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Lamar Jackson and Duece McBride FC

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3/17 NBA Recap
Josh Hart O 24.5 PRA✅
Kel’el Ware U 10.5 Rebounds✅

Premium Adds:
Kel’el Ware U 11.5 Rebounds✅
Moussa Diabate O 9.5 Rebounds✅
Coby White O 15.5 PA✅
OKC vs ORL U 224.5 Points✅
Timberwolves -3.5✅

2-0 on Twitter and 6-0 total in Premium💰💰

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NBA’s BEST BET🏀
#NewYorkForever vs #YesCers

Josh Hart O 24.5 PRA #Knicks
(-125 FD)

3/17 NBA Prop #1

Jalen Brunson hits the Q tag and I believe he sits tonight as this Pacers squad will possibly sit out their key guys as well.
The Knicks has recently struggled starting the game at the right tempo which has costed them to play at a deficit early.
A guy like Josh Hart is suppose to set the tone for the offense and push the pace.

Without Brunson, Josh is over this line 3/4 games averaging 29 PRA on 29.3 potential RA.
Some ridiculous numbers and his one miss was vs GSW where he had just 20 PRA on 27 potential RA.
Indiana plays at a fast tempo, so that takes GSW out of the equation which Josh Hart is now averaging 32 PRA against similar pace teams w/o Brunson (3/3 games).

The ball is moved around a lot more with Brunson off the court and we should see a game for anyone on the floor.
The only thing Indiana is successful in on defense is defending the three but they are a poor rim defense to slashers which is a guy for Hart to run through.
Only H2H was last month recording 37 PRA in an overtime battle recording 41 minutes.

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NBA FINALS’ BEST BET🏀
#AlwaysKnicks vs #PorVida

Josh Hart O 8.5 Rebounds
(-130 FD)

6/5 Prop #1

Word for word I’ve talked about how Josh Hart is the most important player on the Knicks and he showed up with 3 Pts 15 Rebs & 6 Asts.
Took PRA because I predicted that Wemby would guard him (FGAs📈) and I was wrong. Although it will likely happen tonight, I’m more intrigued on his rebounds alone.
In Game 1, I’ve talked about the non-Wemby defenders having great room to crash the glass and Hart defending Castle majority was the best option.
He finished G1 with 15 rebounds (13 def) on 17 chances despite missing the entire 2Q due to foul trouble.

Hart will once again be in a great spot to cover this line.
My 3 concerns:
Hart or KAT/Mitch foul trouble
Hart being left open not making the defend pay allowing more mins to Shamet and McBride

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Recap
Wemby O 1.5 3PM✅
Josh Hart O 1.5 3PM❌
Josh Hart O 24.5 PRA🪝

Thought Wemby was going to defend Hart majority which is why I added the points. He recorded 21 RA but just 3 pts as a guard defended him mostly.

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NBA FINALS’ BEST BET🏀
#PorVida vs #AlwaysKnicks

Victor Wembanyama O 1.5 3PM + NY Liberty ml
(-120 MGM)

6/3 Prop #3

KAT and Mitch will be defending Wemby nearly the entire time until it gets situational and OG switches up.
NY, just like OKC, will much rather have Wemby shoot jumpers instead of bullying the smaller defenders down low.

We are going to see a lot of 3pt opportunities for Wemby to knockdown as he shot 1/7 in the previous meeting with majority the two bigs defending him.

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@BenRitholtzNBA 100 mf percent

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Long series but I think the Knicks NEED Game 1

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Biggest Keys on both the Spurs and Knicks winning the 2026 NBA Finals🏀
#AlwaysKnicks #PorVida

How the Spurs win this series:
-Get KAT moving at a constant pace on defense drawing him to foul trouble
-Vassell and Champagnie HAVE to be effective from three (Champagnie especially since Mikal guards Vassell)
-GANG REBOUND! Limit NY’s offensive rebounding barrage

How the Knicks win this series:
-KAT does not get into foul trouble
-Mitchell Robinson nuclear offensive rebounding opportunities, make 1/2 free throws occasionally
-Brunson threes, Hart threes, Duece threes, OG threes
-Wingstop (OG+Mikal) creating turnovers
-Make Wemby guard KAT and Mitch majority for better results on offense

-WIN GAME 1‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️

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NBA FINALS’ BEST BET🏀
#PorVida vs #AlwaysKnicks

Victor Wembanyama O 1.5 3PM + NY Liberty ml
(-120 MGM)

6/3 Prop #3

KAT and Mitch will be defending Wemby nearly the entire time until it gets situational and OG switches up.
NY, just like OKC, will much rather have Wemby shoot jumpers instead of bullying the smaller defenders down low.

We are going to see a lot of 3pt opportunities for Wemby to knockdown as he shot 1/7 in the previous meeting with majority the two bigs defending him.

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NBA FINALS’ BEST BET🏀
#AlwaysKnicks vs #PorVida

Josh Hart O 24.5 PRA / 1.5 3PM
(-111 FD) / (-150 MGM

6/3 Prop #1 & #2

Expect Wemby to defend Hart to start the series off.
View Caruso’s dominate performances in the WCF and tailor it to Hart.
He’s going to have wide-open three opportunities and it’s a MUST that he makes them pay.
Hart is, if not, the most important player for NY. Him being able to shoot takes Wemby out of the paint (offensive rebounds) and potentially draw Wemby more on KAT which is great for the half court offense.
Last matchup against each other, NY used Hart as the hub to keep Wemby moving and get looks inside (7 asts on 9 pot 62 passes).

OKC did not capitalize much in fastbreak opportunities as they should. The Knicks were major in transition as that took care of the Spurs in the reg szn. Hart is ofc the guy if you want to play with tempo (s/o @cfbchamp with this analysis).

Anyone not defending Wemby is in a great spot to crash the glass. Hart defending Castle gives him room to crash since he’s the least consistent shooter on the floor (10 and 8 in the regular season).
The needle mover for the Knicks in this series is offensive and defensive rebounding.

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NBA FINALS’ BEST BET🏀
#PorVida vs #AlwaysKnicks

Victor Wembanyama O 1.5 3PM + NY Liberty ml
(-120 MGM)

6/3 Prop #3

KAT and Mitch will be defending Wemby nearly the entire time until it gets situational and OG switches up.
NY, just like OKC, will much rather have Wemby shoot jumpers instead of bullying the smaller defenders down low.

We are going to see a lot of 3pt opportunities for Wemby to knockdown as he shot 1/7 in the previous meeting with majority the two bigs defending him.

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NBA FINALS’ BEST BET🏀
#AlwaysKnicks vs #PorVida

Josh Hart O 24.5 PRA / 1.5 3PM
(-111 FD) / (-150 MGM

6/3 Prop #1 & #2

Expect Wemby to defend Hart to start the series off.
View Caruso’s dominate performances in the WCF and tailor it to Hart.
He’s going to have wide-open three opportunities and it’s a MUST that he makes them pay.
Hart is, if not, the most important player for NY. Him being able to shoot takes Wemby out of the paint (offensive rebounds) and potentially draw Wemby more on KAT which is great for the half court offense.
Last matchup against each other, NY used Hart as the hub to keep Wemby moving and get looks inside (7 asts on 9 pot 62 passes).

OKC did not capitalize much in fastbreak opportunities as they should. The Knicks were major in transition as that took care of the Spurs in the reg szn. Hart is ofc the guy if you want to play with tempo (s/o @cfbchamp with this analysis).

Anyone not defending Wemby is in a great spot to crash the glass. Hart defending Castle gives him room to crash since he’s the least consistent shooter on the floor (10 and 8 in the regular season).
The needle mover for the Knicks in this series is offensive and defensive rebounding.

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Well spoken

[DJ Zullo @DJAceNBA]

SGA is a better offensive player than Jalen Brunson. But I think Brunson is a better offensive player against a Wemby led defense. Where SGA is more stationary when he doesn't have the ball, Brunson is excellent off-ball and superb relocating into space when the play breaks down. Brunson is also a more willing pull-up 3pt shooter.

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Just locked in the first prop for the NBA finals.

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Knicks vs Spurs will be cinema.
Can’t wait to watch and gamble this series

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Recap
Shai U 7.5 asts❌
Alex Caruso U 11.5 points🪝

Bad end to the series. Some miraculous shots to cover SGA asts. Bad read on Caruso for me. Would have never thought he’ll see 10+ FGAs tonight.

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NBA PLAYOFFS’ BEST BET🏀
#ThunderUp vs #PorVida

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U 7.5 Assists
(+110 MGM)

5/230 Prop #1

We are absolutely running back Shai under on assists. He cashed with ease recording 4 asts 9 pot and 39 total passes. No 4Q run but would’ve prob landed the 11-14 PA range which would’ve still landed the under.
I’ve spoken heavily on how the Spurs were much more successful defensively when icing everyone else and letting Shai shoot the majority of his shots with Wemby patrolling the paint.

Here’s Shai’s passing stats from G1-G3:
12 Asts 24 pot 67 passes
9 Asts 13 pot 64 passes
12 Asts 24 pot 56 passes

G4-G6:
7 asts 16 pot 39 passes (spurs blowout)
9 asts 14 pot 46 passes
4 asts 9 pot 39 passes (spurs blowout)

It’s quite simple here and hopefully the scheme remains especially with OKC shooting much better at home. Let them have to self-create instead of being left open.

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So OKC struggled with this starting 5 in Game 4 and decided to run it again. McCain should’ve started lol

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NBA PLAYOFFS’ BEST BET🏀
#ThunderUp vs #PorVida

Alex Caruso U 11.5 Points
(-126 DK)

5/30 Prop #2

Referring a bit from Shai’s play. The Spurs sending less help to Shai limits Caruso in what he was succeeding when they did the opposite.
When Caruso does not have an open three, it is very rough for him to see production on the offensive end except for fastbreak opportunities which is scary.

Last game, Caruso finished the game with 7 points shooting 3/7 from the field. Granted no 4Q run due to blowout but he barely had good looks.
2/3 of his 3pt attempts were last second bombs (made one) and a contested layup that’s makable for him.

If Caruso isn’t getting open threes, it’s quite difficult for him to get points on the board.
He occasionally takes contested pull-up twos which I will all the way live with it.
Hopefully Castle doesn’t record 10 turnovers again leading to open lays.

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NBA PLAYOFFS’ BEST BET🏀
#ThunderUp vs #PorVida

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U 7.5 Assists
(+110 MGM)

5/230 Prop #1

We are absolutely running back Shai under on assists. He cashed with ease recording 4 asts 9 pot and 39 total passes. No 4Q run but would’ve prob landed the 11-14 PA range which would’ve still landed the under.
I’ve spoken heavily on how the Spurs were much more successful defensively when icing everyone else and letting Shai shoot the majority of his shots with Wemby patrolling the paint.

Here’s Shai’s passing stats from G1-G3:
12 Asts 24 pot 67 passes
9 Asts 13 pot 64 passes
12 Asts 24 pot 56 passes

G4-G6:
7 asts 16 pot 39 passes (spurs blowout)
9 asts 14 pot 46 passes
4 asts 9 pot 39 passes (spurs blowout)

It’s quite simple here and hopefully the scheme remains especially with OKC shooting much better at home. Let them have to self-create instead of being left open.

[DashProps @dashprops]

NBA PLAYOFFS’ BEST BET🏀
#ThunderUp vs #PorVida

Alex Caruso U 11.5 Points
(-126 DK)

5/30 Prop #2

Referring a bit from Shai’s play. The Spurs sending less help to Shai limits Caruso in what he was succeeding when they did the opposite.
When Caruso does not have an open three, it is very rough for him to see production on the offensive end except for fastbreak opportunities which is scary.

Last game, Caruso finished the game with 7 points shooting 3/7 from the field. Granted no 4Q run due to blowout but he barely had good looks.
2/3 of his 3pt attempts were last second bombs (made one) and a contested layup that’s makable for him.

If Caruso isn’t getting open threes, it’s quite difficult for him to get points on the board.
He occasionally takes contested pull-up twos which I will all the way live with it.
Hopefully Castle doesn’t record 10 turnovers again leading to open lays.

[DashProps @dashprops]

NBA PLAYOFFS’ BEST BET🏀
#ThunderUp vs #PorVida

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U 7.5 Assists
(+110 MGM)

5/230 Prop #1

We are absolutely running back Shai under on assists. He cashed with ease recording 4 asts 9 pot and 39 total passes. No 4Q run but would’ve prob landed the 11-14 PA range which would’ve still landed the under.
I’ve spoken heavily on how the Spurs were much more successful defensively when icing everyone else and letting Shai shoot the majority of his shots with Wemby patrolling the paint.

Here’s Shai’s passing stats from G1-G3:
12 Asts 24 pot 67 passes
9 Asts 13 pot 64 passes
12 Asts 24 pot 56 passes

G4-G6:
7 asts 16 pot 39 passes (spurs blowout)
9 asts 14 pot 46 passes
4 asts 9 pot 39 passes (spurs blowout)

It’s quite simple here and hopefully the scheme remains especially with OKC shooting much better at home. Let them have to self-create instead of being left open.