David Brickell

18 yrs on institutional trading desks. Now focused on crypto through a macro lens. If you're not in crypto, you're not macro. @FRNT_Financial@LDNCryptoClub

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

Crypto Through a Macro Lens 👁️

After 18 years on macro trading desks, I look at Crypto through a macro lens

What are some of the macro indicators I look at every day as part of that framework and why?

A thread 👇

1/n

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

Happy Sunday 😎

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

Pro tip for those in the UK

Don’t rush out to buy an air con unit today

Let the next week go, then you’ll have 50 weeks of the year where no one needs them to buy one cheap 👍

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

Don’t be a panican

BTFD 👇

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

At the studio recording this weeks @DeribitOfficial Crypto Options Unplugged podcast

Nice surprise to have had some @smarterwebuk merch delivered 🚀

Thanks to @the_desert_ape and the SWC team 🤝

[LondonCryptoClub @LDNCryptoClub]

Somewhat strange market at the moment with various correlations breaking down

We are on quarter and half year end window so maybe it’s just noise as hedges adjust and portfolios rebalance

Breakevens are crashing lower with both the fall in oil and the more “hawkish” FOMC

Overlaying 10yr breakevens (in blue) with 10yr US yields (yellow), 10yr US yields should be some 50bps lower

The idea that it’s “debt sustainability fears” keeping yields elevated doesn’t chime with a stronger dollar or the sell off in gold

Makes me think it’s just the quarter end impact

Think into July, we see 10yr yields fall quite sharply

That in theory will be a tailwind for Bitcoin but only if it’s the disinflationary effect of oil working, rather than an unnecessarily hawkish Fed

Either way, think 10yr yields have peaked

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

Been a while since I wrote the macro newsletter for @LDNCryptoClub

Partly, macro has taken a back seat to the geopolitics and the unrelenting AI trade

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

Kids all over the UK today learning about the dangers of authoritarian regimes

….and also how to use a VPN 😂

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

Elon Musk becoming a trillionaire and some of the negative reaction to it has exposed the lack of financial literacy so many people on here have, including those in influential positions that on paper should be semi intelligent

It’s genuinely frightening 😂

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

Shared some thoughts on the is market

TLDR; Bitcoin likely bottoms over next 2 weeks 👇

[Jamie Knowles @the_desert_ape_]

Really enjoyed appearing on the @DeribitOfficial show with @options_insight and @davidbrickell80.

We discussed markets, Bitcoin Treasury Companies, and why they continue to be net accumulators, with @smarterwebuk being one of them.

LSE: #SWC | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8

[Deribit @DeribitOfficial]

Buying spot Bitcoin or an ETF is fine. But Bitcoin treasury companies are playing a completely different game increasing BTC per share over time using capital markets.

Jamie Knowles joins Imran & David this week to explain Bitcoin treasury companies, the financial engineering behind them, and why it all matters 👇
https://t.co/CcerfqnnNY

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

This 👇

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

No one articulates the case for Bitcoin and sound, permissionless money better than @satmojoe

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

"Now I bid you lose me and find yourselves; and only when ye have all denied me will I come back unto you."

[Heraclitus of Ephesus @DarkHeraclitean]

The one wise thing is to know, in sound judgement, how everything is guided in every case.†

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

The most silent words are harbingers of the storm; thoughts that come on dove's feet lead the world.

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

This history can be related even now; for necessity itself is at work here.

[David Brickell @davidbrickel80]

What I relate is the history of the next two centuries. I describe what is coming, what can no longer come differently: the advent of nihilism.

[Norland Téllez, PhD @mythistorian]

“With or without religion, good people can behave well and bad people can do evil; but for good people to do evil—that takes religion.” —Steven Weinberg (A Designer Universe)