@EndicottInvests Times like these are when investors make the asymmetric returns. The bull case for the AI buildout has only continued to strengthen. Not to mention, extremely positive NBIS-specific news along this selloff - Reflection deal, new partnership model - yet shares are...down? Buy!
@EndicottInvests Mag 7 earnings EOM will be the first major catalyst in my opinion - shares will consolidate into it. Once those reaffirm what we already know about capex, our boys over at $NBIS will seal the deal with a stellar earnings report.
Looks like I'm going to be spending all day dispelling FUD.
$NBIS does not WANT hyperscaler money. Bare metal is not its core business.
It takes these bare metal contracts out of necessity to finance the buildout of its own AI cloud for enterprise and AI native startups.
First of all, $META announced its pivot to Meta Compute in January. This is old news that came out far before it signed its $12bn + $15bn escalator with $NBIS.
Secondly, management has gone on the record multiple times stating that this deal with $META is a piece of financial engineering. You would know this if you followed the company closely instead of talking out of your ass.
The $15bn escalator is an under the table handshake with Zuck. $NBIS takes this $15bn purchase COMMITMENT to syndicators and gets a loan to build a higher margin AI services cloud for its true customers.
So for one, the contract is already set in stone.
For another, if $NBIS had its way it would not lease out 50% of its capacity to hyperscalers. Bare metal is fundamentally a low margin business. Especially when there are 4 companies bidding for each GPU cluster that comes online that will pay a premium for optimized inference, model routing, and agentic tooling.
Why is Zuck willing to underwrite $NBIS? Because the world is so chronically short compute that hyperscalers are bending backwards just to get others to build for them.
Have you forgotten about Satya's 40% prepayment to $NBIS? These aren't contract terms that comes out of a position of negotiating power. It's capitulation.
What does $NBIS get out of this? It greatly reduces its cost of capital. By taking prepayments and borrowing against hyperscaler purchase commitments, it reduces reliance on equity raising, convertible, or its own corporate grade debt.
It also secures fast and vast amounts of capital TODAY necessary to lay the groundwork for massive campuses that will come online in the next few years.
This is how Nebius gets itself to hyperscale.
https://t.co/pPzkCbrbT4
In March, Meta signed a $27B cloud services deal with Nebius. In April, Meta signed a $21B expansion of their cloud services agreement with CoreWeave.
Two weeks ago, Bloomberg reported that Meta signed up to rent 1.6GW of data center capacity from Crusoe. And just 3 days ago, the Financial Times reported that Google had capped Meta's use of Gemini because of capacity constraints.
And now all of a sudden, Meta actually has excess capacity?
In reality, I suspect Meta looked at SpaceX's valuation and recent deals to sell excess capacity.. And came to the conclusion that investors will look favorably upon any willingness to monetize their capacity externally.. Which will give their share price some relief, and allow them to raise capital.. Which they'll use to buy and build more compute capacity, lol.
$META $GOOG $NBIS $CRWV