Dara

I write about politics, macroeconomics and markets

[Dara @darajournalism]

John Healey resigned as Defence Secretary because Starmer wouldn't commit to 3% GDP on defence by 2030.
He's now Chancellor and just delayed that same target to 2027.
The man who quit over the gap is now responsible for it

[Dara @darajournalism]

Quick fact check on the "London is a Labour lock" assumption:

Labour 33% Conservatives 20% Reform 17% Greens 15%

Cleverly just quit shadow cabinet to run for Mayor. If Khan goes too, Labour's likely replacement is far less established.

This isn't 2024 anymore.

[Dara @darajournalism]

10yr gilt yield: highest since 2008 (5.29%)
30yr gilt yield: highest since 1998 (5.92%)

Neither moved because of PMQs.

Both moved because of oil prices and a global bond selloff.

Burnham can win the Commons and still have zero control over what sets your mortgage rate.

[Dara @darajournalism]

Gilt yields hit their highest level since 2008 this week.

Here's why that matters for your mortgage:

Lenders price fixed rates off swap rates, not the base rate. Swap rates move with gilt yields.

Yields spike → brokers tell clients to lock in now. That's happening right now.

[Dara @darajournalism]

125 questions in the Commons on Tuesday.

Zero times Burnham said no to a spending request.

Every "let's discuss it" is a future ask on a fiscal headroom that just shrank by ~£11bn.

The bill lands October 28th either way.

[Dara @darajournalism]

The defence committee chair (a Labour MP) asked Burnham to commit to 3% defence spending by 2030.

Burnham: "I've made that commitment, made it very clear."

His staff corrected him within the hour. Real position: 3.5% by 2035.

To hit that, he needs to still be PM in 2035.

[Dara @darajournalism]

https://t.co/WBCUuwbpj4

[Dara @darajournalism]

Burnham's first PMQs happened 3 hours after gilt yields hit their highest level since 2008.
By the time he sat down, yields hadn't moved.
That's the story. Not what he said - whether it mattered at all.
New piece breaks it down 🧵

[Dara @darajournalism]

Burnham's team is briefing a "problem-solving, not point-scoring" approach ahead of Wednesday's PMQs.

Kemi Badenoch has had 6 weeks to prepare for exactly that line and this moment.

[Dara @darajournalism]

There are over 800 dead in Nepal's floods last week. 3,000 still missing.
It barely made UK news.
Cleverly's resignation from the shadow cabinet got more coverage than a death toll in the hundreds.

[Dara @darajournalism]

Reform is polling in double digits in London. So are the Greens.
Everyone keeps calling this a Labour city
But, voting intention has diverged massively in the past two years and, unlike the rest of the country, it doesn't seem to be reverting back to a two-party system.

[Dara @darajournalism]

Cleverly will need Lib Dem second preference votes to win London.
So his campaign message is "enterprise, entrepreneurialism, arts, culture."
Notice what's missing from that list if you've watched Tory campaigns since 2024.

[Dara @darajournalism]

10-year gilt yields remain elevated.
UK Autumn Budget is 8 weeks away.
Middle East war is back to exchanging strikes.
Burnham didn't cause any of this. But he still has to pay for his big plans with the same headroom this war is causing to shrink.

[Dara @darajournalism]

The US struck Iran yesterday. Iran struck a US airbase in Jordan hours later.
These are the first exchange of strikes in over a month - just as everyone was starting to believe the war was winding down.
10-year gilts sit above 5%. The Chancellor's fiscal headroom keeps narrowing.

[Dara @darajournalism]

Burnham has excluded PC Andrew Harper's killers from early release.
He didn't present a solution for the underlying problem prison overcrowding. Just changed the headline.
The capacity crisis that caused this is still there. Burnham will have to face questions on this at PMQs.

[Dara @darajournalism]

James Cleverly just quit the shadow cabinet to run for London Mayor.
His pitch: Sadiq Khan has "lost the passion for the job."
Khan has been in the role for 3 terms. Cleverly hasn't won an election outside Braintree.

[Dara @darajournalism]

Burnham hasn't taken a single Commons question since becoming PM.
That changes on Wednesday.
This week: First Cabinet since recess. First PMQs. And, a prisoner early-release statement No 10 officials say is impossible to get right.
The honeymoon's scrutiny test starts now.

[Dara @darajournalism]

Four Billion Pounds.

That's how much fiscal headroom the IFS thinks Healey could lose in October - not from any Budget decision, but from lower migration forecasts denting growth projections.

Self-inflicted by the visa clampdown, and barely discussed.

[Dara @darajournalism]

UK 10-year gilts remain above 5%, near the top of their range since the 2022 mini-budget.
Every policy Burnham has delayed to 2027 is a bet that bond markets stay patient until then.
The Truss era spike showed us what happens when they don't.

[Dara @darajournalism]

5 major decisions deferred past Burnham's first Budget: Defence spending
Welfare reform
Social care
Thames Water
"Growth in every postcode"
There have been no chances for Parliament to question any of his plans - until this week.

[Dara @darajournalism]

Burnham's team is briefing "problem solving, not point scoring" for his first PMQs on Wednesday.
Badenoch is already calling him a "people pleaser" who won't make hard decisions.
Wednesday will decide which framing sticks going into party conference