SimpleJ

f u cn rd ths, u cn rd nthng

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

Very good summary about the interview.
https://t.co/nmJXSweKkB

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@GeorgeGammon It's true, not just for US. On the other hand, Putin is such a liar that it's hardly imaginable to have such a person in the lead of any democratic country.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert Bob's wrong as usually. Higher for longer or sea change? No! The focus is on treasury market. It's again signaling that FED will be forced to cut rates, FED admitted they won't raise anymore. There's good correlation between FED cutting rates and recession and stocks in euphoria.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert I hear your "No recession" as a great trolling. All, I mean *all* indicators are showing upcoming recession. Bull steepening, oil prices falling, unemployment increasing, ISM PMIs, FED pause. https://t.co/RjCEwQb35m

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@DiMartinoBooth @Macr0Alfi All news is good until FED lowers rates.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert Stock rally can continue for some time but unemployment data shows 0,5% uptick from previous lows so it's close to certain: US is heading to the recession if not there already. Bob's predictions are very inaccurate, let me share something more realistic:
https://t.co/owtyuJxDCf

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert Trading and investing IS NOT like driving with headlights bright on a country road and looking for next corner. That's just the problem of short-sighted analysis and inability to see long-term trends. Market periodically offers great opportunities and it's up to us to use them.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert Bob is still insisting on inflation story but it's so easy to look at current markets and check market consensus via TIPS yield. US5Y TIPS 2.46%, US10Y TIPS 2.31%, US30Y TIPS 2.43%. Market predicts inflation bellow 2.5% for 5,10,30 years. Really "Higher for longer"?

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert I am not sure whether Bob really understands what would mean if 10Y bonds would go to 6 handle as mentioned in the video. Because we were (not so) close to 5 handle and market was sinking hard. It's possible we'll go there but it would kiss of death for stocks. We aren't in 80's.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert Here's another prediction. We we'll see mixed/worsening unemployment data and market might take it as a bullish signal for some time. But later on, market will realize this is really serious and it'll drive SP&500 to retest 3500 lows and most likely we'll drop bellow.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert I'm having a lot of fun since I already wrote so many times to Bob that 1Y/10Y yield inversion indicates upcoming recession. Bob's indicator is probably mainstream media (those can switch their views in a week). But it's not really fun: rising bond yields might crash everything.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert Markets are very unstable there's a lot of fear and thus not only Bob's prediction are failing... watch the bond market. This is a key for further direction. If bonds stay around 5% or go higher the sell-off will continue. We won't go straight down but SPX at 4000 is very real.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert Here we are. I already wrote on Sep 19 that retest of Aug low is likely and once broken we'll get back to 41/42 handle. Unless bonds go higher stock market will continue bleeding. Let's wait for unemployment report on Fri - bad report could be bullish for stocks.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert The only component which drives prices higher is oil. Oil is in huge backwardation already and will eventually crash. It reflects constrained supply, demand is already weak. Raising rates won't help to drill more oil from ground thus FED should not raise rates but they could...

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert There's no big rebound coming. Why 10Y and 30Y are so beaten this is the important question because it will affect other markets. Most likely it's triggered by dollar shortage outside US and the dollar moving rapidly up in tandem with oil.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert The whole bear rally was driven by FOMO. Bob was mocking all bears for 6+ months but he was wrong all the time about macro. Now he's pivoting (again). It's becoming evident for more people that recession is inevitable. So it's time to be fearless and go buy bonds.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert S&P500 is forming either sideways or downward channel. It's still undecided yet. It's very unlikely that this index will challenge July highs and if so it could be in December which has the highest chance for creating top. High oil prices will contribute to faster deterioration.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert All the indicators Bob uses are significantly lagging. He was mocking bears all the year and now turning bearish or admitting possible recession? The recession is coming and if oil stays elevated it gets worse, significantly worse. Europe and China already in recession..

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert SPY could retest Aug lows soon. And if it gets broken path to 41/42 handle is open. I guess we might see the same trajectory as in bonds - NOT higher for longer.

[SimpleJ @date_is_today]

@PortfolioXpert Bob got all that macro stuff wrong. No higher for longer, just longer inversion. CPI and PPI already declining and market (TIPS) signaling disinflation and definitely not inflation. High rates didn't went through the economy yet and thus FED will be forced to cut sooner or later.