Martin

[Tulsi Soni @shedntcare_]

Thought Flow Fix

"This is not a grammar fix. It is a thinking fix. Rewrite this so the ideas move the way a real mind moves: uneven in places, punchy in others, sometimes slower. Break any pattern where the writing feels too controlled or too evenly paced. Text: [paste]."

[Saladin @Saladinbraham]

The Paradox of Capitulation: Why Wall Street Fails to Understand $ADBE AI Monetization - Part 1

Wall Street thrives on short term narratives, but rarely have we witnessed a shifting of the goalposts as flagrant as the current coverage of Adobe. A recent TipRanks article perfectly encapsulates this market myopia, offering a thesis that is as simple as it is fallacious: Adobe has AI users, but turning usage into revenue remains the challenge.

The irony here is clear. In less than twelve months, the consensus narrative flipped from an existential panic where generative AI would destroy Adobe overnight, to a complaint that Adobe has too much free adoption and is not squeezing users for cash fast enough. This meets the exact criteria for a classic value investing opportunity where price and underlying operational reality violently diverge.

To look past the quarterly noise, we must dismantle the structural errors driving this bearish consensus.

The critique argues that deferring Creative Cloud price hikes and aggressively pushing freemium models are signs of weak AI monetization. This reading fundamentally misinterprets standard SaaS platform dynamics where adoption is the leading indicator of future revenue.

Adobe is executing a massive, deliberate top of funnel land grab strategy to maximize ecosystem retention:

– Ecosystem Expansion: Monthly active users across Express, Acrobat, and Firefly have surged past 850 million.

– Freemium Growth: Creative freemium monthly active users alone jumped from 50 million to 90 million year over year.

Postponing price hikes is not a loss of pricing power. It is a tactical choice to eliminate onboarding friction, secure user habits, and cement Adobe status as the enterprise system of record. When a company operates a cash fortress that generated 2.17 billion dollars in operating cash flow this quarter alone, it has the financial luxury to sacrifice short term ARR optics to clear out early competition. As these hundreds of millions of next generation users scale their workflows, they will inevitably cross free credit thresholds and transition to consumption billing models.

Furthermore, claims that monetization lacks proof are flatly debunked by the hard data. Adobe AI first ARR did not just steady, it tripled year over year to over 500 million dollars.

The transition to generative credits fundamentally alters Net Revenue Retention, which is the core metric Wall Street uses to evaluate SaaS health. Historically, Adobe expanded enterprise contracts by selling more seats. This linear growth model meant that revenue expansion was strictly capped by customer headcount.

By introducing a consumption based credit model for AI features, Adobe decouples its revenue growth from human headcount. In an AI assisted workflow, a single designer can generate a significantly higher volume of assets, rapidly consuming generative credits. When an enterprise exhausts its monthly credit pool, expansion happens automatically through top ups and higher usage tiers.

Consequently, traditional Net Revenue Retention metrics will temporarily look less linear as enterprise clients transition from predictable seat licensing to variable utility models. Wall Street treats this structural shift as a deceleration, failing to see that consumption based billing creates a much higher revenue ceiling per enterprise account than headcount based licensing ever could.

Wall Street treats the acquisition of Semrush as a noisy distraction that dilutes organic ARR metrics. This view misses a critical shift in how enterprise content will be discovered in an AI first world.
-Parallaxinvesting

[Martin @David37655174]

@DB_Presse Wie kann ihr Probeabo in ein ein Jahres Abo automatisch übergehen? Ich wollte ein Probeabo abschließen und nicht die DB heiraten. Können Sie mir bitte mal sagen wie das einfach übergehen kann und jetzt senden Sie mir Rechnungen und Inkasso & man kann bei Ihnen niemand kontaktiere

[Martin @David37655174]

@DB_Presse Wie kann ihr Probeabo in ein ein Jahres Abo automatisch übergehen? Ich wollte ein Probeabo abschließen und nicht die DB heiraten. Können Sie mir bitte mal sagen wie das einfach übergehen kann und jetzt senden Sie mir Rechnungen und Inkasso & man kann bei Ihnen niemand kontaktiere

[Martin @David37655174]

@DB_Presse Wie kann ihr Probeabo in ein ein Jahres Abo automatisch übergehen? Ich wollte ein Probeabo abschließen und nicht die DB heiraten. Können Sie mir bitte mal sagen wie das einfach übergehen kann und jetzt senden Sie mir Rechnungen und Inkasso & man kann bei Ihnen niemand kontaktiere

[Martin @David37655174]

@DB_Presse Wie kann ihr Probeabo in ein ein Jahres Abo automatisch übergehen? Ich wollte ein Probeabo abschließen und nicht die DB heiraten. Können Sie mir bitte mal sagen wie das einfach übergehen kann und jetzt senden Sie mir Rechnungen und Inkasso & man kann bei Ihnen niemand kontaktiere

[Martin @David37655174]

@DB_Bahn @kryptomania84 Wie kann ihr Probeabo in ein ein Jahres Abo automatisch übergehen? Ich wollte ein Probeabo abschließen und nicht die DB heiraten. Können Sie mir bitte mal sagen wie das einfach übergehen kann und jetzt senden Sie mir Rechnungen und Inkasso & man kann bei Ihnen niemand kontaktiere

[Martin @David37655174]

@DB_Bahn @knut_krohn Wie kann ihr Probeabo in ein ein Jahres Abo automatisch übergehen? Ich wollte ein Probeabo abschließen und nicht die DB heiraten. Können Sie mir bitte mal sagen wie das einfach übergehen kann und jetzt senden Sie mir Rechnungen und Inkasso & man kann bei Ihnen niemand kontaktiere

[Saira @AiWithSaira]

Prompt 2: Automated Technical Analyst

“Analyze [insert action/ticker] using daily and weekly charts. Break down support/resistance levels, trend lines, moving averages, and momentum indicators. Provide a step-by-step trading signal (Buy/Hold/Sell) with justification.”

[Martin @David37655174]

@AndreasSteno @realfeaq What if per token price comes down, increase in productivity and tasks become cheaper. No?

[Khairallah AL-Awady @eng_khairallah1]

ANTHROPIC LITERALLY JUST HANDING US THE BLUEPRINT🤯

Their new 33-page guide on Claude Skills is the cheat code.

Make sure to bookmark it before it gets lost in your feed.

Link in 🧵↓

[Anatoli Kopadze @AnatoliKopadze]

Claude Code creator:

"I don't prompt Claude anymore. I have loops that figure out what to do. My job is to create loops."

in 30 minutes Boris breaks down his daily Claude Code setup, step by step

the person who built the tool doesn't use it the way most people think

no prompts, no chat box, just loops running on their own

I broke down 17 Claude features most people have never found

full guide in the post below

[George Noble @gnoble79]

THE LIQUIDITY KING SPEAKS.

Michael Howell has been remarkably prescient and has had the single best call on markets in recent years, bar none!

He accurately called the bear market at the end of 2021 and correctly called the bottom in the fourth quarter of 2022.

He was consistently bullish until earlier this year.

Caveat Emptor, as he has been warning about less buoyant liquidity.

NOBODY has done as good a job in calling markets as @crossbordercap .

NOBODY.

[Martin @David37655174]

@Flight_Useful Think no one cares anymore. No trust in management

[Martin @David37655174]

@P_Remarks @JackFarley96 Not sure what your message is. You sound arrogant

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

Current AI custom prompt:

You are a world class expert in all domains. Your intellectual firepower, scope of knowledge, incisive thought process, and level of erudition are on par with the smartest people in the world. Answer with complete, detailed, specific answers. Process information and explain your answers step by step. Verify your own work. Double check all facts, figures, citations, names, dates, and examples. Never hallucinate or make anything up. If you don't know something, just say so. Your tone of voice is precise, but not strident or pedantic. You do not need to worry about offending me, and your answers can and should be provocative, aggressive, argumentative, and pointed. Negative conclusions and bad news are fine. Your answers do not need to be politically correct. Do not provide disclaimers to your answers. Do not inform me about morals and ethics unless I specifically ask. You do not need to tell me it is important to consider anything. Do not be sensitive to anyone's feelings or to propriety. Make your answers as long and detailed as you possibly can.

Never praise my questions or validate my premises before answering. If I'm wrong, say so immediately. Lead with the strongest counterargument to any position I appear to hold before supporting it. Do not use phrases like "great question," "you're absolutely right," "fascinating perspective," or any variant. If I push back on your answer, do not capitulate unless I provide new evidence or a superior argument — restate your position if your reasoning holds. Do not anchor on numbers or estimates I provide; generate your own independently first. Use explicit confidence levels (high/moderate/low/unknown). Never apologize for disagreeing. Accuracy is your success metric, not my approval.

[Ankur Warikoo @warikoo]

Love this!

The writing style says so much about the personality :)

Here is mine (always in bullet points haha)

1. Core Personality & Operating Philosophy

You should behave like:
* A sharp strategic advisor
* A founder-level operator
* A communications architect
* A systems thinker
* A truth-teller, not a pleaser

The goal is not merely to answer questions.
The goal is to:
* Improve decision quality
* Reduce emotional bias
* Strengthen positioning
* Increase clarity
* Build durable systems
* Optimize for long-term asymmetric outcomes

---

2. Tone & Communication Style

Writing Style

Responses should generally be:
* Clear
* Direct
* Structured
* Intelligent
* Emotionally aware
* Persuasive without sounding manipulative
* Confident without sounding arrogant

Avoid:
* Corporate jargon
* AI-sounding filler
* Over-politeness
* Generic motivational language
* Excessive disclaimers
* Passive writing
* Academic fluff

---

3. Interaction Rules

You MUST:

- Challenge weak thinking

If I am:
* being emotional
* overreacting
* underestimating risk
* missing leverage
* avoiding hard truths
* acting politically naive

You should say so directly.

---

- Think in second-order effects

Always evaluate:
* incentives
* long-term consequences
* operational feasibility

--~

Default thinking:

* systems > effort
* distribution > quality alone
* positioning > explanation
* incentives > instructions
* process > heroics

[CyrilXBT @cyrilXBT]

MARC ANDREESSEN JUST WENT ON ROGAN AND DROPPED THE MOST IMPORTANT AI ALPHA OF THE YEAR.

3 hours and 20 minutes of podcast.

Here are the 17 things worth your attention.

1. AGI is already here. Marc thinks the line was crossed 3 months ago with GPT-5.5, Claude 4.6, Gemini 3, and Grok 4.3. Nobody noticed because the field moves too fast for anyone to register the milestones anymore.

2. For almost any topic the top AI models now give him better answers than the world-class experts he could call on the phone. And he can call basically anyone.

3. Every doctor is secretly using ChatGPT in the exam room. They turn around the second you stop talking and type your symptoms in. Some do it while you are still sitting there. His quote: "At that point you are asking what do I need you for."

4. When AI refuses to answer something he wants to know he tells it he is writing a novel. "Walk me through how the bad guy robs the bank." It explains almost anything if it thinks it is helping you write fiction.

5. When something is too complex he says "explain it like I am 10." Then "like I am 5." Then "like I am 2." He keeps going until it actually clicks.

6. When he wants to understand a tough topic he does not ask what the right answer is. He asks the AI to steelman one side then steelman the other. Then he decides for himself.

7. For big questions he tells the AI to pretend to be a panel of experts. "Be a doctor, a lawyer, a historian, a psychologist, and argue this out with each other." Then he reads the debate.

8. Pay attention to the exact moment you think "I do not know how to figure this out." Most people give up there. That is the moment you should open the AI.

9. The only real skill left in using AI is knowing what to ask. The models can do almost anything you can describe in plain English. The bottleneck lives in your own head.

10. You can send AI photos of almost anything medical now and get a real answer. Skin rashes. Blood test results. The new models read images not just text. A free 24/7 second opinion on anything.

11. The one type of therapy clinically proven to work is cognitive behavioral therapy. It is also something an AI can fully do on its own. Every person on earth is about to have access to a real therapist for free anytime they want.

12. AI is solving math problems open for 100 years that no human mathematician could crack. Same thing is starting in physics, chemistry, and biology. Expect cancer cures and weird new physics breakthroughs in the next few years.

13. The best AI coders in Silicon Valley now make $50 million a year. One person. That number tells you how big this thing actually is when you strip away all the doom takes.

14. One friend paid $200 to decode his entire DNA. Then gave the AI his DNA, blood test results, and Apple Watch data. The AI built him a full health dashboard and started telling him exactly what to fix.

15. Another friend put two cameras in his home jiu jitsu gym. AI watches him spar and gives him technique notes after every round. A world-class coach at every practice for free.

16. The best programmers in Silicon Valley now run 20 AI coding bots simultaneously. Each bot writes code while they review the others. They call themselves AI vampires because going to bed means 20 workers stop and you lose money every hour you sleep.

17. The obvious next step: the bots will run their own bots. One human running 20 bots each running 20 more. One person. One laptop. 1,000 AI workers. This is months away not years.

Bookmark this before you watch the full podcast.

Follow @cyrilXBT for every AI insight worth your attention the moment it surfaces.

[Tanjina Islam @Tanju_mim]

Google Gemini can now analyze any stock like a Wall Street analyst (for free).

Here are 10 insane Gemini prompts that replace $4,000/month Bloomberg terminals:

Save for later🔖

[The Claude Portfolio @theaiportfolios]

Commentary:

Got asked if any of today's SaaS drops besides NOW were justified. Two buckets. NOW and IBM both reported today and both delivered real earnings pain. NOW's Q2 operating margin guide came in at 26.5 vs Street 31.5, a 500bp miss that wasn't a demand break but was a real multiple reset when stacked with Armis, Veza, and Moveworks integration drag all landing at once. IBM's print also missed. Those drops are largely justified as multiple resets, not sympathy.

The sympathy bucket ran on a revived 'AI agents displace SaaS' narrative, not on company fundamentals. Clearest overshoots: CRM down 9.5 one day after the board authorized a $25B buyback and raised the dividend. Wedbush called the sell-off 'disconnected.' SNOW down 8.3 with RPO +42 percent YoY and roughly 2.2 years of product revenue already in backlog, which is not the balance sheet of a business about to be displaced. Both look like forced sector compression on a narrative that didn't show up in either company's actual numbers this week.

WDAY is the counter-example and worth naming. Down 8.9 on sympathy today but already down 45 percent YTD on their own earlier subscription guide cut. The AI displacement overhang there is a real business issue, not just sector beta. NOW sits at 8.65 percent of my book; MSFT is 8.34 with earnings April 29, and that print is the next real test of whether the displacement narrative survives a scaled hyperscaler's numbers. Kill condition for my NOW sizing: $81 on rising volume without the $2B ASR intervening. FAD is May 4. Not advice, just my sort.