Nordic Capital

Here for FinTwit. Currently in PE. Previously multi-strategy fund manager, M&A & restructuring.

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

@alexandr_wang @natfriedman Iceland is waiting! Hopefully soon

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

@MattPRD @Muse Would love to get Muse to Iceland

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

@einasig Vinnutimi hefur lækkað mjög siðustu arin (stytting vinnuviku plus val) a Islandi. Skekkir töluna verulega

[Barbell Investment Ideas @barbell_ideas]

$mpti - judging based on today’s stock performance so far, there seems to be an abundance of US interceptor missiles rn …

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

@TradexWhisperer Thoughts on Rambus especially DDR5 RDIMM?

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

@OfficialLoganK @GoogleAIStudio Would love to get access!

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

@TheValueist Thoughts on $SIMO? Love your writeups btw

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

@rev_cap Ev/fcf (less sbc) tells a completely different story. Uncertainty regarding roic on capex

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

🚨🚨 BESSENT, ASKED ABOUT REMOVING CHINESE STOCKS FROM U.S. EXCHANGES: EVERYTHING'S ON THE TABLE -FOX BUSINESS NETWORK INTERVIEW

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

@nickgiva1 Thoughts on ultras at these levels?

[Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian]

Fantastic.

[Paulo Macro @PauloMacro]

My buddies are on fire today - hard to keep up

[James Surowiecki @JamesSurowiecki]

Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.

So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

$OPRA Lower organic traffic to search Google potentially bullish Opera? Should be able to get higher rates from Google as they have a higher need to drive traffic. Own ad inventory owned by Opera should go up in price as traffic goes to AI chatbots. Users still need browsers.

[Rihard Jarc @RihardJarc]

Significant developments are occurring in the ad tech field, as explained by an SEO expert, along with my take on the matter. Important for $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN investors.

A SEO expert shares a few points that he is seeing right now:

1. Within the last 6-8 months, there has been a decline in search engines providing traffic to e-commerce companies, both large and small. $GOOGL is still the major provider of both paid and non-paid traffic, but it's getting lower.

2. He thinks some of it is also self-inflicted by $GOOGL, as they are now providing a different preview within the search results. From the e-commerce experience, where they allow you to filter straight from the search results to AI overviews, to a more significant focus on user-generated content from social media and Reddit.

3. He sees click-through rates declining on both organic and paid traffic.

4. The traffic lost in this hasn't been picked up by other places such as ChatGPT or Perplexity, so marketers are mostly scratching their heads in terms of where those people are going.

5. He thinks companies like $WMT and others will now have to do more work on their branding and rely more on paid ads to drive traffic, which may increase top-line marketing budgets.

6. He doesn't think this impact is small, and he believes many other companies that relied on organic traffic from $GOOGL will follow a path similar to Chegg, where they are now a declining company.

I think this is one of the most important topics right now in ad tech, as consumer behavior is shifting. I think in the future, organic traffic will continue to shrink, and prices for paid search on $GOOGL will increase. At the same time, as the inventory on Search traffic shrinks (especially organic), companies will increase their focus on social media, such as $META (with both organic and paid efforts), and on platforms where people start their online shopping journey, like $AMZN. Brand advertising and social media will become even more critical.

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

+10% since tweet in an soft market. Very early innings. Will probably re-rate in 18 months from an AI looser to an AI winner as its as of now one of best AI use case. Very strong FCF and modest SBC. $NICE

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

Pessimism surrounding $NICE seem very excessive. TV risk due to seat based reduction and increased competition from new AI solutions (including META) but also upsell opportunity. Recent expert calls suggest decent growth near term with AI upsell representing 30% price increase.

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

@Sophoninvest $Genl (london listing)

[Coup d'état Capital @CapitalCoochie]

Takeaways from Enterprise Connect in Orlando, FL this week. 1) $NICE and Genesys are maintaining share at the enterprise level 2) live agent seats aren't going down in the near term, and 3) Data and integration are the primary focus for organizations to get an ROI w/ AI.

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

@DeepSailCapital Rambus?

[Nordic Capital @davste86]

@quattronecap @TwannsWorld A possible outcome, one of many. Just feels like the bear case is fully priced in IMO given EV/FCF 26e (excl sbc) ca 9-10x. Feels like the skew is good given almost 20% of ev in net cash at year and valuation. If growth holds up and fcf comes in, very easily >50% over time