Indonesia’s attempts to target everything – inflation, growth, currency stability – are not working. Something has to give, and in this case it’s IDR, which sits at the bottom of the 2026 EMFX league table. Reports on strengthening BI’s pro-growth mandate raised more red flags
The 2-4 hours you spend scrolling each day (or 730-1460 hours each year) is more than enough time to write a book, build a business, or get in shape. In the moment, it seems like nothing. That's why it's so dangerous. Your time disappears without you being conscious of it.
eth thesis has been weakening consistently for years, solana this cycle dominated retail activity, hyperliquid dominated perps activity, rollups still have yet to gain significant traction & vitalik publicly abandoned gen usage rollup thesis
eth's main value prop has been safety + security of defi & insto interest, current aave situation is mark on that value prop that has possibility to continue weakening confidence
eth in 2026 is in worse spot than it was in 2023, amplified by ai doing extremely well & tech stocks being much more favorable investments with real revenues / emerging narratives / increasing momentum, eth is $300B asset with ton of overhang from tom lee topblasting + complacent eth holders sitting idle in defi protocols
ta-wise its in sustained downtrend after failing to break through multi year res levels & at current range highs of multi month bearish consolidation range, if downtrend continues should target lows of 2025 around $1300 & then lows of bear market around 2022
tight invalidation 2377 assuming problems worsen
if you want to play it loose assuming other risk assets continues doing well & drags it up probably somewhere around 2700/2800
invalidation fundamentals wise would want to see breakout activity from some new vertical
$BTC
Every time BTC tries to break out Trump and friends throw a bunch more bombs on Iran and escalate things further
Good news?
We haven't broken down
Bad news?
Retards in charge can be retarded longer than we can remain solvent
BREAKING: Bitcoin collapses below $68,000 after President Trump threatens to "obliterate" Iran's power plants.
Just 24 hours ago, President Trump said he was considering "winding down" the Iran War.
Hey everyone, this is my base case for Indonesian equities going forward. Personally, I view this as a market to avoid entirely, with zero exposure. For those who are already invested, I would seriously consider planning an exit ahead of the developments I believe are increasingly likely. As always, do your own work (DYOR).
Based on recent disclosures and signals from Indonesia's capital market authorities, I struggle to see a path where MSCI continues to tolerate the current market structure indefinitely. The probability that Indonesia is eventually downgraded from Emerging Market (EM) to Frontier Market (FM) status appears materially underappreciated. If and when that happens, the mechanical consequences would be substantial, with an estimated US$30-35bn of forced equity outflows. As markets are forward looking, and rational participants will not wait for the formal announcement before repricing this risk. The adjustment process typically begins well in advance.
At the same time, valuations remain elevated relative to the underlying quality of liquidity. The index looks inflated, and in my view, highly vulnerable to a sharp correction. The critical question is simple: who becomes the marginal buyer in a market where liquidity is increasingly artificial and both foreign and domestic institutional capital are incentivized to sell? Retail participation may provide some flow, but in size, it is negligible relative to the potential supply that could hit the market.
This is the classic setup for a severe liquidity crunch. Once confidence in price discovery breaks, selling feeds on itself, bids disappear, and prices gap lower rather than adjust smoothly. In that scenario, exits become disorderly, correlations go to one, and the outcome is rarely contained or elegant. If this plays out, I believe the endgame will be very ugly with has very serious repercussions at many levels beyond equities.
On micro level, let's look at Indonesia's biggest market cap company: Barito Renewables ($BREN) - US$66.4bn market cap, US$11mn daily turnover. On paper, this clears IDX and MSCI headline thresholds. But despite the size, observed daily trading value over the past six months has been extremely thin relative to market cap (just at 0.017% per day). If we measure liquidity against effective float instead of headline market cap: 0.22% per day, still very thin for the company size. This resembles micro-cap liquidity rather than mega-cap behavior. Compared this figure to other large EM mega-caps (Tencent, Samsung, major Chinese, Singaporean or Indonesian banks).
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BILLIONAIRE SCAM EMPIRE FOUNDER CHEN ZHI TRANSFERRED TO CHINA
Chen Zhi, the ‘pig butchering’ scammer who ran ‘Prince Group’, has been transported to China. Prince Group was a $40 Billion scam empire that has been under Chinese criminal investigation since 2020.
Previously, we identified $14B of Prince Group Bitcoin connected to a mining company, Lubian - this BTC has been seized by the US Government.