 😂😂 very good one 🫡

@benitoz
@damnang2

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@DrNHJ The cheaper $NBIS the better for me. He can keep saying generalist bearish things that don't apply to Nebius, Iren, Oracle....

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@jukan05 pls guys, stop 😠

@superposition_V
@PhotonCap

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@TylerNorthwise Btw team:

https://t.co/fQWPbJRhZD

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

The most important thing about AI compute that you'll read in weeks:

"You can see a market consensus view is THE PRICE COULD GO UP IN THE FUTURE, NEXT 36 MONTHS [and this is calculated based on our term structure. And we use similar methodology as Treasury futures curve]"

$NBIS

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

The most important thing about AI compute that you'll read in weeks:

"You can see a market consensus view is THE PRICE COULD GO UP IN THE FUTURE, NEXT 36 MONTHS [and this is calculated based on our term structure. And we use similar methodology as Treasury futures curve]"

$NBIS

[Fireside Alpha @firesidealpha]

Silicon Data CEO Carmen Li says the GPU forward curve has flipped to contango, so the market expects compute prices to keep rising over the next 36 months

“So, the yellow line was last year, right? The horizontal line is the duration, and the dollar amount is the Y axis. So, last year was complete downward sloping curve for the yellow line, right? Meaning the longer term contract you signed, the cheaper, you know, was per GPU per hour."

"And this year, starting early this year, the whole curve shift up and became contango. If you see the red line, right?"

"So, translate to people not getting enough discount for longer term contract. Implies that people assume the price going to rise down the line."

"And now you see the price, the whole curve keeps shifting up, got flattened, right? So, meaning people are now either get penalized or get, you know, awarded by signing long term contract."

"This is reserved contract we observe. And if you look at implied forward rates, this is the implied forward rates, right? Because we don’t have a future trading. So, this is calculated based on our term structure. And we use similar methodology as Treasury futures curve."

"So, you can see a market consensus view is the price could go up in the future, next 36 months.”

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@damnang2 @dylan522p haha, let's go professor! 🙌

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@crpandemonium Pues más o menos, los mismos. Es de lo que la fake derecha no se entera 😂

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@Omercheema In Europe, tends to ZERO

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@RYANHINGSHING I'm quicker: VCSELs good in a GIGA MEGA constrained InP world. Simple as 😉😅

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@TylerNorthwise

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@jwt0625 😌
https://t.co/iUOr9UUbCa

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@jwt0625 $15 I vote

[Alex A.C. @AnalysisOp]

@damnang2 Everything AI-related is very cheap professor 😭