dashess

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US federal debt has consistently overshot forecasts:

US federal debt held by the public is up to 100% of GDP, its highest level since peaking near ~106% during World War II.

Federal debt held by the public is the portion of US government debt owned by investors, businesses, and foreign governments, excluding intragovernmental holdings such as Social Security trust funds.

This metric already exceeds the CBO's January 2017 forecast for this same debt level by ~15 percentage points.

Similarly, the CBO's January 2009 forecast projected Debt-to-GDP would reach just ~42% by 2019.

The actual ratio instead surged to a record ~78% by 2019, overshooting that estimate by ~36 percentage points.

The CBO now projects Debt-to-GDP will rise to ~120% by 2035, though if forecasts continue overshooting by a similar ~15 percentage point margin, the actual ratio could surge closer to ~135%.

US debt trajectory may be far worse than current forecasts suggest.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Historic intervention is coming.

Despite several announcements by the US Treasury about imminent intervention, yields still won't fall.

This includings doubling buybacks to $4+ billion per operation and the Treasury considering using its $950 billion General Account for these purchases.

Reports now state that US Treasury Bessent "will do whatever it takes" to lower yields.

In addition to buybacks, this could include selling short-term debt, possible elimination of long-dated bonds, and more.

Meanwhile, on Friday night, President Trump even said that he could use the US Military to lower yields, though it is unclear exactly how he would do so.

The reality is that the Fed cannot cut rates in this environment and the Trump Administration knows this.

So, direct bond market intervention is the only solution to drive interest rates and yields lower over the short-run.

Our view? Don't fight the Treasury.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The AI revolution is powering the South Korean economy:

The South Korean economy grew +1.8% QoQ in Q1 2026, revised up from the preliminary estimate of +1.7%, according to the Bank of Korea.

This marks the largest quarterly expansion since Q3 2020.

This revision was led by facilities investment, which was revised up from +4.8% to +6.6% QoQ, while private consumption came in at +0.6% QoQ.

Exports were also revised up, from +5.1% to +5.9% QoQ, fueled by semiconductor shipments tied to global AI infrastructure investment.

YoY, South Korea's economy grew +3.8%, the largest increase since Q4 2021.

AI is transforming South Korea.

[Tony Severino, CMT @TonySeverinoCMT]

One of these things just aren't the same – one of these things just don't belong

BTC CME (left) vs BTCUSD spot Coinbase (right)

One has the SuperTrend flipped into a sell signal – one doesn't

Which chart is telling the truth?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

COMEX silver inventories are falling:

Silver inventories in COMEX warehouses have fallen -34 million ounces from their high, to 415 million ounces, the lowest since March 2025.

The stockpile has dropped -117 million ounces, or -22%, since September’s peak.

Falling silver inventories indicate strong physical demand as short sellers struggle to find actual metal to deliver against their futures contracts.

When these traders cannot find enough physical silver to buy, they have to pay higher prices demanded by sellers.

This pushes silver prices even higher, which then forces more traders to buy to avoid losses, tightening market conditions even further.

The silver short-squeeze is in full-swing.

[Tony Severino, CMT @TonySeverinoCMT]

Bitcoin is STILL not above this log resistance curve

[Tony Severino, CMT @TonySeverinoCMT]

Forget this chart has anything to do with Bitcoin

Would you buy this?

[Tony Severino, CMT @TonySeverinoCMT]

Nasdaq possible wave count where wave (1) = wave (5)

I tend to not agree with this theory, but that's the current measurements on the yearly (12M) line chart

Thoughts?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Eric Trump posts an update on his “Feels a great time to enter Bitcoin” post from February 2025:

[dashess @dashessTV]

@camelfinance Assume not everyone has a brain

[dashess @dashessTV]

@Apple can we get an iPhone mini please. 6.1 inch is not a small phone. 16e interesting concept, give that as a mini version? I dont want a refurbished 13 mini if i want a “new” smaller iPhone. Thank you in advance

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Did DeepSeek illegally buy Nvidia's chips?

Since DeepSeek was founded, Nvidia's sales to Singapore are up a WHOPPING +740%.

The US is now PROBING if DeepSeek bought Nvidia's GPUs through third parties in Singapore.

This will have MASSIVE implications.

(a thread)

[dashess @dashessTV]

@pathofexile please dont over nerf builds. I feels so bad investing in an character that just gets killed. Some stuff needs nerfs but flat out making it unplayable seems strange. Feels like something blizzard does, please dont be blizzard 😜

[dashess @dashessTV]

@camelfinance Dont give them inside info I agree!! But for the people not them keep em coming please do

[dashess @dashessTV]

@camelfinance With all the respect camel, keep doing what you are doing

[dashess @dashessTV]

@TradingParrot Haha nice! I was trying to understand the logic. Dont have xrp, but i could see buying back in at some point if it retraces

[dashess @dashessTV]

@camelfinance Nn camel, thanks for all the insights

[dashess @dashessTV]

@Apple where is the iphone mini? I dont want a tablet for a phone 😜

[dashess @dashessTV]

@camelfinance Camel, if you correct bitcoin for inflation we would be a lot below the all time high right? If you do a comparison between the prior cycles on a logarithmic scale with this correction, would we have been below or above where we were in the prior cycles?