David Poort

Middle East correspondent @ NOS Nieuws | Editor @ The Capitol Forum | Fmr managing editor @ AJE Digital

[Timour Azhari @timourazhari]

🚨 SAUDI DEFENSE MINISTER INVITES UAE VICE PRESIDENT TO VISIT SAUDI ARABIA ON TUESDAY - SAUDI STATE NEWS AGENCY

First visit after Saudi-UAE rift broke into the open.

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

Qatar ramped up LNG tanker traffic through Hormuz to the highest over two months 🇶🇦🚢

At least two laden carriers were sent outbound through Hormuz in the last week, while two empty ships were brought inbound

Far from pre-war flows, but an improvement

https://t.co/hbAEc9YI67

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Several Asian refiners have been told informally by Saudi Aramco they will soon be able to pick up oil from the Red Sea port of Yanbu

https://t.co/rEvsmSoifj

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

Pakistan negotiated with Iran to secure safe passage through Hormuz for another LNG shipment
🇵🇰 🤝 🇮🇷

The tanker (carrying Qatari LNG) passed Hormuz over the weekend and will reach Pakistan soon

This is the second LNG cargo Pakistan secured this month

https://t.co/AZbSukMU13

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

Qatar expects to startup its massive LNG expansion project in 2027, says Energy Minister Al Kaabi 🇶🇦 ⚠️

They were aiming for 2026 before the disruptions to Hormuz began

The move threatens to further delay the wave of new supply hitting this decade

https://t.co/rdoSH1GvL7

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

"Houthi fighters arrived in Mocha on Thursday to find Yemeni battalions that were severely depleted—their rosters were filled with 'ghost names' receiving salaries, and the actual strength of the army was only about 20% of what it was on paper." https://t.co/mStZQTzKcD

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has now confirmed it shut down its East-West oil pipeline following “multiple attacks” on Thursday. Riyadh has not provided a timeline for when the conduit would be operational again. The attacks resulted in a “number” of injuries.

[Bloomberg @business]

Qatar is in discussions to buy liquefied natural gas from US suppliers under long-term agreements as the Iran war has crippled its ability to supply its own customers, according to people familiar with the matter. https://t.co/Edczqq89EJ

[Teo Kermeliotis @Teo_Kermeliotis]

Incredibly powerful documentary by @aprokou and Nina Maria Pashalidou about #Tempe and the fight for justice and accountability - for @AJEnglish, @AJWitness

https://t.co/T3m8FDKmjW

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

Not even sure who they're trying to convince when oil is >$90 a barrel, gas prices are 30% higher than a year ago and diesel is at an all-time high

Said this before but the Gulf war feels like the moment when Trump's reality-distortion field finally broke

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

Trump says Strait of Hormuz is open. LNG traffic shows that it isn't 🚢⚠️

Barely any LNG has gone through the chokepoint since a Qatari tanker was attacked in early July. That's pushed LNG prices in Europe and Asia to a war-time high

https://t.co/ySOt2FXUAQ

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

We're at a point where neither side has a coherent theory of victory in the Gulf war.

On the one hand "mowing the lawn" is a tactical plan, not a strategy. It commits America to a prolonged, expensive operation to oversee and secure Hormuz transits.

Even if the administration is correct that 8-10m bpd is exiting the strait, crude is a narrow metric. There's still almost no movement of LNG or refined products, nor of the bulk carriers and container ships that supply the GCC with imported goods. So the status quo imposes a steep cost on Gulf states as well.

At the same time, if Iran can't get the headline price of oil to catastrophic levels, Trump is unlikely to feel much pressure to make a deal. Especially since he seems to have dismissed concerns from within his own party and written off the midterms.

Meanwhile, the blockade will continue to inflict pain on Iran. Instead of trading its Hormuz card for economic benefits, the regime is holding onto it at enormous cost.

Nothing about the status quo looks sustainable—and yet neither side seems to have a way to break it.

[David Poort @davidpoort]

@glcarlstrom Same

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

Thought it might be difficult to catch up on the news after a few weeks on holiday, but fortunately we're stuck in a loop where the same headlines just keep repeating

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne says oil is flowing the Strait of Hormuz “very quietly,” and his company is largest trader of Iraqi/Qatari crude.

Pouyanne says it costs ~$20 million per VLCC per SoH passage (including return) in freight and insurance. TotalEnergies is buying crude inside Persian Gulf at ~$50-$60 a barrel as producers are “desperate” for lifters, making the process profitable.

[Barry R McCaffrey @mccaffreyr3]

In my judgement, the US Armed Forces have probably permanently lost access to 15 Persian Gulf bases. Iran now poised to control access the Gulf States. US will have to negotiate new access in western Saudi Arabia, Israel, southern Europe.

[Financial Times @FT]

Qatar cuts state spending at home and abroad as war shrinks economy https://t.co/qtu4dCuuJt

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

Qatar’s LNG production will be capped until Hormuz reopens

(And LNG traffic in Hormuz is essentially shut)

[Bloomberg @business]

Europe’s reserves of natural gas are back in focus as the Iran war makes it more difficult to replenish inventories ahead of the winter. Here’s what to know. https://t.co/DJVKW8Ngsm

[Drop Site @DropSiteNews]

⭕️ Axios reported earlier that Qatari mediators held separate talks Saturday with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Omani officials to secure an agreement reopening the strait. A source said the talks made some progress, but it remains unclear whether that will be enough to end the Hormuz crisis.