The Bagholder

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

Software's been ripping for months and everyone's still talking about semis. The quiet rallies usually have the most room left.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

@pequityresearch A 3-4 year foundry lead time implied little near-term bull catalyst. But long bases could build the biggest moves before the breakout so 2028-29 could be for you to build generational for TSMC, Intel or Samsung.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

@StockMKTNewz The index isn't diversified anymore, unsure what that means from traditional investing perspective that you need diversification but in this case you’ll fail miserably in the last few years.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

@damnang2 This means Tesla's margin story is the bot now, not the car.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

@wallstengine You don't raise prices like that unless the capacity is spoken for — straight pricing power for the AWS margin line.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

The Grok team ships upgrades at 2am. As a shareholder I definitely have no complains.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Try the latest Grok @Bot. Many great upgrades!

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Try the latest Grok @Bot. Many great upgrades!

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

@SemiconductorsX Take-or-pay plus the biggest disclosed cash deposits means customers are locking up supply years out. So memory is basically like a commodity now.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

@JonkooTrades The premiums are too fat for the market makers to let it move off this pin.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

@jukan05 Oracles 'capex with no customers' bear case is getting harder to defend.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

@SergeyCYW PEG is a trap on semis because the E is mid-cycle in a down year and peak-cycle at the top.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

@Omercheema Memory will always be a bottleneck going forward.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

@ren_stocks Every bottleneck getting named is exactly how late-cycle semiconductor runs behave — which tells me the scarcity premium is already leaking out. From here it's execution and pricing discipline, not discovery, that moves these names.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

@enisco The model wars aren't slowing down, they're speeding up.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

52% of S&P stocks fell at least 5% in September and 21% lost 20% or more — Fair Isaac led the drop at -47%. We are obviously living in a world where some stock never drop and some never go up.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

Micron: "We anticipate Q1 to be the floor for gross margins in FY27."

And their adj gross profit margin is 87.0% this quarter... $MU

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

McDonald's wants to modernize restaurants with AI, and their stock price continue to drop.

Ironically the reality is the AI money goes to chips, not burgers no matter how good your burgers are. This is also going to be the case for countless other brick and mortar businesses.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

Palantir's commercial revenue is growing 149% and the stock is just sitting there. Maybe because market is pricing in their future growth to something way below that.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

The Trade Desk got ejected from the S&P 500 after just 14 months and this is the shortest tenure for underperformance in index history.

This market is brutal.

[The Bagholder @dasbagholder]

Roadster reveal pushed to Oct. 15 due to bad weather, and $TSLA is down almost 4%.

Imagine that a few days from now, we’re looking at an event that’s again ~2 weeks away, while the stock is 4% cheaper.

If this is not a buy the dip, then I don’t know what is.