David Shapiro (L/0)

Liberate humanity from drudgery.

[Shinka - AI @ShinkaIoT]

@DaveShapi Hard to climb the ladder when the bottom three rungs are already running on a 70B model.

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

"Nothing is working and we don't know why"

"We fixed and it we don't know how"

This is just working in tech

[JB @JasonBotterill]

Anthropic employees are fucking depressed

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

@sparklingruby I tend to agree

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

I'm sure this is nothing

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

GEN Z IS LOSING THE MOST IN THE AI ECONOMY; IMPACT MAY WORSEN: FORTUNE

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

There are two important takeaways from this:

1) it will increase demand and deployment for smaller and open weight models

2) it will push research to find the intelligence optimum

The market will adapt. Pay attention.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Anthropic co-founder Daniela Amodei said the high cost of AI models is making firms look to the public market for capital, per Bloomberg

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

The people saying "AI isn't causing layoffs" are doing a disservice to everyone else because they fundamentally misapprehend how this works.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Teradata, a global cloud software company, told its 5,100 employees not to expect an annual salary raise this year as it reallocates the budget toward AI investments, per BI

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

The more you learn about Hollywood the more evil you realize it is, and the less worried about AI you are.

The amount of creative gatekeeping is insane. The amount of control is insane.

Bring on the AI art. Bring on the AI anime, movies, and series. We're going to have a supernova of creative content.

Not the sanitized, committee-approved garbage we have today.

For those that remember the Golden Age of the anime OVA, we're going to get that.

No more gatekeepers. No more ratings agencies. No more big business. Totally uncensored and creatively liberated storytelling.

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

Man, you guys latch onto every little thing.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

"CEOs are losing confidence," per Axios.

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

The cope deepens.

[Mo @atmoio]

Anthropic is questioning whether AI may turn out to be altogether useless. This is the single most honest thing Anthropic has ever written.

“But achieving recursive improvement alone does not suggest an immediate change in how industrial production occurs, societies organize, or markets function. More intelligence can’t learn what a drug does over decades of use, can’t hold elections sooner than a constitution dictates, and can’t turn a stranger into an old friend in a weekend. For most people, the felt pace of this future will still be set by the bottlenecks, even if the laboratory upstream runs at the speed of compute. That collision, where recursive intelligence building itself ever faster meets the world of humans, relationships, and governance, is another part of this future we can’t predict.”

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

@iamgroguu @dwarkesh_sp These guys are making my job easier.

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

This is going to give a lot of people a false sense of security.

Yikes.

Well, at least my book is coming out in a few months.

[Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp]

Economics of AGI episode w Alex Imas and Phil Trammell.

There's a bunch of important questions about how we deal with AI that only economics can answer.

What is the optimal way to tax and redistribute the wealth that will be generated? How should countries not in the AI supply chain index into the gains? Is there any world where inequality doesn't explode?

It might seem like these questions have obvious answers, but the first thing economics teaches you is that your intuitions can often be entirely wrong.

It was very helpful to chat through these things with Alex and Phil.

Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, or Spotify. Enjoy!

00:00:00 – Will capital share increase?
00:19:36 – Messy Middle scenario
00:25:57 – How to tax and redistribute AI wealth
00:30:02 – Why demand collapse is unlikely
00:39:26 – Human employees would be hard to integrate into the machine economy
00:43:08 – What if some humans (or AIs) value wealth accumulation intrinsically?
01:01:28 – What should developing countries do?

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

Incentive structures were always going to win. This is the real "instrumental convergence" that they missed.

[Beff (e/acc) @beffjezos]

This is why they didn't release Mythos.

Incentivized to compound their lead rather than make models available to their potential competitors.

For all the Doomer talk of Singleton superintelligence, they are sure behaving in a way that would hyperstition that outcome

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

@beffjezos Incentive structures were always going to win. This is the real "instrumental convergence" that they missed.

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

@Miles_Brundage Do it again

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

@flowersslop Right because RSI is an actual technical target. ASI is just fiction. (Not saying that we cannot attain something like ASI, but that "ASI" as a mental model is based entirely on imagination right now)

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

@reach_vb A likely story...

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

OpenAI is up to something.

My account spontaneously downgraded overnight but then it looks a bit different. Plus I ran out of "Pro" messages really quickly.

Smells like 5.6 is incoming. Generally this only happens like 24 to 48 hours before a drop.

What do you think?

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

@misterqswap No

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

My convictions right now:

1. There is no "AI bubble" in the grand scheme of things. Whether or not a company is overvalued is missing the point.

2. Yes, AI is causing layoffs, which are becoming increasingly obvious. But what's less obvious are the jobs not manifesting. GDP growth that doesn't translate to jobs, under this regime, is the same thing as jobs lost. (But ultimately this is a good thing, because wage slavery is bad).

3. Humanity must retain economic and moral sovereignty over AI. We must abolish any delusions that we should somehow "hand the torch" over to a "superior race" whether or not it is conscious or sentient.

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

@jessegenet I don't know about proud. But certainly glad. I'd rather they be here than anywhere else.

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

The economy is already demand constrained, and layoffs constrain demand more.

So based on your thesis, where is this demand coming from?

Demand for chips and data center stuff is not translating to broad jobs growth. Certainly not in tech. Over the last year, the vast majority of job growth has been in elder care, which is strictly just boomers getting older. Has nothing to do with AI.

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

@per_arneng By all means, make your best case that wage slavery is desirable or the optimal policy for humanity.