data dependent dave

TMT investor. Looking for the next missed bogey. not financial advice

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@nonlinearcycle Like zm ccaas trends + anthropic arr update soon

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

L / S

PLTR / DDOG
KVYO / BL
ZM / TWLO
SNOW / MDB
AKAM / DOCN
NBIS / CRWV

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@nonlinearcycle don’t think they accel off q1, but would buy it back cheaper

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@nonlinearcycle yup, at 80x fcf feel like in order to be a bull from here, need to assume further accel towards 40% grth in 2H

disagree?

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@LongOnlyLarry @P_Remarks pretty crowded long, high expectations. best print in software last quarter, ppl worried it can’t stay that clean forever

snow starting to get crowded too even tho also feel good about nums there

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@Semiaut0o0 @LongOnlyLarry @ContrarianCurse Feel like Cleveland checks in sw have been more noise than signal past couple yrs

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@CoorsLightCEO probably has the most upside to numbers out of all those as well

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@SouthernValue95 sound logic and agree on most points but wouldn’t extrapolate 10 million copilot net adds going fwd. sales always makes biggest push at end of fy

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

No matter what way you slice it: Azure accelerating (beat bogeys) against capex estimates that are in-line w/expects (if not below). Whisper was 250-275b range for fiscal27 - even adjusting for accounting chg, still at worst within that range (and probably 220b with the change)

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@Crussian17 overall capex commentary better than feared. A. no raise to cal 2026 B. fiscal 27 up y/y, but free cash positive means cash capex of ~200 bil and total <250

meanwhile other hypers raising

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@Crussian17 waiting for capex guide. think rips if closer to 250 bil for fiscal 27

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@P_Remarks unless capex balloons, should move higher, right? 250 bil for fy27 should be fine. closer to 300 probably a problem

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@TMTLongShort agree. feels like bogey for Azure growth is 42-43% in Dec qtr, if get visibility to mid-40s stock can re-rate very quickly

fairwater should help

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

I’ve liked aapl and googl but r/r feels better on msft here - hated. thinking buy any weakness tonight associated with a minor capex raise

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@buccocapital god forbid a company ever posts material weakness or misstated financials due to vibecoded ERP, gonna be a race to short all the stocks whose dev teams have bragged about vibecoding sw

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

we got bear markets when it touched 1T (2018) and 3T (2022)

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

AAPL hits 5T and then tops out there? Sounds about right. & fwiw i like AAPL. But been quite the run

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@S_curvecap lunch reccs. otherwise worthless

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@ContrarianCurse Guide for next two quarters implies ~60b in each. Even assuming they just hold that level in 2H27 that’s 240b for 27 vs 150b in 26. Unless they pull out cold turkey almost guaranteed to grow 50% y/y again

[data dependent dave @data_dependent]

@ContrarianCurse They are a big Google shop. Interesting