Barry Dawes

Helping investors profit in the resources sector
Many years experience commodity and equity research [email protected] #gold #copper #ASX #commodities

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

#Mining #Commodities
Updating this six years later

@DawesPoints Global Boom on track

Commodity prices over the next decade need to reflect:

1 3,400m in Asia improving living standards

2 High mine capacity utilisation rates in many resources

3 Low stocks of finished products

4 Inadequate inventory of undeveloped mining resources
#gold #copper #silver #lithium #LNG

$XAU $GLD $GDX $BHP

Market sentiment for Resources Stocks says:

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

An introduction to what our politicians have put us into.

A$235bn low coupon COVID 2020 bonds will be maturing and need refinancing at A$78-88bnpa over the next 5yrs.

From 0.9% to >4.8%.

But Jimbo is running A$70bnpa Deficits so it will be A$150bnpa.

The debt will be rising but he actually needs to SELL A$150bnpa in bonds to the market.

Who will be buying them?

What if he can’t sell them all?

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@keithmarlowau Liar. Indeed a complete liar.

Just another imbecilic ideologue.

Ideology is the enemy of wisdom.

Ideology is an illusion for those of weak minds.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@GrahamY The PRRT and the Bougainville Agreement.

More Garnaut disasters.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@frankeff65 @judyshel Yes.

But the gold backing protects the capital.

WHEN (not IF!) the US gets a balanced Budget by ~late 2027 US Treasuries will be the place to be.

9 consecutive declines in YoY monthly Outlays.

The true Contrarian View!

No one owns any LT bonds!

Gold demand has collapsed.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@judyshel A 1% coupon 30 year Gold TBond issued at $5bn/qtr would be sufficient.

Every Treasury security would be ranked against it.

Would become the new Gold Standard without a new Bretton Woods Agreement & without EU meddling.

Would force the world to follow & would end Socialism.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@frankeff65 @judyshel If you look at bond markets around the world you will see disaster after disaster unfolding.

Massive COVID 2020 low coupon mountains needing refinancing yet still running big deficits

No way out for them.

Token US LT bond series backed by gold would change everything.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@frankeff65 @judyshel I think you are missing the point.

1% real return and capital guaranteed in gold would be the world’s best bond.

Would affect every other bond to be ever issued anywhere in the world.

Would become the Gold Standard.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@JamesLNuzzo @Matt_Camenzuli Diversity

Female Heads of Departments

Feminocracy

GG

RBA

Treasury

Defence

Agriculture

AFP

DFAT

AG

Employment

Veterans Affairs.

Home Affairs

Army

Were the best appointed?

All Albo appointments.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@frankeff65 @judyshel Face value denominated as say 0.25 oz (= $1000 today) with par value guaranteed payable in US$ at the end of 30 years.

1%pa paid in US$ at market gold price in six month intervals.

Would be real capital guaranteed and 1% real yield.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@JimThom90458694 Just wait until they try to sell their bonds totaling ~A$150bn in FY27 (then A$150bnpa for next 4 yrs).

Aust banks will be concerned about housing on their balance sheets so will be reluctant to buy more.

You Super will soon have the old 30/20 Rule reinstated.

20% Cwth Bonds!

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@TheDailyGold The focus should be on Japan, Europe and UK.

Bond yields rising and no action on Deficits - in contrast to US.

The 2020 low coupon COVID bonds now need refinancing.

Those currencies collapsing.

Yet why has gold demand in all these countries/regions been so weak?

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@TheDailyGold Interesting that both short and long term yields are falling.

All are well below their peaks.

And the major currencies are resuming LT bear markets against the US$.

50 year uptrends breached.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

Maybe not.

Budget Repair is underway

9 consecutive monthly YoY declines in Federal Outlays.

Maturity profile shows 50% Treasuries maturing by end 2028.

ST market rates turning down.

<3% soon?

LT rates following.

Rapid decline possible in ave int rate.

No stock available 10-12 yrs

No one owns them.

If Budget Repair continues and after Mid Terms win by GOP then Balanced Budget by end 2027

Stampede into LT T Bonds @ < 3%.

Heresy.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@goldseek US has had 9 consecutive mths of declining YOY Outlays.

Looking to balanced Budget by end 2027.

Yen in terminal decline.

Eurozone has Debt Wall from 2020 COVID so Deficits and refinancing require massive bond issuance 2026-31.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@JordanEliseo I have to admit I do not understand why WGC gives two subgroups in CB category.

Who are the others and why?

Bar and coin gains were mostly China and India.

But Jewellry &amp; investment (incl ETFs) for each was 100t lower in 2025.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

Demand from CBs &amp; ETFs is supposed to be &gt;2,000t in 2026 to offset losses from jewelry in absorbing supply of ~3,700t new mine and ~1,300t `scrap'.

Neither look like achieving anywhere near that.

Both are likely to be net sellers in 2026.

Parabolic peaks are parabolic PEAKS

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@JordanEliseo Just the numbers Jordan.

WGC says CBs are about 300tpa and `other institutions' are another 500tpa.

WGC CBs are just net ~20t YTD.

Who are these `others'?

Western bar and coin have been very weak since 2024.

Asia may be different.

ETFs look awful and could SELL 500t.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@s14722839 And in FY27 Jimbo is going to have to sell A$78bn in refinancing of 0.9% 2020 COVID bonds and another ~A$70bn to cover his Deficit at &gt;4.8%.

And A$150bnpa for the next five years.

Your interest rates are going much higher.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@GreyRabbitFin Central banks will probably be net sellers in 2026.

[Barry Dawes @DawesPoints]

@BlackAlex58 @YouTube Just as CB demand is weak the ETFs NEED to buy &gt;1000t.

YTD is woeful.

Both CBs and ETFs are likely to be SELLERS.