Michael Burry says we are near a major top, possibly a 1987 style fall.
Remember he started shorting the 2008 crisis in 2005.
He spent 3 years underwater before he was proven right.
A chicken farmer once owned enough Equity Bank shares to make bankers nervous.
Then his family looked at the shares and said, βNiceβ¦ but have you considered a mall?β
Nelson Muguku started with chickens in Kikuyu.
No rich uncle.
No trust fund.
Just hens putting in more overtime than most employees.
By the time he died in 2010, he owned 6.08% of Equity Bank.
The biggest individual shareholder.
His estate was worth nearly Sh10 billion.
Then came the classic Kenyan investment strategy:
βLetβs sell the shares and buy land. Land never disappoints.β
The proceeds helped build Waterfront Karen Mall.
Big.
Fancy.
200,000 square feet.
13 acres.
The kind of place where parking gets more exercise than shoppers.
It opened in 2018 valued at Sh3 billion.
Today, the family is reportedly in talks to sell it for around Sh9 billion.
Three times the value.
Not badβ¦
β¦until Equity Bank decides to remind everyone why patience is a financial superpower.
Had they simply left those shares alone, that original stake would now be worth roughly Sh22 billion.
Thatβs a Sh13 billion lesson in the difference between βtaking profitsβ and βletting compounding cook.β
The mall hasnβt exactly had a smooth ride either.
Game moved in.
Game moved out.
Shoprite arrived with a ten-year leaseβ¦
β¦then treated Kenya like a free trial and cancelled after about a year.
Naivas walked in carrying the entire mall on its back.
Meanwhile, Nairobi kept building malls like someone had unlocked unlimited cement in SimCity.
Now everyoneβs chasing neighbourhood shopping centres while the mega malls are wondering where all the customers went.
As Morgan Housel says, investing isnβt just about math.
Itβs about sleeping well at night.
The Muguku family chose something they could see, touch, and point at.
The stock market chose violence.
In the end, Nelson Muguku turned chickens into billions.
His family turned billions into bricks.
And Equity shares spent the next twenty years saying, βYou sure about that?β
So hereβs the question:
If youβd built your fortune from scratch, would you trust a share certificateβ¦ or something with escalators and a food court?
Physical gifts always end up collecting their debt.
Pushing your body like an Olympic athlete while young will get you the best muscle memory, but itβs not healthy for the body.
No pain no gain is only for winning medals, you donβt need to suffer to be functionally mobile and healthy.
The ongoing convo on Special Fund is interesting to watch... my two cents.
1. NAMING: The name "Special Fund" is really misleading. The ordinary mwananchi would think there are ordinary and special investments, and who does not want to be special? Investments should be described by their portfolios strategy... debt, equity, money markets, multi assets, etc. There is nothing like a special portfolio save for the fact that our regulations mandate the name.
2. DISCLOSURES: The best antidote is to require all funds, ordinary or special, to fully disclose their portfolio contents each quarter so that investors can calculate for themselves where returns are coming from. It would put the debate to rest.
3. Those who understand portfolio attribution as a technique know there is a problem, but it has to reach systemic risks levels to confront.
The argument that financial stagnation stems purely from a scarcity mindset completely breaks down when facing severe structural constraints. Even the most disciplined, economically conscious individuals remain fundamentally broke if they are severely underpaid and trapped in a hand to mouth cycle where survival costs consume their entire baseline income.
An abundance mindset can only push an individual as far as their environment allows. With privileged people having an upper hand at life. Without critical economic infrastructure such as fair wages, active job creation, financial literacy and accessible professional pipelines, internal drive remains mostly a dream, frozen by a system that leaves absolutely no room for execution.
A lot of you need to decenter that Instagram lavish way of life, so you can start thinking like normal beings.
You are a Kenyan , living in Nairobi, no special talent or skill , fuel is ksh 200 , rent is skyrocketing everywhere, Teacher's are earning 17k a month. Ruto is the president and Duale is the cs health Trust me you are closer to being homeless or dead than driving that 2025 gle.
The shift is real. π Investors are fleeing traditional MMFs, chasing the aggressive yields promised by 'Special Funds.' -But beneath the surface, are we trading stability for unquantified risk? -The Q1 2026 data shows a massive pivotβand itβs time we talk about it. π· https://t.co/Ab5M9Og0bC