Darrell Foard

Silver member, COYG. Soul & Soulful House. expect drivel and you won’t be let down

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

1️⃣ WHAT DOES SUCCESS LOOK LIKE?

🎯 #PRD | WHAT DOES SUCCESS ACTUALLY LOOK LIKE AT MOU-6?

Yesterday I set out why I believe MOU-6 presents an unusually interesting risk/reward equation.

Today, let’s move from:

THESIS ➡️ PROOF

Because MOU-6 isn’t simply SUCCESS or FAILURE.

There are several increasingly valuable questions the well can answer. 👇

🪨 1️⃣ RESERVOIR
Does MOU-6 encounter the target where expected?

🔥 2️⃣ GAS
Are meaningful gas shows / charge demonstrated?

📊 3️⃣ PRESSURE & MOBILITY
What does MDT tell us about reservoir quality and deliverability?

💰 4️⃣ COMMERCIAL FLOW
Can the reservoir sustain a commercially useful rate?

🔗 5️⃣ CONNECTIVITY
Does the evidence support extension beyond the structural closure?

Here’s the important bit:

MOU-6 DOESN’T HAVE TO PROVE EVERYTHING TO ADD VALUE.

Every successful step potentially removes another layer of uncertainty.

And every layer removed potentially strengthens the Guercif investment case.

RESERVOIR → GAS → PRESSURE/MOBILITY → COMMERCIAL FLOW → CONNECTIVITY

🎯 MOU-6 JUST HAS TO KEEP REMOVING UNCERTAINTY. 🇲🇦

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

⚠️ Prospective resources are not reserves. Capital at risk.

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Share_Talk @proactive_x @OilVoice @AM231982 @Blowster85 @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @TopTradersADVFN @tozzer121

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

#PRD

Looks like MOU6 pad is ready. 🇲🇦

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Blowster85 @Share_Talk @proactive_x

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

3️⃣ WHY 60%, NOT 100%?

📊 #PRD | I’M BULLISH ON MOU-6.

SO WHY IS MY COMMERCIAL-FLOW ESTIMATE 60% — NOT 100%?

Because conviction should never be confused with certainty.

The evidence we’ve examined gives me considerable confidence in:

🪨 Encountering reservoir
🔥 Encountering meaningful gas evidence
📊 Obtaining useful pressure / mobility information

But none of those automatically guarantees commercial deliverability.

There are still questions only MOU-6 can answer:

🪨 RESERVOIR QUALITY — thickness, porosity and quality may vary.

📈 PRESSURE & MOBILITY — reservoir performance ultimately influences deliverability.

⚙️ FORMATION DAMAGE — drilling and completion effects matter.

🔥 SUSTAINABLE FLOW — gas needs to flow at a commercially useful rate.

🔗 CONNECTIVITY — wider system extension still has to be demonstrated.

That’s why my analyst estimate is:

🎯 60% — COMMERCIALLY SUSTAINABLE FLOW

Importantly, PRD has published an independently assessed 40–68% “chance of successful flow to surface” across five separate intervals interpreted as gas-bearing.

My 60% is NOT a PRD probability. It is my own analyst estimate of commercially sustainable flow.

60% ISN’T CERTAINTY.

IT’S MY ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK/REWARD.

The evidence gets us to the well.

🔥 The drillbit gets the final vote.

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

⚠️ Analyst estimates are my own, not PRD probabilities. Capital at risk.

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Share_Talk @proactive_x @Blowster85 @AM231982 @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

♟️ #PRD — THE ENDGAME

Let’s bring today’s MOU-6 thread full circle.

This morning we started with PRD’s 11 June statement:

Pre-drill partnering involving significant equity dilution was considered “commercially no longer attractive” following its reassessment of risk versus reward.

Now consider the other side of that decision.

PRD retains a 75% interest in Guercif. 🇲🇦

What happens to the strategic value of that interest IF MOU-6 establishes:

🔥 Commercial flow
🔗 Evidence supporting connectivity
🧪 Comparable methane-rich gas quality
💰 A credible route towards monetisation

Potentially, PRD’s strategic options broaden considerably:

🏗️ DEVELOP
Progress the Moroccan gas opportunity.

🤝 PARTNER / FARM-OUT
Bring in capital and/or industry participation after further de-risking.

💰 DIVEST
Monetise the asset at a different point in the value cycle.

⚠️ These are strategic possibilities — NOT a claim that a transaction or buyer currently exists.

But that’s the question I think MOU-6 could ultimately force the market to consider:

If PRD decided significant dilution BEFORE MOU-6 was no longer commercially attractive…

what could that retained 75% interest be worth AFTER a successful MOU-6? 👀

One well could potentially change more than the geological story.

IT COULD CHANGE THE STRATEGIC ENDGAME. ♟️🇲🇦

ONE DECISION.
ONE WELL.
MULTIPLE WAYS TO WIN.

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @proactive_x @Share_Talk @OilVoice @ZaksTradersCafe @ABMckinley @Blowster85 @TopTradersADVFN @tozzer121 @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @AM231982

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

🚀 #PRD — NOW FOR THE UPSIDE

This is where the MOU-6 risk/reward equation gets really interesting.

MOU-6 does NOT need to prove 498.4 Bcf to succeed.

Let me repeat that.

498.4 Bcf is NOT my base case for MOU-6 success.

The potentially transformational question is whether MOU-6 provides evidence supporting stratigraphic extension beyond the structural closure. 👀

Because if commercial flow is established AND the wider connectivity concept gains support…

the potential scale of the opportunity changes.

⭐ 498.4 Bcf STRATIGRAPHIC UPSIDE CONCEPT

And I deliberately risk that outcome much harder:

🔥 Meaningful gas evidence — 90%
💰 Commercially sustainable flow — 60%
🔗 Extension beyond structural closure supported — 42.5%
⭐ 498.4 Bcf concept materially de-risked — 40%

⚠️ Again: MY ANALYST ESTIMATES — NOT PRD PROBABILITIES.

That’s the asymmetry I see in MOU-6.

It doesn’t need the transformational outcome to be a successful well.

But if it establishes commercial flow AND provides evidence supporting stratigraphic connectivity…

the conversation potentially changes from:

“DOES GUERCIF WORK?”

to:

“HOW BIG COULD THIS SYSTEM BE?” 🔥🇲🇦

And THAT is where the risk/reward equation becomes very interesting.

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Blowster85 @TopTradersADVFN @tozzer121 @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @Share_Talk @proactive_x @OilVoice @AM231982 @ABMckinley

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

☀️ #PRD — NOW LOOK AT THE DATA

Why do I believe MOU-6 has a materially different risk profile to a conventional exploration well?

Because MOU-6 isn’t starting at zero. 👇

At MOU-3:

🔥 Significant gas influx while drilling
📈 122 psi estimated overpressure in the shallow gas sand
🟢 Repeated gas shows across multiple intervals
🧪 98.04–99.57% methane in 7 MOU-3 isotube samples
📍 MOU-6 planned only ~600m from MOU-3
🎯 Purpose-designed drilling programme

My probability framework therefore puts:

🟢 95% — target reservoir encountered
🟢 90% — meaningful gas evidence
🟢 78% — useful MDT pressure/mobility data
🟡 60% — commercially sustainable flow

These are MY ANALYST ESTIMATES — not PRD probabilities.

And that’s the key distinction.

❌ The question isn’t simply:

“IS THERE GAS?”

🎯 The big question MOU-6 is designed to answer is:

“CAN IT FLOW COMMERCIALLY?”

If the answer is YES, the story moves to another level. 🚀🇲🇦

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Blowster85 @TopTradersADVFN @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @Share_Talk @proactive_x @OilVoice @ABMckinley @AM231982 @tozzer121

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

⏰ | #PRD — RISK vs REWARD

There is one sentence from PRD’s 11 June RNS that I think deserves far more attention as MOU-6 spud approaches. 👇

“Finalising partnering relationships pre-drill that involve significant equity dilution in the MOU-6 project is commercially no longer attractive due to the Company’s new re-assessment of risk versus reward.”

Read that again. 👀

PRD had been considering pre-drill partnering involving significant MOU-6 equity dilution — but concluded that finalising such arrangements was “commercially no longer attractive.”

Why? 🤔

Because PRD says its assessment of RISK vs REWARD had changed. 🎯

PRD retains a 75% interest in Guercif.

And now the physical preparations for MOU-6 are taking shape. 🇲🇦🛢️

So this morning I’m asking one simple question:

WHAT CHANGED THE RISK/REWARD EQUATION?

Over the course of today, I’ll set out why I believe the public evidence matters:

🔬 The drilling evidence
🎯 The probability framework
🚀 The stratigraphic upside
♟️ The strategic optionality

RISK ➡️ MOU-6 ➡️REWARD

This could be a pivotal week.

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Blowster85 @TopTradersADVFN @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @Share_Talk @proactive_x @OilVoice @ABMckinley @AM231982 @tozzer121

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

[Darrell Foard @darrellfoard]

Any streams for tonight’s game?

[Darrell Foard @darrellfoard]

@SimonBrodkin @LighthousePoole Slagged off the Poole residents. Inappropriate language. Bullying a 15yr old re masturbation. Marvellous show. Hope you are DBS checked.

[Darrell Foard @darrellfoard]

@Morrisons As a regular shopper at Weymouth Morrisons I had a disappointing visit today. No assistance to unlock the champagne section and unhelpful person on the customer service desk. #morereasons to avoid Morrisons
PS would be great to get a response.

[Darrell Foard @darrellfoard]

@AFCSilverMember Hi Josh. I have secured 4 tickets with 4 silver memberships. All 4 are in a friends name. Is there a way of moving them to our own phones? Or can we use cards like we used to.

[Darrell Foard @darrellfoard]

@ColeLam2007 @Arsenal @LouisDunford @iedos_ recognise him?

[Darrell Foard @darrellfoard]

@CarlBovis_AFC well done for getting your robin picture on the South TV news. 😁

[Darrell Foard @darrellfoard]

We should play 531 more often 😳

[Darrell Foard @darrellfoard]

@kfc I wanted the give some feedback on a poor meal tonight. Usually you are very good but tonight the chicken was cold and the Pepsi was warm and flat.

[Arsenal @Arsenal]

A TRULY SPECIAL MOMENT 😍

@CharliePatino10 scores on his debut for The Arsenal!

👏 Huge congratulations, Charlie!

🔴 5-1 🟡 (91)

#CarabaoCup

[Carl Bovis ⚽ @CarlBovis_AFC]

2nd half prediction;

Arsenal have goal disallowed by Mike Dean
Mike Dean gives Everton a penalty.
Mike Dean books Xhaka
Godfrey 2 foots Xhaka. Not even booked by Mike Dean
Mike Dean sends Xhaka off for play-acting
Mike Dean awards himself Man of the match & does lap of honour..

[Darrell Foard @darrellfoard]

Anyone got a stream?

[Victoria @victoriamscott]

Fair play

[Darrell Foard @darrellfoard]

@LeGrove He hasn’t stopped dancing yet