Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized — Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.
-From President Trump account
The jobs report was a barnburner. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 versus expectations for 88,000, while prior months were revised higher by 93,000. Wage growth came in at roughly 0.3%. Yet the market sold off. In our view, the market is misreading the signal. It is assuming that stronger than expected employment and growth will cause a an acceleration in inflation. History would suggest otherwise. Productivity growth is running near 3%, while unit labor costs are hovering around 0.5%. Those are not the hallmarks of an inflationary boom. They are the hallmarks of healthy, productivity-driven growth that will lower inflation. Meanwhile, the yield curve continues to flatten despite a roughly 55% increase in oil prices year-over-year based on a three month moving average. In past cycles, an energy shock of this magnitude steepened the yield curve when the Federal Reserve was accommodating it. Instead, the bond market appears to be discounting something much more powerful: the deflationary impact of technological innovation, particularly artificial intelligence, which is beginning to increase productivity across broad swaths of the economy. If tensions with Iran ease and oil prices retreat, we believe inflation could move into negative territory before year-end. In our view, the Fed made a historic policy error when it raised rates aggressively into what was largely a supply-driven inflation shock in 2022. We do not believe the next generation of monetary policymakers will be eager to repeat that mistake. Notably, gold peaked on the day Kevin Warsh was appointed. The inflation trade may already be behind us. If our research is correct, the next phase of this cycle could be characterized by accelerating growth, declining inflation, falling interest rates, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. That combination would create a remarkably supportive backdrop for innovation-led equities and the technologies driving the next productivity boom. I discuss this framework in greater detail in this month’s episode of In The Know.
Verified ✅
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi (araghchi) posted this exact statement on X ~1 hour ago:
"Iran's position is being misrepresented by U.S. media. We are deeply grateful to Pakistan for its efforts and have never refused to go to Islamabad. What we care about are the terms of a conclusive and lasting END to the illegal war that is imposed on us."
Confirmed by Xinhua, Middle East Eye, and others.
U.S. President Donald J. Trump tells reporters aboard Air Force One that Iran has given the United States a “tribute” of 20 oil tankers that are expected to begin crossing Monday morning through the Strait of Hormuz.