David Russell

Once a Marine, always a Marine.
Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation Group. Ideas expressed are my own.

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

#AI crumbling?

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

Gold miners bounced hard Nov 3-9
But DXY is climbing with jobs strong and #inflation high.
Are miners overbought heading toward an expected #FederalReserve rate hike on Dec. 9?

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

Looks like Musk was right

https://t.co/tYAKTMrGqR

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

NFIB: 37% of small businesses plan to increase prices, up 6 points from September and the highest level since July 2022.
#Inflation
https://t.co/kv4VKSR8h8

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

TNX: 10-year Treasury yield back to 5%

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

US Home Prices fell 0.4% over the past year, the first YoY decline since 2023.

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

#inflation #FederalReserve
Both Lorie Logan and Christopher Waller now using the "F" word.. fifty basis points

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

#inflation

[Diane Swonk @DianeSwonk]

🔥CPI was hot with way too many things rising in price, especially for those who must focus on necessities.

The three-month annualized pace soared to 4.4% its hottest since June. We lost CPI last year in October due to 6-week government shutdown. Our interpolation of the data shows CPI rising 4.1% from a year ago, well above the avg hourly earnings. That is why wage earners feel the blow to their purchasing power.

Food, electricity, and fuel oil all up. Baby formula largest surge on record, a blow to costs of having children. Beef and snacks up. Cattle stocks slim & shipping costs up up up.

The core CPI, jumped 0.3% for 3rd month in row, 0.1% above pace needed to achieve price stability, let alone cool inflation.

The supper core services, which understates the PCE index, surged at a 5.5% three-month annualized pace, up from 4.6% in September.

The components that feed into the @federalreserve preferred gauge, the PCE index, will be HOTTER🔥

Gov. Chris Waller, who spoke in London & likely had this report on hand, warned of a half percent hike in December. Hawks have had it & fear the Fed is losing it inflation fighting credibility.

We are enduring the worst bout of inflation relative to wage gains since the 1970s. The Fed is mulling moving with conviction instead of caution, a major shift.

Inflation is a regressive tax & it was still getting much worse in October.

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

#AI

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

SOFTBANK SIGNALS AI INVESTMENT SLOWDOWN AFTER $7 BILLION LOSS

SoftBank is considering pulling back from aggressive AI spending after swinging to a $7 billion quarterly loss.

CFO Yoshimitsu Goto acknowledged a shift toward caution:

“It is only natural that there is some discussion now about waiting and seeing how things play out for a little while.”

The comments signal a potential pause in SoftBank's AI investment spree, including its exposure to OpenAI, as the AI trade comes under pressure.

One of AI's biggest backers is signaling that even aggressive investors may need to slow down.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

US HOUSEHOLD DEBT HITS $19.1 TRILLION AS DELINQUENCIES RISE

American household debt surged $334 billion in Q3 to $19.1 trillion, according to the New York Fed.

Mortgage balances jumped $257 billion to $13.4 trillion, while credit card debt rose $22 billion to $1.3 trillion.

The overall delinquency rate increased, with 5% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency by September's end. Meanwhile, 10.9% of student loans remained at least 90 days past due.

Household borrowing keeps climbing as repayment pressures intensify.

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

Happy USMC BIRTHDAY to one and all

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

Wow nice to wake up and smell the price pressures!

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

GOLDMAN SACHS WARNS FED RATE HIKES COULD EXTEND INTO 2027

Goldman Sachs Asset Management says hotter-than-expected US inflation could force the Fed into a more aggressive tightening cycle.

Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing, says a December rate hike remains the firm's base case, despite growing AI-related market concerns.

Persistent inflation could push additional rate hikes into 2027, keeping borrowing costs elevated for longer.

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

Looking at some chip stocks, you have to wonder if the entire #AI trade isn't going into distribution. #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

#oil ... who to believe?

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Oof.

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

This means more and cheaper diesel. https://t.co/gkwTskAYFb

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

https://t.co/i8tHsMpSgY

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

https://t.co/dGGUqeD92Y

[Patrick De Haan @GasBuddyGuy]

U.S. SPR declines by 2.7 million barrels to 279.5 million, yes, another multi-decade low as the last 40 million barrels are now being released.

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

@carlquintanilla This is what we've been saying needs to happen. Market is now selling the rumor... It will later buy the news

[David Russell @davidjrussell]

Technology is now the #5 sector YTD!
The former leader lags energy, healthcare, consumer staples and materials.
#StockMarket #AI