Daniel Vaz

Global Macro Trading

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

ntnb vs small11, ações domésticas.. e querem me dizer que o equity risk premium é positivo no Brasil...

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

smallcap brasil (domésticas) vs IMA b 5 anos.. alfa anual -5%, detalhe, IMA b (que é o que realmente protege de inflação) tem 25% da volatilidade das domésticas.... ou seja, se ajustar pelo risco, IMA b deu 10x mais retorno pela mesma vol.

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

sp500 vs ibx (ibov) em USD desde grande crise...
e mesmo assim, claramente não tendo ERP positivo e não tendo nenhum retorno para um risco absurdo, todo ano, declaram o fim do excepcionalismo americano e a compra de emergentes e Brasil...

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

@citrini @nicholastreece It was down close to 50% form the 42 highs on the day of the ipo in 6 months..

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

For the record.

Critics who argue that President Trump misjudged Iran or acted impulsively fail to grasp the strategic coherence underpinning recent U.S. operations. Many of these same commentators, until hours ago, could not have pointed to Kharg Island on a map, yet it is the core through which the Iranian regime’s economy breathes. Nearly 90% of Tehran’s crude exports run through Kharg, a terminal capable of handling roughly seven million barrels a day. Disrupting or seizing control of this node strikes at the regime’s primary revenue artery without requiring a ground war or full-scale confrontation.

The precision of the U.S. campaign underscores this logic. American strikes have degraded Iran’s military infrastructure while sparing oil export sites, signalling a strategy not of regime change but of coercive stabilization. The objective is clear: reopen the Strait of Hormuz, restore safe Gulf exports, and pressure Iran toward internal reform rather than external collapse. Securing transit routes and establishing U.S.-supervised flows from Iranian facilities like Kharg would not only stabilize global supply but also weaken China’s energy leverage across Eurasia.

In that sense, what critics call “reckless escalation” may instead be a calculated rebalancing of power using economic geography, not ideology, as the primary instrument of statecraft. The question is not whether Washington has a plan, but whether its detractors have the strategic literacy to recognize one.

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

@GlobalMktObserv @MacroCharts

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

Apollo and KKR looking very interesing now.. 13x earnings.. if we dont get a recession in the next 12m..

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 HOLY CRAP! 60 Minutes was FORCED to air this

“[President Trump] will go down in the annals of Iranian history as the most-celebrated foreign leader that changed the ballgame and changed the world as a result!”

That’s the truth! 🔥

[Barchart @Barchart]

Bears coming in hot today 😂

[The ₿itcoin Therapist @TheBTCTherapist]

“The U.S. dollar isn’t even backed by anything.”

The U.S. dollar:

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

soaf.. assim como todos outros.. double top bonito.

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

vale em 7 meses subia 100%..

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

EZA -11, ECH -8, EWW - 8, EWZ - 7.. it was all a very crowded momentum trade, coming to an end..

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

Foi todo analista do mercado brasileiro gritar que Brasil estava imune a guerra, que o EWZ cai 10% em 2 dias..

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

@DashaBurns @nahaltoosi Ops! That was wrong..

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

@lisaabramowicz1 Whats the valuation now? Does it make sense to buy at 30x? Why? Wont AI disrupt it for real that it might trade at half that valuation or less?

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

@robin_j_brooks GDP Comparison (Select Q1 Markers)
Data represents nominal GDP in current US Dollars at the start of each year (Q1). 

Year 
Brazil GDP (USD)
U.S. GDP (USD)
2008
$1.69 Trillion
$14.77 Trillion
2020
$1.47 Trillion
$21.35 Trillion
2026 (Est.)
$2.22Trillion
$30.62 Trillio

[Daniel Vaz @danielvazus]

@robin_j_brooks Should do this in usd to see the real gap..