anshxl

Data Guy

[GodLike Esports @GodLike_in]

We are qualified to represent India at the Call of Duty: Mobile World Championship 2025 in Katowice, Poland (Nov 7–9), but 4 of our players still don’t have Poland visas due to no appointment availability at the consulate.

We’ve trained all year, won the India qualifiers, and proudly secured 2nd place at the 2023 World Championship in Atlanta. This is our dream and our nation’s pride. 🇮🇳

We are now at high risk of missing the entire tournament, and this is truly our last hope. 🙏

We urgently request help from @PLinIndia @PolandMFA @MEAIndia @DrSJaishankar @IndiainPoland @konsullndii @mansukhmandviya to provide an emergency appointment and fast track our visas so we can fly by Nov 4/5.

This is one of the biggest esports tournaments globally. Please help us make it to Poland and represent India on the world stage.

Kindly feel free to contact us at [email protected] for any queries or assistance.

[anshxl @data_guy69]

big money moves

[CODM Esports Hub @CODMeSportsHub]

Anshul (@data_guy69) has joined @GodLike_in as a Data Analyst.

[anshxl @data_guy69]

what other stats/breakdowns should i do before playoffs?

[anshxl @data_guy69]

control breakdown

1. stats are a little mixy: GodL leads ranking, XROCK leads in win rate

2. one definitive takeaway: SPG is the worst team so far

3. winning offense rounds will be crucial going forward; Wolves and Q9 lead, winning the most offense rounds on takeoff

[anshxl @data_guy69]

@ACSaintless the only other way would be for CODM/timi to provide an API that would allow access the game data. till then, manual sourcing is the only option

[anshxl @data_guy69]

(2/2) The prediction model uses the score after the first rotation (attack vs defense or blue vs yellow team) to calc each team's win probability

The model is calibrated uniquely for each map

would be cool to see a similar model during playoff broadcast

[anshxl @data_guy69]

(1/2) CDM HP breakdown

1. Wolves dominate - they win rotations, break most often, control most of the hill time, and have the highest win rate. no surprises here

2. somewhat functional win predictor: https://t.co/QJCgSA8Nec

more on how it works below ⬇️

[anshxl @data_guy69]

(2/2)
3. Garena is also scrappier, averaging more hill possession changes for the same maps.

Is this simply an effect of how close ELV and STE matchup? Or just a general difference in play styles?

[anshxl @data_guy69]

(1/2) Garena HP looked very different from what we have seen in CDM:

1. Both STE and ELV posted much lower numbers than the CDM average; they win less rotations and less breaks.

2. The difference is clearer when comparing with the top 3 CDM HP teams.

[anshxl @data_guy69]

(2/2)
4. Q9 is the only team to benefit from their timeouts

5. Wolves have somehow become slower than XROCK; FBs and rounds both take longer now

6. Firing Range and Standoff have a clear A site bias, Kurohana has a slight B site bias, other maps are even

[anshxl @data_guy69]

(1/2) stage 3 SnD breakdown; looking at the 6 most likely playoff teams imo

1. Q9 is far and away the best SnD team (+38 round diff!)

2. Sunuo continues to lead FB leaderboards, followed by Seven (-) and Abhiz (+7)

3. Zai has the most FBs in OT rounds; Q9 win most OT games

[anshxl @data_guy69]

Updated Power Rankings

Wolves are undeniably at the top, SPG stats heavily understate their performance

OUG sneak past Q9, despite losing 3-1 to them. OUG had better HP and Control performances overall

GodL would still remain #4 after weighing down Stage 3 stats

[anshxl @data_guy69]

Final Ranking: 40% HP, 40% SnD, and 20% Control

final ranking is then min-maxed on a 50-100 scale

[anshxl @data_guy69]

used the stats I collected to make power rankings for teams most likely to make it into playoffs

top 3 are no surprise; XROCK beating SPG is purely because of their Control record.

also need to figure out how to weigh down GodL's Stage 3 stats since they're in challengers

[anshxl @data_guy69]

HP ranking: RotationWins, BreakSuccess, ControlShare%, AvgScoreDiff and Win%

SnD ranking: PlantRate, RetakeRate, RoundDiff, FBRate and Win%

Control ranking: AvgLifeDiff, RoundDiff, AvgTicksCaptured, AvgTicksAllowed and Win%

each stat is weighed equally; ranking is normalized

[anshxl @data_guy69]

SPG comes back from being down 3-5 at the half against OUG on Coastal. this is the 6th 3-5 comeback this cdm, out of 7 total comebacks

and no, there is no map or side benefit - it's happened 3 times on attack and 3 times on defense, on 3 different maps

3-5 curse confirmed??

[anshxl @data_guy69]

godl vs. soul had some crazy comebacks

godl came back from being down 3-5 at the half on tunisia. out of 41 snd games in CDM10, only 6 times have teams come back from being down at the half (~14% odds)

5 of those 6 times, teams were down 3-5 at halftime -- coincidence?

[anshxl @data_guy69]

OUG 3-1 SPG
Q9 3-2 Wolves

[anshxl @data_guy69]

the top 4 teams this cdm play today. decided to compare their stats:

- q9 are by far the best snd team, +27 in rounds and 92% win rate. OUG vs. SPG should be close

- wolves and OUG should win HP easily

- OUG clears on Control; Q9 vs. Wolves should be close

[anshxl @data_guy69]

soul were down 70+ points on combine after the first set of hills. that gave them a 15% chance of coming back, according to this win predictor model i've been working on.

check out the interactive graphic here: https://t.co/EIWqN1Z2It

[anshxl @data_guy69]

godl vs. soul had some crazy comebacks

godl came back from being down 3-5 at the half on tunisia. out of 41 snd games in CDM10, only 6 times have teams come back from being down at the half (~14% odds)

5 of those 6 times, teams were down 3-5 at halftime -- coincidence?