Danny Le

Born to chart TSLA and comb hair, and I'm out of hair.

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

$TSLA My thinking is:

It has a date with 327 after this bull run is over.

Therefore MMs will want to trap more bulls for the trip down to feel "real". 400 isn't gonna cut it. Maybe 450.

It can't be so strong, though, that it becomes an extended 5th wave. Reason? After an extended 5th wave, the drop will be aggressive, which leaves very little room for "catalysts" to play out like RT pilot or model Q. It will become an extended 5th wave if it reaches 490+. So not that high.

450-460. Just high enough to trap bulls and make it painful on the way down, but not high enough to crash it.

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

it could also be doing an expanded flat like this

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

it may just be following #2, but instead of a deep retracement, it did a shallow one.

The 4th wave -248 rule applies more rigorously to impulses. When it comes to zigzags like this, it can bypass it. but sooner or later, the chicken will come home to roost.

[Partner Elijah @Partner_Elijah]

@dannyle1022 Trying to reconcile current price action with these two scenarios, seeing which one is playing out, but I can't see it. Current move up seems based on call buying. Where do you think we top before heading to $248? You mentioned 320 IIRC? Tnx

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

@baggholding yes

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

if you followed this trade, thats now a $12 gain.

whether you keep holding here is up 2 you. im holding. theres a slight chance its going to start a small wave C up to low 300s here instead of going to 248, but I dont mind.

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

Sold January 2027 200 calls. NFA. $TSLA

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

@yeungones no. 248, then we see. 210 possible, but also possible we go up over 300 after 248.

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

normally, sideway is good. most often seen during a 4th wave.

see green. it was a 4th wave and it was bullish. I was adamant about 290 because there was a 1st wave. see yellow

now, the red oval looks similar to the green one, but it is not bullish, because theres no 1st wave to support it. its top heavy. will roll over. $TSLA

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

I dont believe in news. I believe in people behavior changes at certain prices. for example: when I said it would go to 180 from 270 in July, some people said it was a coincidence that the 8/8 delay news came out right at the top.

I propose a different way of looking at it: what if the news had been known to a group of people who decided to sit on it till they felt its time to sell?

[Sparkle @NagaVen17416800]

@dannyle1022 u will get ur 248 soon i guess with the news

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

@BenBakulaw no this is the right count

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

read this first
https://t.co/OpFEs0ZTmz

keys:

1. how to distinguish between a trend and a consolidation (gaps, "the right look", retracement depth)
2. how to tell when a trend is fizzling out (wave personality, what do 5ths look like?)
3. if its correcting, what are the candidates for pattern? (smaller structure, wave personality, retracement depth)

for example. this is an extended 5th wave impulse. i know its an extended 5th because:

1. the gap in the 3rd is much bigger than the one in the 5th
2. from the top is fallen out of the upward channel so its not a 4th that is underway

target of this is minimum bottom of the 4th at 248. much lower if this impulse is a C of a flat instead of half the 3rd of a diagonal up.

so I sell at 286, minimum I pocket $40.

[Isaac Tan @isaacthk]

@dannyle1022 How do we chart like you 🙏

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

one thing about my chart that is different from many others, although not unique, is that I looked at what it did over a good timeframe to predict what its gonna do next. I dont do simple things like if it breaks this then it goes up if not it goes down.

So when I say 248, I expect it to go to 248 regardless of what it does in between. You can say that, by calling for 248, I have predicted in advance that all upward movements in between are dead cats, which means I dont think in term of "if this bounce is too strong Ill be wrong" but instead "this bounce will not be strong at all"

Everything fits together like a puzzle. at the beginning I pick up a piece that might look like it could fit in 4 different places, hence the scenarios. but as time goes by they start getting eliminated 1 by 1

[Wong @baggholding]

@dannyle1022 Ok so before it hit 248 even it bouncing now doesnt mean anything to you now?

[KP @KP63281630]

@dannyle1022 @baggholding Should go down to 248 and see if it goes up afterwards. If it breaks down, see 210.

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

@baggholding thats skipping a few steps in between there.

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

Technically, the 2nd scenario is still alive. If it is an ending diagonal, the only change that occurred was it'd be an expanding diagonal.

Regardless, I still see 10% downside from here before it can go up again. $TSLA

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

$TSLA this bounce is not clean, despite today's god candle

1st scenario: a touch ofr 290-300 before pulling back to 220. probably on the back of a weak ER and / or more macro bad news. Then run up into the June / July timeframe

2nd scenario: slow grind in a rising wedge.

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

@misssanity at least 248

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

thats the "lil more"

wasnt sure if it would happen in RTH or ETH so I sold a bit early since its option.

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

the small 5th is extended. a lil more $TSLA

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

@rroonxx already did at 286

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

@gabri48614 in 6-8 weeks

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

It can go 300+, dont get me wrong. im now focusing on what will happen after it tops out, ie 210-175.

Im not calling the top here. its high enough for me to take the risk and thats all.

[Bokalija @Bojalija]

@dannyle1022 Usually you mention when you swap into short from calls or anything like that. However, you hitting the nail on target again. We’re at the mid 280’s.

You seeing potential in going higher further towards 300 ? 🤔

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

@Jamie_Mc_Keown yes. will close these calls at 210 and resell them later this year. thats my way of selling without
incurring tax, at least not right now.

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

Sold January 2027 200 calls. NFA. $TSLA

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

the small 5th is extended. a lil more $TSLA

[Danny Le @dannyle1022]

@gabri48614 @mickificki7 i thought 2 weeks, not 1