Caleb Mandrake

322

[Yogi @Houseofyogi]

Chicago lost the Bears this week. A team that's been in the city since 1921.

They didn't lose them to a bigger market or a better deal. The Bears decided they'd rather be a tenant in Indiana than deal with Illinois for one more year.

Think about how badly you have to run a place for that to be the smart move.

They lost them for two reasons.

The people running Illinois would rather villainize a builder than keep one. And they're bad at their jobs.

In 2021 the Bears spent $197M on the old Arlington Park racetrack.

Before they could break ground, Cook County valued the empty lot at $192M (Bears said $60M). They were salivating at the chance to extort a building that didn't even exist yet.

That fight dragged on for years.

The Bears were ready to put $2B into the stadium. All they wanted was a promise the county wouldn't reassess them into oblivion, plus $855M for infrastructure everyone uses. Roads, transit, utilities. A $3B project, two thirds of it private money pouring into Illinois.

Springfield had since 2021 to get this done. They dragged it to the final night of session, passed it through the Senate at 3:39AM, and the House went home without voting.

So now it's all gone.

The funniest part? This started because Cook County tried to grab the tax early. They knew a built stadium would pay $53M a year. Now they get under $4M on a vacant lot. No jobs, no buildout, no new anything.

Congrats on fighting for scraps and losing the whole prize.

Pritzker: they're "an $8.5B valued business" that doesn't need propping up.

But be smart for a second. Almost every NFL city throws in public money for a stadium. Not charity. The return is real. Tourism, hotels, restaurants, jobs, game days, property tax on a huge development. The math works.

Indiana did the math. While Illinois sat on it for years, Indiana passed a bill in months, put up $1B, and took the team.

And the Bears took a worse deal to get there. In Illinois they were going to own their stadium. In Indiana they rent it from the state. A team that wanted to build its own home gave up ownership just to escape Chicago.

Nobody won but Indiana. The Bears lost their stadium. Illinois lost the team, the $2B, and $53M a year in taxes.

Pritzker after they left: "I wasn't willing to give up billions of dollars of taxpayer money to give it to a billionaire-owned family or team."

There it is. "Billionaire-owned."

That's how Democrats talk about any business right before they run it out of town. Call them a billionaire, act like you're saving working families, take a victory lap while the tax base drives across the state line.

Meanwhile they're running the whole state into the ground. And you already know how this ends. You're living in it.

Pensions are $143B in the hole, worst in the country and not close. You pay $6,285 a year in property taxes, double the $2,969 national average, for a city that's $1.15B in the red. The mayor called its finances "the point of no return."

When you run things this badly, you sell what's left.

They leased the parking meters for 75 years to Morgan Stanley and a sovereign wealth fund in Abu Dhabi. Took $1.15B and burned through it in two years. The investors already made it all back, with 58 years left to collect.

Sold the Skyway. Sold the downtown garages. Every asset that made money, gone for one check.

But a fixed property tax rate for a team that's been here 106 years? That's "propping up billionaires."

Companies are leaving. Boeing for Virginia. Caterpillar for Texas. Citadel for Miami. In 2023 alone Illinois lost 56,000 people and $6B in income to other states. The ones who left earned a third more than the ones who moved in.

Indiana didn't outbid anyone. AAA credit, 16 years straight. A $676M surplus. Fourth-lowest debt per person in the country. They just weren't a disaster.

Illinois could have collected $53M a year. It chose zero. Ignore all the bad management but make sure to stick it to those evil, pesky billionaires.

[Caleb Mandrake @datalord]

@favelaoverlord So true. Same with those cookie consent banners. Completely useless and unnecessary

[Echoes of War @EchoesofWarYT]

The richest man in America signed a document that could have gotten him hanged, and when someone sneered that he was safe because no one would know which Charles Carroll to come for, he picked up the pen and told the British exactly where to find him.

His name was Charles Carroll, and the colonies were crawling with men who shared it. His own father was Charles Carroll of Annapolis. So when the Declaration of Independence came to him for signing in 1776, a delegate made a cruel little joke. He said Carroll risked nothing by signing. There were so many Charles Carrolls that the King's men would never know which one to hang.

Carroll didn't argue. He leaned over the page and added three words to his signature: "of Carrollton." The name of his estate. His address. He was the only signer in the entire room who wrote down where he lived, and he did it on purpose, so that if the British wanted to come hang the traitor, they would know exactly which door to knock on.

That is who Charles Carroll of Carrollton was.

Here is what makes the moment even sharper. He was not a man with little to lose. He was the single wealthiest man in the thirteen colonies and the largest private landowner among them. While George Washington and John Hancock get talked about as rich men, it was Carroll who topped them all. When he signed, he was wagering the biggest personal fortune in America against a noose.

And he was the last man anyone would have expected to be there at all. Carroll was Catholic. In colonial Maryland, a colony founded as a Catholic refuge that had since turned on its own, Catholics could not vote. They could not hold public office. They could not worship in public. The most educated, wealthiest man in America was, in the eyes of the law, a second-class subject barred from the very government he was helping to create. He had spent seventeen years being educated by Jesuits in France and spoke five languages fluently, and back home he still could not legally cast a ballot.

So he became the only Catholic to sign the Declaration of Independence, putting his name on a revolution that he hoped would build a country with room for men like him. That was its own enormous bet, made by a man the existing system had already shut out.

Then he simply outlived everyone.

Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on the same astonishing day, July 4, 1826, exactly fifty years after the Declaration. When they were gone, Charles Carroll of Carrollton was the last living signer left on earth. For six more years he was the final human link to that room in Philadelphia, the last hand that had signed, a living relic of the founding that ordinary Americans traveled to see and shake.

He finally died in November 1832 at the age of ninety-five, fifty-six years after he wrote his address on a treason document and dared the empire to come find him.

The richest man in America. The only Catholic. The last one standing. He had more to lose than any of them, every legal reason to stay quiet, and he signed his full address anyway.

We remember the names we were handed in school. We forget the man who made sure his couldn't be mistaken for anyone else's.

Which Founding Father do you think history shortchanged the most?

[NOBUNAGA🇯🇵🏯_夏樹蒼依 @japan_nobunaga]

In America, a stranger will rename you in a single breath, and you are simply expected to come when called.

I went to eat at a busy restaurant. A young man at the front asked for my name, to mark my place in line. I gave it the weight it has carried for eight hundred years.

"Nobunaga."

He smiled, nodded, and wrote it down with great confidence. Then he read it back to me, to be sure he had honored it correctly.

"Perfect. Banana, party of one."

Banana. He had heard my name, held it a moment, and returned to me something rounder and more cheerful. To refuse the name a host gives is to refuse his welcome. I bowed. I was Banana now.

Then he handed me a small black disc, said it would "light up and buzz" when my table was ready, and turned to the next guest as though he had not just placed a living thing in my hands.

I held it in both palms, the way one holds a small sleeping beast that may wake. I found a place to stand. I waited, ready.

It woke.

It screamed. It flashed red. It leapt and shook in my hands like a captured spirit demanding release. A lesser man would have dropped it. I did not. I gripped it, steady, looked into its blinking lights, and told it, in a low voice, that its time had come. Then I carried it back to the host with both hands, the way one returns a hawk to its master.

He took it without looking and shouted across the entire room.

"BANANA! Party of one, your table's ready!"

A hundred strangers turned. I rose. I crossed that floor as Banana, spine straight, chin level, a man answering to his name. A child pointed at me. I gave the child a small bow. He had recognized me.

All through the meal they kept me. "How's it tasting, Banana?" "More water, Banana?" The check, when it came, said Banana, and thanked me for visiting. By the end the whole staff knew me. They waved as I left. "Night, Banana!"

So tell me honestly.

For eight hundred years my clan answered to one name. Tonight I answered to a fruit, calmed a screaming relic in my bare hands, and ate among people who were glad I came.

When the little disc lights up, is the table truly mine, or am I only keeping it warm for the next Banana?

Because I have already decided to return on Friday, and to ask, very humbly, for the same disc.

[Caleb Mandrake @datalord]

This is true on many levels

[Science Degen @ScienceDegen]

The strong version of that claim is too confident: scientists have not universally “confirmed” that unmedicated adult ADHD causes anxiety as a deliberate compensatory mechanism.

The more accurate extrapolation is:

Some adults with untreated or undertreated ADHD appear to learn to use anxiety, urgency, shame, deadlines, or fear of consequences as an external arousal system. That stress response can temporarily raise physiological activation enough to initiate action. It can work, but chronic reliance on threat-based activation may worsen anxiety, sleep, avoidance, burnout, and executive dysfunction.

ADHD is not simply “low dopamine”; it is often a problem of regulating arousal, salience, motivation, and executive control. A systematic review found autonomic nervous system differences in ADHD, often leaning toward hypo-arousal, though findings were mixed; stimulants and rewards can increase arousal in some studies. Separately, prefrontal cortex function follows an “inverted U”: too little dopamine/norepinephrine can impair focus, but too much stress chemistry also impairs it.

So the mechanism is less:

“Worry gives the ADHD brain the dopamine it lacks.”

And more:

“Threat makes the task salient enough that the nervous system mobilizes.”

Anxiety can create urgency. Urgency recruits norepinephrine, dopamine, cortisol, heart rate, vigilance, and threat attention. That may help someone start the thing they could not start when it was merely “important.” But it also teaches the brain: I move only when danger is high enough.

The cost is real, but “running on cortisol as fuel” is metaphor. Cortisol is not fuel; it is part of the stress-response system. Used occasionally, it helps mobilize. Used constantly, it can mean the person is living in a loop of procrastination, panic, overperformance, crash, guilt, and repeat.

A sharper version of the statement would be:

Adults with untreated ADHD may develop anxiety-driven productivity as a learned compensation. Because ordinary importance does not reliably generate enough activation, the brain may come to rely on urgency, fear, or impending consequence to start. This can be effective in the short term, but over years it can turn motivation into threat management and leave the body chronically stressed.

Sources: adult ADHD commonly co-occurs with anxiety and may be under-treated (BMC Psychiatry https://t.co/PnOp8ME7Pj); ADHD shows evidence of arousal/autonomic dysregulation, though not uniformly (📷Bellato et al.https://t.co/PnOp8ME7Pj); stress chemistry has an inverted-U relationship with prefrontal function (📷Arnsten review https://t.co/RNt9ujqW7s).

[Science Degen @ScienceDegen]

The strong version of that claim is too confident: scientists have not universally “confirmed” that unmedicated adult ADHD causes anxiety as a deliberate compensatory mechanism.

The more accurate extrapolation is:

Some adults with untreated or undertreated ADHD appear to learn to use anxiety, urgency, shame, deadlines, or fear of consequences as an external arousal system. That stress response can temporarily raise physiological activation enough to initiate action. It can work, but chronic reliance on threat-based activation may worsen anxiety, sleep, avoidance, burnout, and executive dysfunction.

ADHD is not simply “low dopamine”; it is often a problem of regulating arousal, salience, motivation, and executive control. A systematic review found autonomic nervous system differences in ADHD, often leaning toward hypo-arousal, though findings were mixed; stimulants and rewards can increase arousal in some studies. Separately, prefrontal cortex function follows an “inverted U”: too little dopamine/norepinephrine can impair focus, but too much stress chemistry also impairs it.

So the mechanism is less:

“Worry gives the ADHD brain the dopamine it lacks.”

And more:

“Threat makes the task salient enough that the nervous system mobilizes.”

Anxiety can create urgency. Urgency recruits norepinephrine, dopamine, cortisol, heart rate, vigilance, and threat attention. That may help someone start the thing they could not start when it was merely “important.” But it also teaches the brain: I move only when danger is high enough.

The cost is real, but “running on cortisol as fuel” is metaphor. Cortisol is not fuel; it is part of the stress-response system. Used occasionally, it helps mobilize. Used constantly, it can mean the person is living in a loop of procrastination, panic, overperformance, crash, guilt, and repeat.

A sharper version of the statement would be:

Adults with untreated ADHD may develop anxiety-driven productivity as a learned compensation. Because ordinary importance does not reliably generate enough activation, the brain may come to rely on urgency, fear, or impending consequence to start. This can be effective in the short term, but over years it can turn motivation into threat management and leave the body chronically stressed.

Sources: adult ADHD commonly co-occurs with anxiety and may be under-treated (BMC Psychiatry https://t.co/PnOp8ME7Pj); ADHD shows evidence of arousal/autonomic dysregulation, though not uniformly (📷Bellato et al.https://t.co/PnOp8ME7Pj); stress chemistry has an inverted-U relationship with prefrontal function (📷Arnsten review https://t.co/RNt9ujqW7s).

[Caleb Mandrake @datalord]

Amazing!!

[Caleb Mandrake @datalord]

Godspeed!

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Regarding the OpenAI case, the judge & jury never actually ruled on the merits of the case, just on a calendar technicality.

There is no question to anyone following the case in detail that Altman & Brockman did in fact enrich themselves by stealing a charity. The only question is WHEN they did it!

I will be filing an appeal with the Ninth Circuit, because creating a precedent to loot charities is incredibly destructive to charitable giving in America.

OpenAI was founded to benefit all of humanity.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Regarding the OpenAI case, the judge & jury never actually ruled on the merits of the case, just on a calendar technicality.

There is no question to anyone following the case in detail that Altman & Brockman did in fact enrich themselves by stealing a charity. The only question is WHEN they did it!

I will be filing an appeal with the Ninth Circuit, because creating a precedent to loot charities is incredibly destructive to charitable giving in America.

OpenAI was founded to benefit all of humanity.

[Caleb Mandrake @datalord]

Yep

[Caleb Mandrake @datalord]

@MikeFeller1 @HypnoticTree105 @gothburz Exactly.

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I am the Chairman and CEO of Vornado Realty Trust. Eighty-four years old. Seven buildings in Midtown Manhattan. I said what I said.

I said "tax the rich" is the equivalent of a racial slur. I said it at REBNY. Into the microphone. Eight hundred people. Median net worth in that room was north of $240 million, I know because our CFO ran the guest list through a Bloomberg terminal as a joke, and then it wasn't a joke. And when I said it, twelve people applauded. The rest nodded. One woman in the third row mouthed, "Finally." I saw her.

Sharon, my communications advisor, Columbia, $430,000 a year, very bright, Sharon wants me to walk it back. She drafted something. "Mr. Roth's comments were intended to highlight the emotional impact of political rhetoric on business communities." I read it. I put it in the trash can on my desk. Not the recycling. The trash. Here's my clarification: I understated it.

"Tax the rich" is worse than a slur. A slur is just a word. It doesn't come with a CBO score. Nobody is introducing a bill called the Racial Slur Implementation Act of 2026. But there are seventeen active proposals in Congress, I had Sharon count them, seventeen proposals designed to take more of my money. My money. Mine. Money I acquired by being better at acquiring Manhattan commercial real estate than anyone alive for four consecutive decades. That is not a crime. That is a record.

I pay property taxes on $18.2 billion in assessed assets. $412 million a year. Say it again: four hundred and twelve million. I carry that number. It's the first thing I think about when I see a protest sign. I think: I pay more in property tax than the entire annual budget of the city of Fort Lauderdale. I looked this up. Fort Lauderdale: $408 million. Steve Roth: $412 million. I am a small city. And the city doesn't get screamed at.

My effective tax rate last year was 11.4 percent. I say this because I believe in transparency and because I'm not ashamed of it. The rate reflects the legal structure of real estate investment trusts, depreciation schedules Congress established in 1986, and carried interest provisions that both parties have voted to preserve for forty years. I did not write these laws. I organized my entire financial existence around them with the help of nine full-time tax professionals who have offices on the 38th floor of 888 Seventh Avenue, which I also own. Their office is in my building. Their work protects my buildings. This is not a loophole. Sharon calls it a loophole. I've told her: a structure maintained by nine attorneys across four decades is not a loophole. A loophole is something you slip through once. This is architecture. This is the foundation. This is the building.

Last Tuesday, same as every Tuesday, I walked past 1290 Sixth Avenue. My building. And there was a man. Same man as last week. Same sign: "Billionaires Pay Your Fair Share." He was standing on my sidewalk. My literal sidewalk — my company owns the ground lease. He was maybe thirty. He was wearing a jacket I would estimate cost $60. My lunch that day was $114. For one. I am telling you this not to boast but because these are facts. He has decided I'm his enemy. Based on a number he saw on a Forbes list. He doesn't know what I pay. He doesn't know what my buildings cost this city in construction jobs and lease revenue and foot traffic. He knows one number. He has made one judgment.

I see him every Tuesday. I've started to notice things. He brings coffee from the cart, not the Starbucks. He has a backpack that looks heavy. He doesn't look unhealthy. He looks like he probably works somewhere, but not on Tuesdays. I've wondered: does he have a job? Does he have a building? Does he have anything that depends on him the way 4,200 employees depend on me? I suspect not. And yet he has opinions about my tax rate.

I gave $22 million to charity last year. The Met. NYU Langone. Mount Sinai. I gave a building to NYU. Not money for a building — a building. The Steven Roth Residence Hall. It houses 400 students. That man with the sign has never housed 400 students. He hasn't housed one. He gives cardboard. I give structures. This is not a comparison I'm making to flatter myself. It's just arithmetic.

When I said what I said at REBNY, I was saying what every person in that room believes and none of them will say publicly because they have communications advisors and the communications advisors all went to Columbia and they all say "unhelpful." I'm eighty-four. I'm too old for helpful. I'm too old to perform restraint for people who hate me for something I can't change.

I didn't choose to be rich. I chose to be good at one thing for a very long time, and this is what happened. You don't punish someone for that. You don't legislate against someone for that.

My net worth fluctuates between $3.8 and $4.1 billion depending on the quarter. I fluctuate more in a fiscal week than that man on my sidewalk will earn in his life. Both of these are facts. Only one of them is considered polite to say.

They want me to apologize.

I'll be dead in ten years. Twenty if I'm lucky. And they'll still be renting my buildings.

[Caleb Mandrake @datalord]

@drgurner @chrisman 🙏

[Robert Sterling @RobertMSterling]

“It started when a banker got sued for harassing an employee. She called his wife a fishhead Asian with no cannons. Then the guy’s picture came out and everyone realized he made the whole thing up. It sounds crazy, but the memes were incredible. It was the best day of my life.”

[Caleb Mandrake @datalord]

@leevalueroach A true hero!