David_R_B

Business Owner and Investor

[Myles McNulty @MylesMcNulty]

Three UK-listed stocks, $200m - $500m range: $MKA $AVCT $IES.

NdFeB magnets. Precision oncology (okay, perhaps not up your street!). Energy storage.

All absurdly undervalued relative to US / other international peers, primarily due to the UK investment community being atrocious at attributing any proper value to growth / pre-revenue stocks.

.......

1) Mkango #MKA (43p, $222m mkt cap):

A vertically integrated rare earths pure play - mining, refining, magnet recycling, magnet making. Key competitive advantage being patented, world-class (lowest cost and most energy efficient) NdFeB magnet recycling technology.

Original asset is a near-construction ready mine in Malawi. Backed by US DFC ($5m grant to complete FEED, then a further $100m loan for mine construction being considered). Fully permitted and safe jurisdiction (for Africa!).

Also is developing a rare earths separation plant (processing / refining) in Poland. Both have been designated EU CRMA Strategic Projects and are also very likely to secure major financing from governments, besides the US. These two projects are being spun out onto NASDAQ - $MKAR - likely to complete next month, at a valuation of circa $500m. See $CRML mkt cap ($1.5bn) for likely closest comp.

The other (more valuable!) half of Mkango’s business is HyProMag - which has a technology that recycles end-of-life permanent magnets without the use of chemicals (which all other REE recyclers must use). It uses hydrogen to break down the magnets into a demagnetised fine powder, which can then sieved and then repressed and sintered back into brand new magnets.

HyProMag now has two recycling / remanufacturing plants operating in the UK and Germany; and is shortly to announce financing and commencement of construction at its first plant in the US. Ultimately wants to build out 6-7 plants across the US, and evaluating plans to roll out plants in Japan, Canada and South Korea.

Expecting big news on HyProMag USA progress in the coming weeks, which may include a second NASDAQ listing. Were Mkango listed on NASDAQ in its entirety right now, I estimate it'd be trading in the $1.5bn to $2.0bn range.

Robotics, data centres, EVs and the budding space industry will drive a monumental step change in NdFeB magnet demand, which all the mines under development in the world will not be able to meet. Magnet recycling / remanufacturing will be a requisite. HyProMag's patented process can ensure it becomes a global market leader, in time.

Key risk is securing further financing for global rollout programme, which is trickier with a tiny mkt cap (relative to overseas peer group). My view is that $USAR is already lining up a bid, given that its CEO has recently stated her ambition to acquire further downstream / magnet businesses.

[Search "mylesmcnulty MKA" for a fair whack of research on the stock in recent times!]

......

2) Avacta Group #AVCT (73p, $461m mkt cap):

UK-based precision oncology business. Owns the "pre|CISION delivery platform", which the company believes to be the most targeted delivery platform for drugs treating solid tumors, ever developed. In layman's terms, super-charged chemotherapy without the side-effects.

That alone should be a monster attraction for investors; but then Avacta can also boast that the platform can be used to modify almost any anti-cancer drug on the market (dramatically reducing side-effects of the original drug, whilst simultaneously boosting efficacy); AND that pre|CISION modified drugs can be used to treat circa 85% of all types of cancer cases.

Its first candidate in the clinic, AVA6000 (modified version of doxorubucin) has been in a P1a/b for just short of 5 years now (only just wrapping up), with a pivotal Phase 2/3 to commence in H2 for salivary gland cancer (for starters).

The second candidate, AVA6103 (modified version of the much more potent drug, exatecan), commenced its Phase 1 three months ago. In extensive pre-clinical data presented this year, Avacta demonstrated that 6103 not just outperformed, but completely obliterated the leading antibody-drug conjugates on the market (including the market leader, Enhertu).

Across a range of animal models, it boasted a complete response rate of >90%. The three key attributes of the pre|CISION platform (industry-leading targeting; ability to modify almost any drug; able to target c.85% of all cancer types) - backed up by numerous other complementary advantages (such as significantly lower manufacturing cost of a pre|CISION peptide-drug conjugate relative to a conventional ADC; and superior tissue penetration owing to much smaller molecular size of a PDC relative to an ADC) - will in my view ensure that the owner of the platform could dominate global oncology for decades to come.

If AVA6103 merely replicates the data generated in pre-clinical models, it is straightforward to perceive how it could become an all-time best selling oncology drug.

Key risk? As with Mkango, it is financing the various workstreams. I believe multiple commercial partnerships could be announced in H2 (Big Pharma using the platform to enhance their own existing drugs), which could bring in significant non-dilutive funding.

Were Avacta listed on NASDAQ right now, I estimate it'd be in the $2bn to $3bn range, based on the peer group. Any sniff of 6103 replicating the animal model data, in the ongoing P1 trial, over the next 6 months, then the sky really is the limit for the share price.

.......

3) Invinity Energy Systems #IES (37p, $280m mkt cap):

A global manufacturer of vanadium flow batteries (VFBs), the leading non-lithium, utility-grade long-duration energy storage technology. Its modular systems are already deployed or contracted across more than 90 sites in 17 countries on five continents, and have discharged thousands of MWh in real-world operation.

Core competitive advantage is the inherent chemistry of VFBs: non-flammable and incapable of thermal runaway (critical for data centres, industrial sites and dense urban deployments), zero degradation over 20,000+ deep cycles, and a 20–30+ year operational life that matches the asset life of solar and wind farms. This delivers the lowest levelised cost of storage for high-throughput, long-duration applications.

The new Endurium platform (launched late 2024) further improves energy density, round-trip efficiency and cost, enabling GWh-scale projects, while Endurium Enterprise (smaller configuration) targets the fast-growing commercial & industrial (C&I) segment.

Recent project momentum has been awesome:

- Delivery of the 20.7 MWh Copwood VFB Energy Hub in the UK, Europe’s largest operating VFB.

- 32 MWh sale to Pacific Steel Group’s new Mojave Micro Mill in California (North America’s largest VFB, California Energy Commission-backed) for sustainable rebar production.

- Multiple Endurium wins including 20 MWh in Hungary (solar-plus-storage) and several US projects (including a 12 MWh system for Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and a 2 MWh DOE-funded project in Wisconsin).

- Most significantly, selection by Switzerland’s FlexBase Group to design and deliver the world’s largest flow battery - up to 1.5 GWh, with potential expansion to 2.1 GWh - for a major new AI data centre and technology campus in Laufenburg.

This last one is a landmark validation for the technology in the exact high-value use case (data centres + renewables integration + grid services) that is exploding globally.

Invinity also has 16.7 GWh of Endurium projects confirmed eligible under the UK’s LDES Cap & Floor scheme (with awards expected from 2026), plus active engagement in equivalent procurement programmes in the US, Canada and elsewhere. The company is expanding manufacturing (UK base plus plans for US, India and regional partnerships) and aggressively driving cost reduction.

The market tailwinds are enormous. Renewables penetration, grid modernisation and, crucially, the power demands of AI data centres and hyperscale computing require vast amounts of safe, long-duration storage that lithium-ion struggles to serve economically or safely at scale. VFBs are uniquely positioned for these high-cycle, long-duration, safety-critical applications.

Invinity, as the most experienced Western pure-play with proven deployments and a newly optimised product, is exceptionally well placed to capture a material share.

Key risk remains scaling manufacturing and supply chain fast enough to convert the pipeline into revenue while managing cash burn. I suspect another equity raise in the next 12 months is inevitable.

As with the above two tickers, our dullard UK investment community refuses to see the big picture unfolding here. I estimate that the company would be pushing $1bn mkt cap, were it listed on NASDAQ.

Invinity has been a serial loser in the past, in terms of downgrade after downgrade to forecasts; but I now believe we could start seeing analysts upgrade their numbers in the coming months, such is the momentum building.

Current consensus has revenue of $320m for 2028 (first year of profitability), on an EV/EBITDA of 7x.

[⛏🅾️Ⓜ️💣 @tom_the_bomb__]

#AVCT @avacta has referenced interest across all generations of preCISION.

Where do you think we'll be in 12 months?

[Myles McNulty @MylesMcNulty]

Such a positive move by Avacta #AVCT in raising £9m at this point in time.

In deploying the cash to settle the delayed repayments (from January and April 2026) of the Heights Convertible Bond, as well as the repayment due late next month, the company is significantly reducing equity dilution that it otherwise would have faced.

To note, a single institution accounted for the majority of the cash injection. A major positive.

The CB has been an anchor around the share price for years now, and was arguably the single worst strategic decision that the old board made, in tandem with the two Diagnostics acquisitions that the £55m CB funded (it essentially cost both the old CEO and the old chairman, their jobs).

So it's a huge relief to see our new chairman work to immediately and substantially reduce that liability. Post settlement of the repayments due (in cash) next month, the remaining outstanding CB will amount to only £11.5m, with the next repayment instalment not due until late October. I would presume that in the event of no major cash injection from non-dilutive means over the next few months, mgmt will simply be able to tap the company's growing base of instos for a quick £3m before each of the remaining handful of repayments, in order to continue to settle in cash and thus minimize unnecessary dilution.

In short: in my view the toxic CB is no longer a concern at all to shareholders.

Constant anxiety over the balance sheet will hopefully be consigned to history now; and the market can really focus on the astonishing technology that Avacta has developed:

The most targeted anticancer drug delivery platform ever developed; which can be used to deliver almost any warhead ever developed; to circa 85% of all cancer cases.

Those three key attributes of the pre|CISION platform - backed up by numerous other complementary advantages (such as significantly lower manufacturing cost of a pre|CISION peptide-drug conjugate relative to a conventional antibody-drug conjugate; and superior tissue penetration owing to much smaller molecular size of a PDC relative to an ADC) - will in my view ensure that the owner of the platform could dominate global oncology for decades to come.

If Avacta's second drug in clinic, AVA6103, merely replicates the data generated in pre-clinical models, it is straightforward to perceive how it could become an all-time best selling oncology drug.

The company has given numerous indications that everything is going well so far in the 6103 trial. The first patient was dosed almost ten weeks ago. The directors who will best understand the science and recent clinical progress (and early data they have seen) have taken part in this equity raise.

All the signals are there.

Personally looking for sentiment around the stock to build rapidly now that the Convertible Bond has been largely whittled down, and the SP has a clear run in he coming weeks at >£1. And from there, who knows!

[Richard Hughes @hughesy0707]

Delighted to be appointed as chairman of #AVCT

My core priority is to ensure the value of preCISION is exploited to its fullest, for the benefit of all shareholders.

I am more than confident we have the team and the intellectual property to enable this.

[David_R_B @davidrbryant8]

@avacta Delighted to hear that Richard Hughes has been appointed Chairman of #AVCT. Richard’s track record is super impressive and is the perfect person to lead the board at such a pivotal moment. The business is preparing itself for some monumental times ahead 💥

[Myles McNulty @MylesMcNulty]

Hi Josh, I don't have any selling levels on #AVCT for my core holding, as I think the upside is, for all intents and purposes, unlimited now from a $460m mkt cap.

AVA6103 could be a $40, $50, $60 billion per annum drug - and that's just if the pre-clinical data is matched in the clinic.

There is almost every reason to think that it will in fact be surpassed, as was pointed out by @avacta during the recent Science Day.

Big Pharma is paying what, 3-6x peak sales for acquirees' lead candidate?

And in my view, 6103 is considerably more derisked than most seem to think.

To revert to your question: my target is to hold until an offer is accepted by >75% of shareholders, and I'm forced to sell!

But given how many retail holders - which makes up >95% of the register - is invested fully (not just capital-wise but sentimentally too), I think the final price that the likes of AstraZeneca, Novartis, Merck etc. will have to pay will be incredibly high.

P.S. selloff today is almost certainly due to a dozen or so traders exiting in order to chase MKA and IES. All very predictable. Alas, nothing to be done (except of course take advantage of the dip, if one has spare capital! N.B. not investment advice blah blah blah! 😂).

[David_R_B @davidrbryant8]

@piersmorgan

[TVR5 @TVR5AVCT]

It is increasingly clear #AVCT has sufficient confirmation to state they believe their Generation 2 technology is working as designed.

[stonks @JStonker]

https://t.co/0K4oyY0d6o

#AVCT

[Myles McNulty @MylesMcNulty]

Agreed, very intrigued.

The #AVCT bull thesis will be confirmed (or invalidated!) in the next few months. I personally think mgmt. has a very good idea whether it has been or not already, based on the first few weeks of data coming out of the 6103 trial.

Going on the positive tones both in formal RNS and in statements on X (such as ⬆️), I'm of the view that mgmt. knows the 2nd Gen platform additions (capping group + linker) are working at least as well as anticipated.

In the event that 2nd Gen is shortly proved by 6103... then I do hope we shareholders can band together and hold out for a monster exit value. pre | CISION could hold a quasi-monopoly over the global oncology industry for 2-4 decades, owing to its three core attributes:

1) most targeted delivery platform (dramatically boosting efficacy whilst simultaneously reducing/removing side effects);

2) most flexible delivery platform (can modify/improve almost any anti-cancer therapeutic);

3) most widely applicable delivery platform (can be used to treat circa 85% of all cancer cases).

The longer Avacta remains independent, the higher it goes. In the event that 6103 is a success and validates the Gen2 additions, pre|CISION is very likely to become the foundation of one of the Tier 1's oncology franchises. Will it be #AZN $AZN? $LLY? $MRK? $NVS?

[⛏🅾️Ⓜ️💣 @tom_the_bomb__]

@SeanDentBsc I caught up with my friend Mr GPT, and he likes your comparison to Prometheus, Sean.

The next few weeks and months are key for the eventual company value.

(The below uses L.E.K Consulting & Peel Hunt forecasts for AVA6000).

#AVCT @avacta

[RAH @RAH00084]

@Anthony__VR #AVCT

Yellow is proven.

Pink is unproven.

AVA6000 is delivering a known toxic with such precision the FDA has lifted its cardiac dosing limit. The 1st time ever for a P1 drug.

There is nothing left to prove in AVA6000, beyond how good its PFS is (currently x2 the benchmark).

[Mark Mitchell @emily1katie]

Followed #AVCT for half a decade. Know how to read the room. Unlikely Chris Coughlin is grinning from ear to ear if AVA6103 is not extending release. See some of you at Science Day!

[Myles McNulty @MylesMcNulty]

Look across the pond at UK-listed @avacta $AVCT #AVCT.

Targeted oncology.

Its pre|CISION platform can be used to modify practically any anti-cancer small molecule or biologic, into a peptide-drug conjugate.

These PDCs can be used to target around 85% of all types of cancer cases.

Two drugs in the clinic. One to kick off a Pivotal Phase 2/3 trial this summer; the second drug having just commenced a Phase 1 trial.

The uber bull case is that pre|CISION PDCs eventually displace the large majority of the existing and anticipated ADC market. PDCs...

- are significantly more targeted than ADCs;
- are much lower cost (as don't require an expensive biologic such as a mAb);
- have broader applicability (almost tumour agnostic - see 85% fig above);
- have broader versatility (the Avacta scientists can modify practically any warhead with pre|CISION);
- have superior tumour penetration and tissue diffusion, owing to their smaller size.

In fact, it is difficult to point out a single major advantage that the existing class of ADCs enjoys over Avacta's PDCs.

If the second drug in clinic - AVA6103, a modified version of the all-powerful warhead, exatecan - replicates the published pre-clinical data (22/24 complete responses in various animals models - a CR rate of 92%), it has the real potential to blow Enhertu (and even Keytruda) out the water.

By virtue of Avacta's UK listing, this opportunity exists. The UK investment community is a shadow of what it once was - it lacks depth, breadth, and many of its participants do not possess the intellectual curiosity and/or risk tolerance for pre-revenue / lossmaking entities.

Were Avacta listed on NASDAQ right now, I would suggest it'd be valued at at least 10x its current mkt cap of $363m.

[Myles McNulty @MylesMcNulty]

#AVCT raises £10m at 63p, to extend cash runway into 2027, whilst retaining 100% interests in both AVA6000 and AVA6103 (with first patient due to be dosed for the latter's P1 trial, within the next week).

The standout for me is NED Richard Hughes putting in £500k (with another NED putting in a further £50k).

The last time RH injected a significant amount of cash into @avacta was almost exactly 6 years ago (£1m at 18p). The stock spiked to a high of 210p in less than two months of that buy-in - an almost 12x gain (before going on to hit a high of 290p in the following 12 months).

Lightening does occasionally strike twice!

Really delighted with this raise. I think many on the sidelines have been holding back from buying, due to concerns over the need for a cash injection. With this raise completed, I see volumes cranking back up again.

Precedent transactions point to a valuation for AVCT at this stage in the several $ billions.

If AVA6103 can replicate its astonishing pre-clinical data, those precedent transactions could be child's play compared to where Avacta's mkt cap could go over the next couple of years.

[Avacta @avacta]

Proposed Placing via an accelerated bookbuild and Subscription to raise approximately £10 million. https://t.co/xvsjLEWu51 #AVCT

[TVR5 @TVR5AVCT]

Thank you for the link.

The terminology overlap between the #AVCT CEO’s xDC reference and Novartis’s xDC Team is not a coincidence.

https://t.co/82l4mm3Ll7

Re-posting both tweets in this thread instead for ease of reference.

[Myles McNulty @MylesMcNulty]

It's also often forgotten that #AVCT's pre|CISION platform can target (at least) one of the three main blood cancers, namely Multiple Myeloma.

MM accounts for circa 14% of all blood cancer cases worldwide.

Just adding another >$20 billion per annum to pre|CISION's TAM, for good measure...!

[TVR5 @TVR5AVCT]

As the market slowly digests the significance of #AVCT going after the leading ADC via AVA6103, consider the FDA’s recent decision to remove the cardiac dosing limit for AVA6000 renders Fast Track approval for the Salivary Gland Cancer indication a near certainty.