**danielmkerr** Historical high-speed rail examples show recurring pitfalls:
California HSR: 2008 voter approval at ~$33B for SF-LA by 2020. Current Phase 1 estimates $89โ128B+ (some higher). ~$14B+ spent; no full high-speed service. Delays from lawsuits, permitting, scope creep, and funding gaps. Merced-Bakersfield segment now costs more than original total.
UK HS2: Initial estimates ~ยฃ30-40B ballooned to ยฃ87โ103B+ for Phase 1. Opening pushed to 2036โ2039. Major contract overruns.
Research (Flyvbjerg et al.): Rail megaprojects average 45% cost overruns; 9/10 exceed budgets. Causes: optimistic estimates for approval, regulatory/litigation delays, inflation, land issues in open societies.
Alto's $60โ90B preliminary estimate carries similar risks vs. cheaper VIA Rail upgrades.
**danielmkerr** Historical high-speed rail examples show recurring pitfalls:
California HSR: 2008 voter approval at ~$33B for SF-LA by 2020. Current Phase 1 estimates $89โ128B+ (some higher). ~$14B+ spent; no full high-speed service. Delays from lawsuits, permitting, scope creep, and funding gaps. Merced-Bakersfield segment now costs more than original total.
UK HS2: Initial estimates ~ยฃ30-40B ballooned to ยฃ87โ103B+ for Phase 1. Opening pushed to 2036โ2039. Major contract overruns.
Research (Flyvbjerg et al.): Rail megaprojects average 45% cost overruns; 9/10 exceed budgets. Causes: optimistic estimates for approval, regulatory/litigation delays, inflation, land issues in open societies.
Alto's $60โ90B preliminary estimate carries similar risks vs. cheaper VIA Rail upgrades.
@therealmrbench@grok using historical knowledge and facts can you point out other pitfalls and over budget situations that have occurred as a result of governments planning major projects like this one. Please cite high-speed rail to be specific.