Decibel Cooper

breakfast for every meal

[Decibel Cooper @dannykalb]

Fair and square? Nah, more like dishonest and rhombus

[The Fat Pitch @the_fat_pitch]

We must follow up on $ABAT after today’s DOE news. In previous article we already talked about it actually 👉https://t.co/uvuI7CbDt4.

With the DOE fully reinstating its grant for the 115M USD Tonopah Flats lithium refinery project, $ABAT gets non‑dilutive capital to build the first 5,000 t/yr module of a much larger plan. GOVT is helping pay for the first commercial phase. That lowers how much cash $ABAT needs to put in upfront, improves the odds the project is actually built, and reduces the odds of dilution.

Here we will analyze some numbers from the Preliminary Feasibility Study👇

Tonopah Flats PFS models a 30,000 t/yr lithium hydroxide operation over ~45 years, with cash operating costs ~4,300 USD/t and an after‑tax NPV(8%) of ~2.6B USD at mid‑cycle pricing.

At full scale that implies roughly 30,000 t × ~22–23k USD/t = ~660–690M USD of annual revenue, against ~7,000 USD/t total operating cost, so about 420–480M USD/yr of operating margin before capex, interest and tax if prices track the base case. Over the life of mine, the PFS base case points to mid‑teens of billions of cumulative after‑tax cash flow and that 2.6B NPV at an 8% discount rate.

The lithium‑price sensitivity table (tab taken directly from PFS, attach to post) makes it very clear:
-🟥 at 13k USD/t, NPV at 8% is basically 0 and IRR ~8% (you’re just clearing the cost of capital).
-🟨at the base case 23k USD/t, NPV at 8% is 2.6B with ~21.8% IRR and ~7.5‑year payback.
-🟩at 30.5–33k USD/t NPV jumps to roughly 4.4–5.0B USD, IRR >30%, payback close to 6 years.

The red line on the NPV sensitivity chart (see image) explains clearly how revenue (lithium price) dominates project value; capex and opex move the needle, but much less.

Now put that next to the equity: today $ABAT’s market cap is <0.5B USD. Even if you haircut the 2.6B NPV heavily for execution, timing, dilution and price risk, the current valuation is still only a fraction of just the modeled Tonopah project value, without taking into account the recycling business that is already ramping revenue and has turned cash gross‑margin positive last quarter. That doesn’t mean the stock “deserves” to trade at NPV tomorrow, but it points out some kind of asymmetry.

On paper, Tonopah can throw off mid‑teens of billions of after‑tax cash over its life; in practice, how much lands in $ABAT equity will depend on capex discipline, ramp, lithium prices, and how the capital structure is built (debt vs JV vs equity).

For us, today’s $ABAT news is a substantial de‑risking of their entire “mine + recycling” narrative. We won’t chase the +30% pop in this macro environment, but it absolutely stays on our must‑accumulate list on pullbacks. Plus do not forget that lithium supply will go from surplus into structural deficit sometime between 2026 and the end of this decade exactly when Tonopah is scheduled to move from paper into production.

We hold $ABAT.

[Amelia @amelia_tweetz]

Imagine if a woman president crashed the economy and started a war with no end in sight, and her biggest, seemingly ONLY concern was building a ballroom and redecorating the White House.

[Conner O'Malley @conner_omalley]

Irish Zionism

[Mike Beauvais @MikeBeauvais]

INTERVIEWER (reading resume): Uh, under "Skills" here you have "Knew who Mrs. Doubtfire was right away."

ME: It was Robin Williams. It was their dad.

INTERVIEWER (whispering to colleague): This is our guy.

[American Battery Technology Company @abt_company]

We have remained steadfast in our mission to deliver critical battery metals that support a robust North American supply chain, energy security, and independence. And we've made significant progress.

Redefining how these essential materials are sourced, processed, refined, and supplied in the U.S. through a truly unique business model built on two distinct business units: commercial battery recycling and lithium mining and refining. Both leverage in-house developed, innovative technologies to address the U.S. lithium supply challenge. Our recycling facilities recover valuable materials from retired batteries, while our Tonopah Flats project focuses on mining and refining lithium from one of the nation’s largest deposits.

Our ambitious model is supported by key collaborations with industry leaders like @Black_Veatch, driving the commercial scaling of their lithium refinery, and recycling partners like Renewance, Inc.

By tackling the supply chain challenge from both ends of the lifecycle, we are creating a balanced capacity to meet the growing demand for sustainable, domestically sourced battery metals. This dual strategy not only supports North American energy security but also fosters independence from foreign sources.

Read more in this in-depth article from @Waste360's Arlene Karidis : https://t.co/J1tTiokvpY

[Conner O'Malley @conner_omalley]

I’m 62 years old, I live in Tampa, I eat corn and beef everyday, I always have a titleist hat on, and Iran is the biggest threat to my freedom

[josh (oldfriend99) @oldfriend99]

(daft punk One More Time voice) Auld Lang Syne

[one dozen rats at a keyboard @PanasonicDX4500]

they’re bluffing when they say you can still get knocked off the nice list this late in the game. santa’s been delivering gifts in japan for hours by now; that list is locked, do whatever you want.

[The Elovaters @TheElovaters]

Whoa now, whoa now, now ❤️ “Gimme Love” live from @MGMMusicHall is up on YouTube. Back next month for two nights. Let’s do it again, Boston!

Watch now: https://t.co/EFZOnCRo7k

[The Elovaters @TheElovaters]

Get woozy vision where the mountains meet the sea... ✨ Another look at "Good Old Days"

https://t.co/Soec5P5U5A

🎥: Landry Long

[Chris Wade @saywhatagain]

Unc, chopped, fully washed, out of my lane, dry, parched, bothered, struggling

[The Elovaters @TheElovaters]

Snapshots from a few days locked in the studio. Vibes were high, music was flowing, and we left with some heat. Can’t wait for you all to hear it.

📸: Landry Long

[The Elovaters @TheElovaters]

The full trip just landed. ♦️ "Staring At The Sun" music video is live! We’ve been waiting to share this one. 🎥 Watch it now and tell us your favorite shot: https://t.co/KScFVgSSQV

A Sol House Production
Producer/Director: Landry Long

[Decibel Cooper @dannykalb]

@thick_trinity you ok?

[Cameron Bradford @camerobradford]

Me and a few other buddies who aren’t that intelligent individually are forming a hive mind

[Silverback Music @SilverbackMusic]

🔊🌊 OUT NOW!! @HIRIEmusic’s brand new album #Phases has officially dropped and is blasting into the YOUniverse 🚀✨

Hit play today + grab those limited edition vinyl bundles before they vanish! 🎶🔥

💿 Listen now: https://t.co/BqzZSnXycA

[Decibel Cooper @dannykalb]

@camerobradford this insight is precisely why you'd make a great general🫡

[josh (oldfriend99) @oldfriend99]

It would be funny if Ween reunited to drop their first new single in 17 years and it was one of the really annoying ones

[Silverback Music @SilverbackMusic]

🌺 Sunday vibin to @HirieMusic’s #IAmYourVibe music video, now playing on YouTube!! The new album #Phases drops 10.3 💿 Did you pre-order your vinyl bundle yet?

Pre-save: https://t.co/BqzZSnXycA
Full Video: https://t.co/sbgIqfTwgG

[The Elovaters @TheElovaters]

This one means a lot. 7 years since "Defy Gravity" ☁️ The album that truly began our journey as The Elovaters. Thank you for lifting us higher.

Listen here: https://t.co/woIiak07Ep