Davis Swan

I am an innovator dedicated to the well-being of my family and the sustainable economic and environmental health of the planet.

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

What are the Worst Case Scenarios for Iran, Israel, and the United States coming out of the Iran "Excursion". It is likely the state of play in the entire Middle East is about to change pretty dramatically but what will the new end state look like? In a new substack post I discuss just how badly things could go for all belligerents. https://t.co/6n99FYZ7yg

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

Are you confused, frustrated, perplexed by the endless claims by Trump that the Iranians are desperate for a deal and that a deal is close? Here is the simple truth. The deal that Trump could accept is a fantasy. Iran would prefer to return to a hot war and see what happens. They do not want to be attacked again and yet they know that is pretty much unavoidable. There is no deal because there is no deal to be had. That is the bottom line. https://t.co/KQGFVA5UQh

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

Here is my latest conjecture. Iran has become increasingly belligerent over the past week. I believe they actually would prefer to return to a "hot" war. The IRGC has also warned that a new chapter would include "new, undisclosed weapons and methods of warfare". Both Russia and China have in the last few years developed hyper-sonic anti-shipping weapons which the U.S. military has admitted it has no defence again. My conclusion is that Iran now has some of these weapons and whoever provided them would love the opportunity to test them against the U.S. fleet. Therefore the most likely result is that even a limited restart of U.S. aggression against Iran could lead to a devastating attack on American naval assets in the Gulf of Oman.

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

It would be difficult to imagine how you could motivate Iran more forcefully to manufacture a nuclear weapon than the attacks of February 28 2026. A program that has proceeded in fits and starts may very well now race to its logical conclusion - https://t.co/SOiQZYorgC

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

Is Iran being Stupidly Stubborn? Their hesitation to even talk about a possible deal might seem a little crazy given the destruction being threatened by Donald J. Trump. "End of a Civilization" is a pretty intimidating result. But actually there is method to their madness.
https://t.co/WAYs1uLhyo

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

@FareedZakaria Your interviews and insights are very much appreciated. I think the fundamental issues underlying the war in Iran are being ignored in favour of tactical analysis. You might find my latest post of interest https://t.co/USX5k1XRxm

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

@davidfrum You might find my latest post on the Iran war of interest https://t.co/USX5k1XRxm

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

@jonstewart I love your work - it is important not because it is truthful but because it is accessible - you are able to reach people through humour that would otherwise be disengaged. Well done. I thought you might be interested in my post about the Iran war - it might be prescient or it might be B.S. - time will tell https://t.co/QDBks1OhZE

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

@MMFlint I want to express my sincere thanks to you for all the work you have done over the years to expose truths that many would rather keep hidden out of sight. The fact that you have done so in an entertaining fashion is a huge bonus. I hope you are working on a new project. Given the crazy events in the world today I thought you might be interested to read my post on the Iran war. https://t.co/QDBks1OhZE

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

@DavidBrooks224 Mr. Brooks - I have great respect for your opinions and highly value your principles and faith based approach. However, I think that your insightful analysis of the war with Iran is overlooking the fundamental underlying issue. I invite you to take a look at my post on the topic. https://t.co/QDBks1OhZE

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

Why the United States cannot win the Iran War
I discuss this at length in a new post. The problem for Donald Trump is that he does not understand what war he is fighting. https://t.co/USX5k1XRxm

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

@MarkJCarney Here is the two minute deal. BYD takes control of the Ingersol plant that GM is abandoning. For every car produced in Canada 2 cars built in China can be imported tarriff free

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

The U.S. military has done a lot of crazy shit ($2 Trillion committed to F35 program) but this one wins first prize. A nuclear powered base under the Greenland Ice Cap abandoned in 1966 - 6 years worth of nuclear waste slowly being pushed toward the sea https://t.co/Dpwt32ftOh

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

@ianhanomansing Hey Ian - there is a story mainstream media seems to be missing completely. Camp Century was an UNDER ICE base built in Greenland and powered by a nuclear reactor. Abandoned in 1966 leaving 6 years worth of nuclear waste now edging towards the sea.

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

Many people seem mystified by the re-election of Donald J. Trump. IMHO the election was not really about Trump but about the failure of the Democrats. See my analysis https://t.co/kulnpQiNPM - See also Ezra Klein's excellent podcast with John Stewart https://t.co/u3K9h1rGBr

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

@Pras_S If you have aspirations towards being a respected journalist you need to control your anti-Tesla bias. European sales dropped but Chinese sales had their best week in any first qtr and Q1-2025 now exceeds Q1-2024. How about reporting that?

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

Trump may actually accomplish some things that many people will support. The lesson would be that a pig-headed bully can actually make things happen. And that would be a troubling prospect for future elections.
https://t.co/q6qpc1cK4P

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

@shellenberger My take on what went wrong for Dems which applies to most "progressives" in the world these days. Lack of respect for ordinary folk and lack of empathy towards legitimate fears about the future https://t.co/wo5334VwCW

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

@shellenberger Watched your TED talk on renewables. I agree that we probably can never eliminate the need for hydro-carbon (or possibly green hydrogen) backup to renewables. But we can realistically drastically reduce this dependence. https://t.co/4lJy6xMvZS

[Davis Swan @davis_swan]

@JimCameron Just watched the mythbusters episode on the Titanic (yes I know late to the party). I have always thought there was a way to save most of the passengers by removing the wooden cabin doors and making a sandwich of two doors with life jackets in between