SAS

Aut viam inveniam aut faciam — I shall either find a way or make one.

[SAS @DavidBerchmen]

In search of Alpha in some key aspects of my life,

This year motto !
🍍

[Rufybaba @Rufyb]

What is happening here is a clean-up of an old ownership mess. All these posts I am seeing about capital raises are misleading. There is a backstory to it.

The backstory is the Otudeko-Otedola tussle. Oba Otudeko’s Barbican Capital and Tunde Hassan-Odukale’s Leadway camp held a combined 10.4bn shares (about 23% of First HoldCo). In July 2025, they exited in a single off-market block trade. ₦31.0 per share, which was roughly ₦323bn.

The problem then was that no one could sensibly absorb a quarter of a systemically important bank in one go. There are regulatory limits on single ownership, plus dropping that much stock on the open market would have hammered the price.

So Renaissance Capital did what investment banks do. They created an SPV called RC Investment Management. The SPV served as a bridge or warehouse. That warehouse held the shares on a temporary basis while approvals were sorted, with the understanding that the block would eventually be distributed to the wider market.

With CBN and SEC approvals obtained, RC Investment is selling the 10.4bn shares down on the NGX at ₦110 per share, which is about ₦1.15 trillion (though headlines are rounding it to ₦1.4trn.. Iono why).

The stock has been trading around ₦130, so the block is going out at roughly a 15% discount; therefore, a lot of investors would naturally be interested.

The thing to note here is that this is a secondary sale. The proceeds go to the selling entity, not into First HoldCo’s balance sheet. The bank is not issuing any shares and gets no new capital. Some coverages are muddling this and mixing it up with the separate recapitalisation story.

What matters strategically for First HoldCo is that it removes a massive ownership overhang that has been hanging over the stock for over a year. It also broadens the free float, improves liquidity, and settles the control question.

Who is the selling entity?

The seller of record is RC Investment Management Limited - the SPV itself. It is the registered holder of the 10.4bn shares, so it is the entity crossing the block on the NGX and receiving the proceeds. Not First HoldCo, and not Otudeko or Hassan-Odukale, who already cashed out at ₦31.0 back in July 2025.

Who sits behind RC Investment is the part “no one” really knows. It was incorporated in Nigeria in 2023 and the person with significant control is listed as Samuel Babatunde Sule, CEO of Renaissance Capital Africa. But most likely, that is an investment bank fronting for its clients.

If RC bought at ₦31 and is now selling at ₦110, the gain is ₦820bn, which naturally should flow to the “promoters or financiers” of the SPV. However, no one knows the economic terms behind the entire arrangement. But whoever held on to the risk through that period expects to benefit from the return.

Small deviation: why did Leadway sell?

Leadway’s slice was 2.3bn shares of about ₦71bn. Their piece was smaller, and three things possibly motivated their decision to sell.

✑ They needed to raise capital for their insurance business (re: NIIRA 2025). They were also buying PAL Pensions (to merge with their existing pension business) to become a top-three PFA. Hence, they needed the balance sheet room. Since Otedola had taken control, a passive minority stake in a bank they did not control was a poor use of capital when you have a regulatory capital requirement to meet and a sector-consolidating acquisition on the table.

✑ The second is that the strategic case for holding First HoldCo. had collapsed. Hassan-Odukale had been a long-standing insider at First Bank until Otedola came. Once you are no longer the controlling shareholder or influential on the board, you are just holding a large illiquid position with governance risk attached and no seat at the table.

✑ The third is that there was a very good opportunity to exit. The warehouse structure gave both sellers a single, clean, off-market exit. The opportunity does not come around often for a position of that size, so they took it together.

Why did Otudeko sell?

Otudeko’s exit was a different and very complicated one entirely. Leadway’s decision was a “portfolio-driven” and “capital allocation” one, while Otudeko was pushed.

The core of it is that he had already lost the institution. He chaired First Bank from 2009 and First HoldCo from 2012 until the CBN dissolved both boards in April 2021 over corporate governance breaches. Then you had EFCC, Ecobank, and all coming for him.

It was a tough battle for Otudeko, while under criminal charge (EFCC), under CBN sanction, and with creditors (Ecobank) circling his collateral. He sold because he possibly ran out of options.

[SAS @DavidBerchmen]

@the_goodfemi My bro, can you share the PDF?

[Engr Dr F. O. Ehiagwina, mnse, miaeng, mnieee @FEhiagwina]

Earning report
NASCON

[Cowrywise @cowrywise]

The Nigerian stock market is up 58%. So why didn't your investment grow by 58% too?

What really makes share prices rise? And how do you spot the companies that benefit you?

If you've asked any of these questions, here's your answer👇

[SAS @DavidBerchmen]

Presco is still a good buy especially at that 1800 levels.
But, what was ever the point of having Aradel, Lafarge, Mtn, Gtco and Presco in one portfolio.
Some portfolio needs stocks with high beta to deliver outstanding return but not so much of it should sentiment shift!

[SAS @DavidBerchmen]

The month of April whined me investment wise ehn.

I had around 12 companies and wanted to prune it to 6/7, so i sold off my holdings in Uacn, Cap, Fidson, Ikeja hotel, Gtco, Nem, Unilever and kept the money in my presco as i saw it as an ideal store of value while i make

[SAS @DavidBerchmen]

Anyway, in retrospect and looking ahead, it will likely be the best decision i made in my portfolio this year as i am seeing the signs already.....

[Sir Dickson @Wizarab10]

Now that the World Cup is over, let's focus on humanity. Mr Kingsley has been battling kidney failure for 2 years now. We have raised N1.1m for him

Let's contribute what we can. Raise am 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

2405990902
Zenith
Wisdom Obi-Dickson

[Sir Dickson @Wizarab10]

There no such thing as understanding girlfriend. You’re simply a girlfriend.

[Josh Banks Studio @JoshBanks55]

Church cultural day flyer designs

#flyer #photoshop #editing #church #culture

[Sir Dickson @Wizarab10]

They had to go through

Uruguay
Portugal
Belgium
France
Argentina

Spain are the worthy Champions 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

[tyro @DoubleEph]

Something I’m realising is if you are going to have VAR, you might as well show the video decision on screen. I don’t like the way it’s been done at this World Cup at all. Contentious calls are settled with “trust me bro” and that’s it

[Funmilayo Odunayo Adeyemi @_AdeyemiFunmi]

It is perfect to use football to explain what is going on here; just think of global stock markets like football leagues for a moment😊

Different organizations (S&P Dow Jones, FTSE Russell, MSCI, etc.) rank countries into different divisions based on how easy, transparent, and reliable it is for investors to invest, and the divisions look like this:

🏆 Developed Markets - Premier League 🥈 Emerging Markets - Championship 🥉 Frontier Markets - League One ⚽ Standalone Markets - Outside the professional league
Nigeria is currently in the Standalone category under S&P Dow Jones and that's some good news as Nigeria has been placed on S&P's 2027 watchlist.
Think of it like a football scout saying: you have had a great season and now on our radar but, we'll keep watching before deciding whether to promote you.
It is not a promotion neither is it a rejection but an acknowledgement that Nigeria has made meaningful progress.

S&P specifically highlighted improvements in: - Market transparency - Regulatory enforcement - Market integrity

However, it also wants to see that these improvements remain consistent and resilient before considering moving Nigeria to Frontier Market during its 2027 review.

While FTSE Russell is reviewing the impact of Nigeria's move to T+1 settlement on market accessibility, S&P Dow Jones is evaluating the broader progress of Nigeria's regulatory environment and market development.

Different referees and of course, different rulebooks but both are saying something important:
Nigeria is improving and the next step depends on proving those improvements are sustainable and not just temporary.

[SAS @DavidBerchmen]

This should be an interesting one.
With God by my side as always 🙏
Let's see how the next half of the year goes.

[SAS @DavidBerchmen]

The market downturn over the full month of June gave me the biggest shot into taking a conviction bet on my portfolio.

I have just 6 stocks namely:
Wapco, MTN, TIP, Wema Bank, Vitafoam and Custodian.

[SAS @DavidBerchmen]

Multiplied my equity portfolio value for the whole of last year in the first 2 months of this year,
I can't say how grateful i am and it's just march, might fuck around and do a 3x or 4x of my equity portfolio value for the whole of last year in one calendar year.

I am grateful!

[SAS @DavidBerchmen]

If and when I pull it off, that will mean I did a 500% return on my portfolio value between 2025 and 2026.